Iraq Attack Inching Closer?

The U.S. military presence in the Persian Gulf has increased substantially due to the war in Afghanistan, but there's little doubt the new troops and equipment could be turned on Iraq in a future offensive.

The number of U.S. military personnel in the Gulf region and Central Asia - from Saudi Arabia to Pakistan - has increased from fewer than 25,000 to nearly 80,000 since the Sept. 11 attacks.

An attack on Iraq would probably start with a fierce air bombardment, analysts say. Next, special forces could fan out to create "no-movement" zones and then search for biological and chemical weapons. Predator remote-controlled planes would patrol for Scud missiles on the ground.

In the end, however, it would take a much more massive military commitment than in Afghanistan if the United States were to attack Iraq.

In all, analysts say, 100,000 or more American troops might be needed against Saddam Hussein, who could shield his elite Republican Guard troops by placing them among Baghdad's civilians - and who might retaliate with chemical attacks.

"It is a major, major decision," Sen. John Warner warned the Bush administration last week. If the government is contemplating full-scale military action against Iraq, "We've got to prepare the American people for what the consequences would be," said Warner, of Mr. Bush's Republican party.

While about 7,000 are in Afghanistan, thousands more have been sent to the Gulf area to support the Afghan operation.

In Kuwait - at Iraq's door - the number of American troops has nearly doubled, from 5,500 to about 10,500, since Sept. 11, defense officials said. Most are support personnel who keep planes flying and food flowing to troops in the field.

But Gen. Tommy Franks, who commands U.S. forces in the region, said he's considering augmenting the ground combat force in Kuwait, which now numbers 3,500 to 4,000 troops.

In Saudi Arabia, weapons and other gear are being pulled out of long-term storage. Some computer and communications equipment is going to a previously secret base in Qatar, potentially giving U.S. forces a command center outside of Saudi Arabia, where there's little support for a new offensive against Iraq.

Senior U.S. defense officials insist the Gulf buildup is not a prelude to an invasion of Iraq, but they acknowledge it is serving as a warning to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, and would be useful in a future conflict.

They provide both valuable training and "a hedge against miscalculation," by Saddam, Franks told reporters at a Pentagon briefing.

He said he has received no order to plan for war with Iraq.

But the general made clear he's working to ensure the United States could run a war in the Gulf, even if allies such as Saudi Arabia refused to allow operations from its soil.

"Let me put it this way. We are increasing or improving our command and control capacity in all of my region," Franks said.

The Bush administration accuses Iraq of developing weapons of mass destruction and sponsoring terrorists, and says options are being considered ranging from diplomatic efforts to push Saddam to readmit U.N. weapons inspectors to possible military action.

Saudi Arabia, a U.S. ally, has made clear that America should not invade Iraq, and that if Bush decides to go ahead, U.S. troops could not operate from Saudi soil - at least publicly.

In a rebuff to Bush's Iraq stance, Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah on Thursday embraced a top Iraqi official in front of other leaders at an Arab summit, signaling a reconciliation for the first time since the 1991 Gulf War.

Abdullah is to visit Bush at the president's Texas ranch next month.

The Arab countries also issued a statement saying that any attack on Iraq would be considered a threat to the security of all Arab countries. And Iraq made conciliatory gestures toward Kuwait, the southern neighbor it invaded in 1990 to trigger the Gulf War. The Kuwaiti government has reacted cautiously.

Sandy Berger, a national security adviser in the Clinton administration, said Bush has made it clear he is ready to take action against Iraq.

But, he said, "It's going to be difficult to do that with the Middle East in flames."

Arab countries friendly to America apparently worry their governments would face widespread internal unrest if the United States attacked Iraq while the Israeli-Palestinian crisis raged.

"It shows (Iraq) cannot be Afghanistan II," Robert Pelletreau, a former assistant secretary of state and ex-U.S. ambassador to Egypt, said of the show of Arab support for Iraq.

"It's going to be much more difficult to gather international support for an action against Iraq," Pelletreau said. Yet, it's unlikely the administration will back off its Iraq policy, he said.

State Department spokesman Philip Reeker said Friday that Saddam is a "serious threat to the Iraqi people, to Iraq's neighbors," and said the administration would keep all options open.

Franks said moving of equipment from Saudi Arabia began a year and a half ago.

Until Vice President Dick Cheney's recent visit to the Middle East, however, the United States had not even acknowledged the existence of the Qatar base in the desert outside the capital, Doha. The huge U.S. installation, which offers long runways, is marked only by a handwritten "Army Camp" sign.