Starting Gate: Build It And They Will Come
Build it the candidates have, at least most of them. While some of the big names like Rudy Giuliani and John McCain made strategic decisions to basically skip the state, or at least de-emphasize its importance to their campaigns, most have put their all into it. Months filled with stump speeches, question and answer sessions and the ingestion of just about any kind of food you can think of that could possibly be served on a stick at the state's fairs, they have "built it."
But will "they" come? Campaign operatives and political observers of all stripes have spent the better part of the last two days chewing over the results of the Des Moines Register poll which, if accurate in its findings on turnout, signals a dramatic shift in voting behavior in the state. The most striking findings were among likely Democratic caucus goers. The poll showed that, among those who said they were likely to caucus, 60 percent would be attending one for the very first time and 40 percent were identified as Independents.
For a process in the past dominated by a relatively small core of party activists, having so many first-timers and independents would be nothing less than shocking. Campaign operatives quickly questioned the poll's turnout predictions, with even the Barack Obama campaign sounding cautious about a poll which showed their candidate with a sizable lead. Pundits are quick to point out that other polls, taken around the same time, show the race much closer.
Much of the debate has been about the intricate details of polling – which lists are used, how independents are identified, etc. But those arguments may be missing the bigger picture, which is that it is not inconceivable that the presidential campaigns have "built" something unique in Iowa.
For Obama, first-time Independents have been a focus of his outreach efforts, for Clinton, it's been first-time women. With the unprecedented micro-level of targeting individuals for the caucuses – and more time spent at it than ever before – it shouldn't be a shock to anyone that this year's voters would look quite a bit different than they have in the past.
"Iowa? I could have sworn this was Heaven," said Ray Kinsella's ghostly father in the movie. It may be a line that ends up in someone's victory speech tomorrow night.
No Rest For The Weary: Regardless of what happens in Iowa, don't expect a slew of candidates to drop out of the race. Why should they? The New Hampshire primary is just five days after Iowa and there's no reason not to hang in for that period of time, especially when there's a chance of getting into the final debates in the Granite State this weekend.
And, at the moment, the landscape in New Hampshire is much different than in Iowa. Whether that will change in the short time between the two contests is one of the biggest question marks of the campaign. Will winners be able to capitalize on momentum in such a short period of time? More importantly, will those who perform under expectations be able to recover? The latest poll, from Suffolk University shows John McCain, who is well behind the front-runners in Iowa, leading the GOP field in New Hampshire with Hillary Clinton topping the Democratic field.
Iowa Is The Exception: Unlike most election days, Iowa's caucuses don't kick off until the doors close at some 3,500 locations across the state, giving candidates and campaigns the entire day of the caucuses to continue rallying support or, more importantly, begin ramping up those massive turnout operations. There will be "entrance polls" taken as caucus goers go into the polls but they are not the same as "exit polls" in other elections where voters are sampled throughout the day who have already cast their ballots. For more on what to expect on caucus night, see our Iowa primer, prepared by CBS News director of surveys Kathy Frankovic.
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