Looking Under The Radar
That old adage that "all politics are local" applies to this fall's races for governor.
Amid a nip-and-tuck presidential race, the governor's mansion is up for grabs in eleven states. Democrats now hold seven of them: Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Vermont, and Washington. Four more states currently fall in the Republican column: Montana, North Dakota, Utah, and West Virginia.
Yet paradoxically, the tight contest between Al Gore and George W. Bush could be less decisive in this year's races for governor than a typical campaign for the White House.
"I don't think there's any great sea shift like we saw in 1994 or when we have a presidential landslide," said Thad Beyle, an expert on state politics who teaches at the University of North Carolina. "A lot of these governor's races are going to be decided on an individual state level based on who's running, who looks good, and who doesn't."
Beyle added, "In some cases, the coattails could be running in the other direction - that a strong gubernatorial candidate could help" a presidential candidate carry a particular state.
| Statehouse Races Incumbents Listed In Italics Delaware Indiana Missouri Montana New Hampshire North Carolina North Dakota Utah Vermont Washington West Virginia |
Only a handful of governorships are expected to change hands between the two parties in November. That means the Republicans will likely retain their huge edge over the Democrats. As the election season begins, the GOP holds 30 statehouse seats to the Democrats' 18. (Two governors are independents.) Five of the 11 governorships on the fall ballot are wide open with sitting governors in four of those states - three Democrats and a Republican - forced to step aside because of term limits.
In the face of GOP dominance, the Democrats - to borrow a favorite Bush phrase - vow to leave no state behind.
"Our first priority is to protect what we have. Then we'll look at West Virginia, Montana, and North Dakota as potential pickups," said B.J. Thornberry with thDemocratic Governors' Association.
Like Bush, many Republican candidates for governor are stressing tax relief. But their proposals - from state income taxes to property and auto taxes - are bite-sized. That makes their plans much less sweeping in scope that of their party's presidential nominee - and perhaps easier to sell to the voters.
"You can't just say, 'I'm for tax cuts.'" said Clinton Key, executive director of the Republican Governors Association. "You've got to pick out the tax cuts that you want to make - and then you've got to tell voters not only that you want to make them, you got to tell them how you're going to do it, and how it's going to impact the overall budget."
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Education - also a Bush mantra - is another common theme of the GOP candidates for governor.
"They feel like they've invested the money in public education in the past few years, but they're still not getting the test scores, they're still not getting the results that they would like as parents," said Key.
While the Democrats are intent on edging out the Republicans on education, many of their candidates for governor are emphasizing health care, too. Just like Gore on the national level, that agenda includes "providing affordable health care Â… real patient protection acts in the states and Â…making prescription drugs affordable," said the DGA's Thornberry.
Here are three lively races worth watching:
Missouri. In this swing state, the presidential race is fierce - and the U.S. Senate contest is nasty. These two campaigns are overshadowing a tight statehouse battle between Republican U.S. Rep. Jim Talent and Democratic State Treasurer Bob Holden.
North Carolina. Thanks to term limits, the Tarheel State is wide open with the exit of longtime Democratic Gov. Jim Hunt. Since politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum, voters are now treated to a bitter, bruising match between Republican Richard Vinroot - the former mayor of Charlotte - and Democratic State Attorney General Mike Easley.
West Virginia. GOP incumbent Cecil Underwood has been around politics long enough to serve as his state's youngest and now its oldest governor. Democrats traditionally rule Coal Country, but that reign was upended in '96. Will political lightning strike twice for the 77-year-old Underwood against this year's Democratic challenger, U.S. Rep. Bob Wise.
None of the 11 states with a governor's race in November are large. A number have only one U.S. House member. But next year, all 50 states must redraw their congressional and legislative districts - thprocess known as reapportionment.
"Who sets the district lines in 2001 based on the result of the Census can set the politics for the decade," said Beyle.
Ron Faucheux, editor of Campaigns and Elections magazine, said a governor can make or break how a state's political maps are redrawn - and which party benefits the most.
"Whoever is governor in these states has a big say in the [reapportionment] process," Faucheux said.