Requiem For Moderate Republicans?

By CBSNews.com's Amy Sara Clark.

The war in Iraq has cost Sen. Lincoln Chafee dearly — twice.

First, the Rhode Island Republican infuriated his party's conservative base by voting against the war. This led to a bitter primary fight against Stephen Laffey, the conservative mayor of Cranston. The primary forced Chafee to trumpet his Republican credentials in what is perhaps the bluest of blue states. It also cost him badly needed campaign cash and resources.

Now, in the general election, the Iraq war is slamming Chafee again.

Democratic challenger Sheldon Whitehouse has managed to effectively harness anti-war sentiment against Chafee despite a painful irony: Chafee opposed it.

Whitehouse has delivered one major message, and he's stuck to it for dear life: Chafee's voting record doesn't matter because the most important vote he'll cast will help to decide which party controls the Senate.

"Chafee's first vote will be for a Republican Congress," one ad runs. "Bush needs Chafee in the Senate. Doesn't that tell us everything we need to know?"

"He's had a consistent theme and it's a simple theme: 'I'm a Democrat and it's a time for change,'" says Wendy Schiller, who teaches political science at Brown University in Providence. "He's been doing it since June. Candidates usually shift messages, but he hasn't and it's worked for him."

It sure has.

With Rhode Island's approval rating for Mr. Bush hovering around 22 percent — the lowest of any state — Whitehouse's campaign has been surging ahead. Less than a week before the election, some polls show Whitehouse with a double-digit lead. A new Reuters/Zogby poll, for example, shows Whitehouse with a comfortable 53-39 percent lead over Chafee.

A Dying Breed?

A Chafee loss could sound the death knell for an increasingly rare creature: the moderate Republican.

Chafee has a well-deserved reputation for being most liberal Republican in the Senate. Not only was he the only GOP senator to oppose the war, he also opposed President Bush's tax cuts, supports abortion rights and favors the legalization of gay marriage. He didn't even vote for Mr. Bush, casting his ballot instead for the president's father.

In fact, Chafee's platform is so similar to Whitehouse's that Laffey ran an ad in the primary entitled "Two peas in a pod."

"Lincoln Chafee's major offense is that he has an 'R' next to his name. That's about it, but it may be enough to beat him," says Larry Sabato, who directs University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

It's not just Chafee. Moderate Republicans are struggling across the country, especially in the Northeast: Longtime Republican House moderates Chris Shays, Nancy Johnson and Rob Simmons are facing tough challengers in Connecticut; five-term Republican Rep. Sue Kelly is facing a tough challenge from Democrat John Hall in New York; and Democrats have been waging a tight race against moderate GOP Rep. Curt Weldon in Pennsylvania, to name just a few.

The era of the so-called Rockefeller Republican could be coming to a close, says Democratic pollster Mark Mellman. "There was a time when you could look all up and down the East Coast — Jacob Javits in New York, Mack Mathias in Maryland — and see a variety of moderate and even liberal Republicans. That is a disappearing breed."

Moderate candidates face an uphill battle, says Democratic pollster Harrison Hickman, because they're attacked from both sides — a problem exemplified by Chafee's struggles.

But perhaps an even larger problem, Hickman added, is that "moderates — universally — seem less passionate." Voters tend to see their congressional representatives as advocates. And from advocates they want fervor, Hickman said.

Could Rhode Island Make The Difference?

The Ocean State is in the national spotlight because a Democratic win could give the party control of the Senate. If Whitehouse loses, the Democrats could still gain the six seats they need to take over, but that possibility becomes much more remote.

"Are there ways to do it? Yes, but the Democrats would have to win Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia — all," Hickman said.

Blue State Blue Bloods

That Chafee might lose in Rhode Island was unfathomable to many even a year ago. Chafee is a loved and revered name in the Ocean State: The current senator's great-grandfather was governor, and his father served both as governor and a four-term U.S. senator.

Lincoln initially veered from the family tradition, working for seven years as a racetrack blacksmith, but then returned to the fold and was elected mayor of Warwick in 1994. When John Chafee died of heart failure in 1999, Lincoln took over and was re-elected in 2000.

"He has had lot of support tied with family name and tradition," says Maureen Moakley, a political scientist at the University of Rhode Island. "Were it not for the ability of an opponent to nationalize the race, he certainly would have won."

But the Whitehouse name is not without its own cachet in Rhode Island — Whitehouse's father was a U.S. Ambassador (and a lifelong friend of John Chafee). Sheldon Whitehouse served as attorney general under President Clinton, as U.S. attorney in Rhode Island and as the governor's policy director.

A Perfect (Democratic) Storm?

Rhode Island Democrats outnumber Republicans more than 3 to 1, but Chafee has always done well with the state's more numerous independent voters. However, that's not happening in this race.

"Half of the electorate consists of independent voters, and this year Bush has lost independent voters," said Darrell West, a political scientist at Brown University

The well-publicized potential of Democrats to regain control of the Senate is also causing voters who might support Chafee to think twice. "If you talk to anybody in Rhode Island, people say, 'I like Chafee, but this year I can't afford to vote for him,'" said Schiller.

In a final irony, Chafee's reputation for decency and integrity may play a role in his likely demise, says Schiller.

While Chafee might well have been re-elected as an independent, his loyalty to his family's Republican legacy probably prevented him from even considering it.

"He had no personal option to switch parties," said Schiller.

Chafee's sense of decency may also have a hand in his sliding poll numbers. Although Chafee has begun running negative ads against Whitehouse in the past few weeks — ads that try, largely unsuccessfully, to associate Whitehouse with corruption — it was too little, too late, said Schiller.

"Chafee got elected in Rhode Island by being nice," said pollster Hickman, "I think (negative advertising) goes against his personal grain."

In the end, perhaps Chafee's struggles are ultimately explained by an extraordinary dose of bad luck.

"It's a Democratic year not a Republican year," said Hickman. "There was a tough and bitter primary in which the national party had to come out and save him in a Democratic state. Throw in the price of gas and heating oil … Everything that could have gone wrong, did."

By Amy Sara Clark