Moscow Maneuvers
By naming his new acting prime minister as his political successor, President Boris Yeltsin has fired the starting gun for RussiaÂ's presidential campaign.
But many political analysts fear that YeltsinÂ's choice of Vladmimir Putin, the head of RussiaÂ's Federal Security Service, the successor to the KGB, is more of a warning shot.
According to those analysts, PutinÂ's nomination indicates that the Kremlin is preparing not for an election, but a campaign of political dirty tricks in order to keep Yeltsin or his handpicked successor in power.
Yeltsin and his inner circle, known as Â"The Family,Â" are said to be concerned that a new regime will seek political revenge.
Members of The Family -- which includes YeltsinÂ's youngest daughter, Tatiana Dyachenko, chief of staff Alexander Voloshin and the tycoon Boris Berezovsky -- have accumulated vast power and wealth while Yeltsin has been in power.
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| CBS News Correspondent David Hawkins |
Preventing that has become a top Kremlin priority.
YeltsinÂ's previous prime minister, Sergei Stepashin, was seen as unwilling to break rules in order to protect The FamilyÂ's interests.
But Putin is a tough character. Many speculate he might be more apt to back Â"extra-constitutionalÂ" measures to keep The Family in power.
There are at least three Â"extra-constitutionalÂ" scenarios making the rounds in MoscowÂ's political circles and in the Russian media.
Russia is facing another rebellion in the Caucasus. Muslim separatists in Dagestan, a region next to RussiaÂ's breakaway Chechen Republic, have taken control of several villages and have declared independence.
A civil war could be used by the Kremlin as a pretext for a state-of-emergency and justify postponing elections. Already, the Russian military is stepping up their attacks on the rebels.
Another scenario: Yeltsin could carry out his threat to remove Vladimir LeninÂ's mummified body from LeninÂ's Tomb on Red Square. That would almost certainly stir up the Communist faithful who regard the founder of the Soviet state as a secular saint.
Mass demonstrations by Communists would be a handy excuse to ban the party once-and-for-all. Again, the Kremlin could declare a state-of-emergency in order to keep the peace.
On Monday, Yeltsin responded to the flood of speculation and denied that a state of emergency was in thew works.
The strangest scenario is actually already in the works: Russia and Belarus are planning to re-unite. If the two former Soviet Republics become one new country, Yeltsin could give up the Russian presidency when his term ends -- heÂ's forbidden by law from runnin for another -- and become president of the newly created state.
This has been called the Â"Milosevic ScenarioÂ" because when Slobodan MilosevicÂ's term as President of Serbia ran out, he arranged to transfer the bulk of state power to the Yugoslav presidency, a previously symbolic office that he then ran for and won.
The maneuvering in Moscow does not appear to augur well for Russian political stability or much-needed economic reform. But those priorities appear to have been supplanted by The FamilyÂ's determination to cling to power.
If their choice for RussiaÂ's next president is any indication, the KremlinÂ's current occupants are contemplating a dangerous adventure.
By David Hawkins
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