Storm Man Sizes Up 2001

December 7, 2000 / 8:17 AM EST / AP

Next year's Atlantic hurricane season will be relatively quiet after six years of record activity.

That's according to hurricane forecaster William Gray, who has a more than respectable record when it comes to predicting this type of natural fury.

Professor Gray and his associates at Colorado State University expect nine named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes in 2001.

The 1950-90 average is 9.3 named storms, 5.8 hurricanes and 2.2 major hurricanes per year.

The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Gray said that while the 2001 season seems likely to be milder than five of the past six years, it should still exceed activity in the surprisingly quiet period of 1970-94, when population and property grew at a rapid pace along the southeastern U.S. coast and Florida.

Last year, the Colorado State team's final update in August called for 11 named storms, seven hurricanes and three intense hurricanes. The 2000 season wrapped up Nov. 30 with 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and three intense hurricanes.

Gray estimates the probability of one or more major hurricanes making landfall along the U.S. coastline in 2001 at 63 percent. The past century's average is 52 percent. For the East Coast and Florida peninsula, the 2001 average will be 43 percent, compared with 31 percent for the past century.

The Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas, has a major storm landfall probability of 36 percent compared with 30 percent for the century.