NBA Draft Prediction: Consensus Will Be Wrong

This story was written by CBSSports.com national columnist Gregg Doyel

Which means everyone's wrong.

When it comes to this sort of thing, everyone's always wrong. Show me a consensus, and I'll show you contamination. Is that Confucius? It should be, because it's brilliant. Any draft consensus by basketball brainiacs is an invitation to dumb it down and play Where's Waldo, only we're not looking for some dorky character with glasses and a funny shirt. We're looking for the mistake.

Look at history, people.

Just two years ago, the consensus was that either Derrick Rose or Michael Beasley should be the No. 1 overall pick. The Bulls went with Rose, and good thing for them -- because Michael Beasley wasn't the second-best player in the 2008 draft. That was O.J. Mayo, who went third to Minnesota (before being traded to Memphis) and has averaged 18 points per game. Or it was Russell Westbrook, who went fourth to Oklahoma City and is coming off a season where he averaged 16 ppg and eight assists. Or it might have been Brook Lopez, who went 10th to New Jersey and averaged 18.8 ppg, 8.6 rpg and 1.7 blocks.

Three years ago, the consensus was that Greg Oden couldn't be passed up with the first overall pick. Everyone said it, sadly even me, under the assumption that a franchise center is impossible to find in the draft. The mistake we made was this: We were right. A franchise center is impossible to find in the draft. There are too many variables with bodies this big and this young. Too many injuries. Too much passivity. Too much Sam Bowie and Michael Olowokandi, and Greg Oden -- bless him -- is a mixture of both. Meanwhile, the player who went No. 2 overall in 2007, Kevin Durant, became the youngest scoring champion in NBA history this year at 30.1 ppg. His scoring averages in three seasons have been 20.3 ppg, 25.3 ppg and 30.1 ppg. What's he gonna do next season, average 35 ppg?

Maybe, yes.

Unless that becomes a consensus opinion, and then never mind. Because the consensus is always wrong, like it was wrong in 2002 when everyone said the best two players in the draft were Yao Ming and Jay Williams -- but if everyone had to do it over again, they'd take No. 9 pick Amar'e Stoudemire No. 1. The consensus was wrong then, and it'll be wrong this time, too.

You could make a game of it with your friends. Like a perverse touchdown pool: Everyone puts in five bucks and draws a name out of the hat. You win the pot if your guy sucks.

One of them will. Book it.

Maybe DeMarcus Cousins will eat his way out of the NBA, which is what some people say, although personally I don't see it. He doesn't look like a future fatty to me. He does, though, strike me as a hothead. Maybe his head gets the better of his body and he never makes it like he should.

Parrish: Questionable Cousins Still Must Go in Top 4

Derrick Favors could continue to channel whatever held him back at Georgia Tech. This is a guy who should have dominated the ACC. Simply owned it. Instead, he was a nice player as a freshman. He averaged 12.4 points and 8.4 rebounds, and those are nice numbers. But if you're a physical beast like Derrick Favors, and you're putting up nice numbers, something's wrong with you. Maybe that same something will carry over to the NBA.

If you draw Wesley Johnson's name, your chance is his flighty background. Something caused him to screw up and attend Iowa State in the first place. Something caused him to pull up stakes and leave. Wesley Johnson is athletically gifted, able to block shots and rebound and hit step-back 3-pointers. He's almost perfect, but it's that almost that could be his undoing. Something's not quite right with this guy. Is it wrong enough to win you some money? Only one way to find out.

If you draw Evan Turner, his perimeter shooting will be the problem. Or his lack of a pure NBA position. Maybe he played every position in college because he didn't really have one that suited him best. I don't believe a word of this paragraph, but hey, weirder things have happened. Look at Greg Oden.

(AP Photo/Wade Payne)

But Wall is where this year's consensus should have stopped. Maybe Wall and Turner. Those will be two monster pros, but you know how it is with experts. It's not enough to state the obvious. That's too easy. Anyone can state the obvious, and nobody's impressed when they do. So the experts go a step farther and make more grand conclusions: Wall and Turner ... and also Cousins and Favors and Johnson!

Meantime, someone in this draft is getting overlooked. Don't ask me who, because I'm not that good. At least I'm admitting I'm not that good -- but if you want a name, fine. Here are two:

It could be Texas' Damion James. He strikes me as the kind of monster athlete capable of finding 20 points ... like a rich person finds $20 hiding in his back pocket. It might be an accident, but it won't really be an accident, if you know what I mean. Or it could be Oklahoma State's James Anderson, the best pure scorer in this draft, possibly another Kevin Martin, who went 26th overall in 2004 and nearly averaged 26 ppg five years later. It could be Kansas' Cole Aldrich, who ... hahahaha sorry. I can't finish that sentence with a straight face.

It won't be Aldrich -- but it'll be somebody. That's my lock of the day. Those first five guys in this draft aren't the best five guys in this draft, because someone from way back in the field will shock everyone. While the experts were anointing Michael Beasley as the can't-miss big man from the Class of 2008, Brook Lopez was a might-miss prospect who went 10th overall that year. That's criminal. The general managers who took some of the guys ahead of Lopez -- players like Joe Alexander and D.J. Augustin -- should be ashamed of themselves. Experts? You don't know the game like an expert. You know it like a sports writer. That's as mean as I can be.

And this is as direct as I can be: The consensus opinion is an exercise in intellectual laziness. It takes a lot of work, see, to dig past the obvious, get your hands dirty and find the real gem buried in the sand. A general manager who goes along with the consensus opinion is a GM interested in taking the easy way out. It's a GM interested in covering his ass.