Mediating Mideast Peace
"Nothing is certain until it is certain."
That's how Egypt's ambassador to the United States, Ahmed Maher El Sayed, views the possibility that the Israelis and Palestinians will have another agreement to sign during Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's visit to Egypt. Albright landed in Egypt Thursday afternoon after a 24-hour stay in Morocco.
Optimism has returned to the Clinton Administration's Middle East negotiating team following the election in June of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak. Albright is anxious to capitalize on the fact that Israeli and Palestinian negotiators have been working hard to resume implementation of last year's Wye Agreement, which called for Israeli withdrawal from more land on the West Bank in exchange for Palestinian security guarantees.
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Barak has his own ideas on how to get things moving and is asking the Palestinians to make some adjustments to the agreement his predecessor, Benjamin Netanyahu, negotiated under President Clinton's tutelage.
Among the issues Barak wants to renegotiate are the quantity of land the Israelis turn over at certain intervals, when they withdraw, and how many and which Palestinian prisoners are eligible for release from Israeli jails.
Coupled with any such adjustments, the Israelis and Palestinians would also agree to start what's been called "accelerated" final status talks, finally tackling the most difficult set of issues such as borders and water.
According to some newspaper reports, Barak may have propsed leaving the thorniest issues -- Jerusalem and Palestinian refugee rights -- for a later date, after issues such as Palestinian statehood are determined.
Albright had initially hoped not to get involved in last-minute negotiating. Her spokesman, James Foley, said the negotiations are "up to them." The U.S. role is that of "facilitator," he said.
He said this Albright mission was intended "to take stock of where the parties are, but also to look ahead" to final status negotiations and the possibility of a comprehensie peace between Israel and its Arab neighbors.
Peter Rodman of The Nixon Center, a former State Department and National Security Council official, suggested that the administration's negotiating team should be giving Barak more support by taking a tougher line with the Palestinians.
"We should spend our political capital with [Palestinian leader Yasser] Arafat to say this is our best judgment and it's the only thing that makes sense," Rodman says. He added that the administration is "sort of afraid to say 'no' to Arafat."
The U.S. role in the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations is not the only diplomatic track that Albright will engage during her trip. She'll also visit Damascus for the first time in two years in an effort to restart dormant Israeli-Syrian talks.
Barak has indicated a willingness to negotiate a return of the Golan Heights to Syria, and the State Department's Foley says Albright hopes to "nudge the process forward."
Analyst Robert Satloff of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy says of Albright's trip to the region: "The real litmus test for Albright is not the Palestinians, it's the Syrians. If she doesn't leave [Damascus] with a date certain for resumption of talks, then this will not be her most successful Middle East trip."
When it comes to the Middle East peace process, there seem to be almost as many reversals as advances. Perhaps it is a bit too optimistic to agree with Egypt's Ambassador El Sayed when he says, "We've seen many backward steps and we hope we've seen the last of them."
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