May: Nader's Green Gravitas

Like Pat Buchanan, Green Party candidate Ralph Nader is no threat to win the White House. But his presence, say some political observers, could leave its mark.

Both Buchanan and Nader could "affect someone capturing all the electoral votes for a certain state," says Kenneth Janda, a political science professor at Northwestern University. If the Bush/Gore race is as tight as some think it will be, a few third-party percentage points might tip a state from one major party candidate to the other.

In the battle of also-rans, Buchanan has enjoyed most of the attention. That's fair, since he's given the Republican Party a scare in the past, and is now on the Reform ticket – which, with its $12 million in federal matching funds and thousands of members across the country, is arguably a more viable alternative than the Greens.

So why then is Buchanan trailing Nader? In a recent Zogby poll, Nader had 5.7 percent of the vote, compared to Buchanan's 3.6 percent. And in some Western states, Nader's numbers are climbing near the 10 percent mark.

A potential harbinger of Nader's impact may be emerging in Oregon. Originally considered a likely Gore state, Oregon is now up for grabs, thanks in part to the 7 percent that Nader is gathering - a 7 percent that's almost coming out of Gore's base.

"He has the potential to hurt Gore," observes Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside Michigan Politics.

Ballenger thinks Buchanan will loom larger in the fall election than Nader will. But others, like Republican consultant Frank Luntz, disagree. He thinks Buchanan's support has dissipated, and says "It's more likely that Nader will hurt Gore than that Buchanan will hurt Bush."

What Nader is doing in Oregon, he may also do in ecologically minded Washington State. And who knows how he might fare in California, a state where Jerry Brown flourished as "Governor Moonbeam?"

"Nader's impact in California could be significant," warned Luntz. "He could put the state in real play and make Bush very competitive there."

Some strategists worry that liberal Democrats, who aren't entranced by Gore to begin with, might vote for Nader, whose policies are more traditionally liberal than Gore's.

"There's a real concern that in a general election which is very close, [Nader] could peel off, in certain areas, enough votes to become a problem for the Democrats," says Amy Isaacs, of Americans for Democratic Action.

Exacerbating that problem is Gore's less-than-dynamic personality, which inspires little excitement among even ardent supporters. "No one would accuse Gore, at least at this point, of being a charismatic leader," Isaacs says dryly.

But neither would many people describe Nader – that champion of consumer product safety – as being a magnetic personality. Isaacs, however disagees. "With a certain group of people he certainly is," she says. "With the generl population, I'd say no, but again, in a very close election, it doesn't take much to have a very strong influence on the overall outcome."

Does Nader care if he helps Bush by drawing votes away from Gore? Not a bit. "I think [Gore's] been taking votes from me," Nader asserted on Meet the Press a few weeks ago.

Nader has considerable contempt for Gore, whom he regards as a sort of ecological traitor. "Al Gore has broken more of his written promises than any politician in modern history," Nader told a Nevada crowd, referring to Gore's book on the environment, Earth in the Balance. "He wrote a book on the environment that he completely turned his back on."

And Nader also figures that the Democratic Party may benefit from Green voters. Since the Green party isn't running candidates for most U.S. House seats, the theory is that voters energized by Nader will vote Democratic down the rest of the ballot. Luntz agrees, saying that both Buchanan and Nader bring out "ideological voters that otherwise would not have voted, and that could have an impact on House races."

Meanwhile, Nader hopes to be on the ballot in at least 40 states. And unlike 1996, he says he's running for real this time. If he can keep his head bobbing above the 5 percent watermark by November, the Green Party will enjoy a boost in legitimacy and resources as it earns the right to federal matching funds in the 2004 election.

But Nader has a tough row to hoe before he gets there.

Nader "is not a hot candidate. He's a cool candidate, very low key," says Janda. He's intense, but without Buchanan's flare, and while his rhetoric can be just as heated, it's more forbidding. "Nader doesn't appear to project a sense of humor. Pat Buchanan does," Janda adds. "Nader is kind of an elite candidate."