Oslo Plus Five

May 4, 1999 marks the end of what Israeli and Palestinian negotiators envisioned as a five-year transitional period, when all disputes -- from the borders separating them to the status of Jerusalem -- were to have been settled.

While there has been much progress since Oslo, the parties are not anywhere near agreement on what the diplomats call "final status issues." The past five years have seen a dizzying array of historical, political and tragic events: signing ceremonies on the White House lawn, the assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, a Jordanian-Israeli peace agreement, the death of Jordan’s King Hussein and more negotiating sessions than any of the participants can keep track of.

Throughout, U. S. negotiators have been intimately involved in almost every twist and turn in the road. Looking back, Ambassador Dennis Ross, the Special Middle East Coordinator, says of the Oslo Accords: "Oslo was a tremendous breakthrough because it signaled between Israelis and the PLO they were committed to resolving their conflict through peaceful means and through mutual recognition."

As the countdown to the five year anniversary of Oslo approached, two factors have occupied the minds of negotiators. On the one hand, Palestinian Authority President Yasir Arafat threatened to mark the date with a unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state. Had he done so, Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu made clear he would move to annex any remaining land on the West Bank which was still under Israeli control. The situation was finessed when the Palestinians, encouraged by the U. S., decided last week to postpone such a declaration.

On the other hand, Israeli politics has brought the peace process to a grinding halt until after elections (May 17) are held. When a new government is formed, the Clinton Administration’s negotiating team wants to accelerate the "final status" talks by extending the Oslo transition period for about a year, which, according to Amb. Ross, would be enough time to reach a final agreement if "there is a serious commitment (between the parties) to work together; to treat each other as partners. If you have that, a year is enough. If you do not have that, twenty years is not enough."

Faisal Husseini, a member of Arafat’s negotiating team said today: "It is no longer a question of if there will be a Palestinian state, but a question of when."

Before that issue is formally resolved, diplomats and politicians representing Israelis, Palestinians and Americans will have to make a lot of bold and in many cases unpopular decisions.

For now, the Oslo process has reached the end of its legal mandate, its final chapters very much in question. According to negotiator Dennis Ross, Oslo is and was a historic breakthrough. Its full promise has yet to be realized.

by Charles Wolfson