Polish Election Headed To Run-Off

Pro-market lawmaker Donald Tusk had a razor-thin lead over Warsaw Mayor Lech Kaczynski in Poland's presidential election, the state electoral commission said early Monday.

The commission said that with 91.5 percent of the ballots counted, 35.8 percent of voters had backed Tusk in Sunday's election, while 33.3 percent voted for Kaczynski. Such a result would force the two former activists with the anti-communist Solidarity movement into a head-to-head race Oct. 23.

Final official results were not expected until late Monday. An exit poll by state television indicated Tusk, who wants to stimulate the economy with low taxes and deregulation, led with about 38 percent while Kaczynski, a former child actor hoping to preserve a strong safety net, had 32 percent.

The race in the formerly communist country centered on the Europe-wide issue of just how far to go in sacrificing welfare state protections for the promise of an American-style economy with fewer social benefits but faster growth and job creation.

Tusk wants a 15-percent flat tax rate on personal and corporate earnings, while Kaczynski favors a greater role for the state in protecting the social safety net and promoting Roman Catholic values. He wants tax cuts, but would keep the system under which high earners pay more — and would give deductions for big families.

The election of either candidate would cement the sharp decline of the ruling former communists, who were defeated in parliamentary elections on Sept. 25 following a string of sleaze scandals and failure to slash Poland's jobless rate, now at 17.8 percent, the highest in the European Union.

One of the quirks of this election has to do with appearance. Kaczynski has an identical twin brother, Jaroslaw, whose Law and Justice party won the parliamentary election. As chairman of the party, Jaroslaw was expected to become prime minister, but he instead named a little-known party member to hold that post, a move aimed at strengthening his brother's bid for the presidency.

The brothers calculated that Poles do not want two men they can barely tell apart holding the two top posts.

The two, now 56, won fame at age 12 with the 1962 in a hit movie about a pair of troublemakers who try to get rich by stealing the moon and selling it. That was the end of their film career.

"The movie seems written just for the two of them — they are naughty, troublesome and ready to fight, just like now," Zuzanna Szwed, a 27-year-old Tusk voter said after watching a special screening in Warsaw of the movie Sunday.

The Kaczynskis were later active in the anti-communist Solidarity trade union movement.

After the exit poll was released, both Tusk and Kaczynski expressed hope they would emerge as the winner.

"I am proud of this result, I am proud of Poland," a smiling and relaxed-looking Tusk said to chanting supporters. "In the coming two weeks Poles will look carefully at who we really are and this is my chance. ... This is a victory."

Kaczynski said he was not giving up yet, and that he too would use the next two weeks to win over voters.

"I am certain that in the long run ... we will win," Kaczynski said. "The vision of a Poland of solidarity is more attractive to millions of Poles, to millions of Polish families, than a vision of a liberal Poland."

Among a field of 12, Andrzej Lepper, leader of the farm-based Self-Defense party, came third with 13.2 percent, according to the exit poll. Marek Borowski, a former communist, had 10.2 percent, a showing that was slightly better than opinion polls had predicted.

The elimination of 10 candidates made it difficult to predict how the final result would play out. It seemed likely that Kaczynski would benefit the most, as he could pick up support from Lepper voters, who also see a strong role for the state in job creation.

He might also appeal to those on both the right and left fringes, as opposed to Tusk, who is considered a moderate and attracts centrist voters.

But Michal Kaminski, one of Kaczynski's main political strategists, denied that Kaczynski would fish for support at the edges of the political spectrum, and said that he would try to appeal to all voters — even those who voted for Tusk on Sunday.

"Kaczynski is looking for every Polish vote and he will appeal to those voters who today voted for Donald Tusk," Kaminski told The Associated Press at the party headquarters.