Starting Gate: Rules Are Funny Things
4040204George W. Bush won a second term by winning 286 Electoral Votes (16 over the 270 threshold required) in 2004. It was a landslide considering that he first took office by virtue of a Supreme Court decision that settled the Florida fiasco in his favor in 2000 – even though he came in second in the popular vote. In a plot twist even Hollywood wouldn't buy, the party which has spent eight years in anger over a process they feel robbed them of the White House is now immersed in a nominating maze of its own making that is sure to leave some of their party feeling disenfranchised once again.
Like the 2000 recount mess and aftermath, perceptions are going to count for a lot. And, despite the insistence of many pundits and observers, it's not Hillary Clinton who is winning that battle. The conventional wisdom of the race has boiled down to this in the wake of Clinton's 10-point victory in Pennsylvania Tuesday night: Barack Obama will finish the primary season with a narrow lead in pledged delegates won throughout the process, more states in his column and most likely a statistically slight edge in the popular vote (even if Florida and Michigan are counted).
Therefore, Clinton cannot become the Democratic nominee, right? If the Democratic Party "rules" everyone talks about stipulated that whichever candidate has a delegate lead at the end of the primaries becomes the nominee, that assumption would be correct. But the rules say that a candidate has to get to the magic number of 2,025 delegates to lock up the nomination – and neither candidate can get there without adding some superdelegates to their column.
Now, when it comes to these free-agent delegates who will end this race one way or another, there are no rules governing them. They can support whichever candidate they please and can switch their allegiances on a whim. The only vote that counts for them is the one they will cast at the Democratic convention in August.
The idea that somehow these superdelegates – whose role in the process is written into the "rules" of the game – as a group won't dare to "steal" the nomination away from Obama has become part of the accepted storyline. Just as the Clinton campaign's arguments about the unfairness of the caucus system in many states is laughable (rules are rules), the idea that superdelegates must respect any metric is likewise just spin. If these rogue agents were committed to supporting any certain outcome, Ted Kennedy and John Kerry would be supporting Clinton instead of Obama since she won their home state of Massachusetts.
In reality, it is very unlikely that Clinton will win the nomination. Party leaders aren't going to want to give Obama supporters – especially African Americans, younger voters and the new people his candidacy has attracted to the party – the bum's rush in favor of Clinton.
But he's not making it any more comfortable for them to get off the fence by losing a big, crucial state like Pennsylvania and demonstrating little ability to attract the kinds of blue-collar voters who could swing the election in November. Both candidates have locked up crucial constituencies the party needs. And unless they can be convinced to join in a dream ticket, some of them will feel unwanted by the party leaders who will decide this fight.
Until one of these candidates has collected 2,025 total delegates – something that may not happen before the end of June – the "rules" of the Democratic Party says there is no presumptive nominee regardless of who's leading in whatever measurement. Clinton's hopes of winning over enough superdelegates to get there is the longest of long shots and unless the bottom completely drops out of his campaign, Obama will almost certainly be the nominee. But until he gets there, it's worth remembering that Clinton remains in the race because the rules of the process allow her to believe there's a chance.
Tear Down That Ad? That North Carolina Republican Party ad featuring the Rev. Wright and tabbing Obama as "too extreme" for North Carolina continues to stir up plenty of talk. John McCain has called on the state party not to run the ad, scheduled to begin hitting the air next week. "We asked them not to run it," McCain told reporters yesterday. "I don't know why they do it. Obviously, I don't control them, but I'm making it very clear, as I have a couple of times in the past, that there's no place for that kind of campaigning, and the American people don't want it."
The RNC has also asked the state party to change its mind on the ad and Obama said, "I assume that if John McCain thinks that it's an inappropriate ad, that he can get them to pull it down since he's their nominee and standard-bearer." That of course will lead to a whole lot of speculation about both McCain's ability to stop it and whether Republicans are trying to have the best of both worlds on this issue – getting attention for the ad while appearing to disown it.
For their part, the NC GOP points out that this ad is being run to raise questions about the state's two Democratic gubernatorial candidates, both of whom are supporting Obama. "We have a great relation with the RNC and we fully support John McCain for president," state party spokesman Brent Woodcox said. "But this is an ad about two North Carolina candidates for governor. The ad is going to run."
Ceding Nothing: As an overwhelming underdog in North Carolina's May 6th primary, it would be tempting for Clinton to focus like a laser on Indiana which is expected to be much more competitive. But Clinton can hardly afford to be blown out in the Tarheel State if she wants to hold onto the small gains she made in Pennsylvania so she's visiting the state today for stops in several towns.
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