Hillary In High Gear

Hillary Rodham Clinton now has a clear lead over Republican Congressman Rick Lazio in the race for senator from New York, according to the latest CBS News/New York Times poll. Clinton's 9-point advantage seems built on strong support from women, including, for the first time, suburban women.

The first lady has also been helped by voters' assessments of the first New York Senate debate, which both viewers and non-viewers think she won. Unfavorable views of Lazio, meanwhile, have nearly tripled in the last three months (in part fueled by a negative response to his debate performance), while favorable impressions of the first lady continue to increase.

New York Senate Preference
	Clinton	Lazio
Now	48%	39%
	Clinton	Lazio
June	44%	39%

The more modest gender gap in the June survey has increased in this poll. Clinton now has an 18-point lead among women voters, while Lazio receives equal support from men and women. In June, Clinton held an 11-point lead with women, while Lazio led by three points among men.

New York Senate Preference And Gender
	Clinton	Lazio
Women	52%	34%
	Clinton	Lazio
Men	43%	44%

Geographically, Clinton has maintained a more than three-to-one lead in New York City, while Lazio has held on to a double-digit lead upstate. The first lady has made gains with older voters, as well as with the highest and lowest income groups. She is now just about tied with Lazio among white women (42 percent Clinton, 43 percent Lazio); three months ago, Lazio had an eight-point lead with those voters.

Clinton has a more enthusiastic following than Lazio does. Nearly two-thirds of those voting for Clinton say they strongly support her candidacy, compared with just under halof Lazio voters who feel that way about their choice. More than a fifth of Lazio’s voters describe their vote as anti-Clinton. Hardly any Clinton voters say their vote is driven by opposition to Lazio.

Along with Clinton’s gain in support comes a gain for her in voter perceptions of victory. In this poll, nearly twice as many likely voters think she will win the Senate election as expect a Lazio victory: 51 percent say Clinton will win, 27 percent say Lazio will.

THE DEBATES

Last Wednesday’s debate was widely viewed as Lazio’s opportunity to demonstrate to New Yorkers that he is up to the job of Senator – but judging from voters’ reactions to the debate, he may have failed. Viewers think Lazio’s performance in the debate was too aggressive, and nearly half of viewers came away from the debates doubtful that Lazio has the maturity and experience to be an effective Senator.

More than four in ten New York voters report having watched last week’s debate. And among them, 47 percent think Clinton did the better job in the debates, while 33 percent think Lazio did. Even among those who didn’t watch the debates, the impression is that Clinton won: 33 percent say that from what they have heard or read, Clinton did the better job; 21 percent of non-viewers say Lazio did the better job.

Who Won the Debate?
	Clinton	Lazio
Viewers	47%	33%
	Clinton	Lazio
Non-Viewers	33%	21%

Many viewers also think the tone of the debate was too negative, and they mostly blame Lazio for it. A total of 52 percent of viewers think that Lazio was too negative in the debate, while 22 percent say Clinton was.

Lazio’s debate performance may have hurt his attempts to appear senatorial. Viewers are divided over whether Lazio has the maturity and experience necessary to be an effective senator – 48 percent say, given what they saw in the debate, he does, but 47 percent say he does not. In contrast, 73 percent of debate watchers feel that Clinton has the maturity and experience to be an effective senator.

THE SOFT MONEY DEBATE

Lazio’s one advantage in the debate may have been his proposal to ban soft money. Two-thirds of voters think his proposal to try eliminating both soft money and independent expenditures from thSenate race is a good idea, and 54 percent of voters say Clinton should agree to it. Perhaps as a result of her reluctance to sign the agreement, most voters believe that Clinton would rather let outside groups and the parties spend what they want – 63 percent say that.

But at the same time, they’re not sure Lazio’s intentions are pure either – only 37 percent of voters think Lazio really wants to limit soft money and independent expenditures, while 40 percent think he would rather let outside groups and the political parties spend what they like.

CANDIDATE IMAGES

Overall, Hillary Rodham Clinton enjoys a much more positive image among voters than does Rick Lazio. Favorable views of her have increased significantly, from 39 percent in April and 45 percent in June to 48 percent now. Just under one-third, about the same percentage as last April, have an unfavorable view of her.

Since he announced his candidacy for the New York Senate three months ago, Lazio has become better known to voters – but not necessarily in a more positive light. Favorable views of him have increased somewhat, from 26 percent to 33 percent, but negative views of him have nearly tripled since June, from 10 percent to 28 percent now.

Positive views of Mrs. Clinton among voters living in New York City are higher – 67 percent of voters living in the city have a favorable view of her. Views of her among voters living in the suburbs or upstate are mixed, and have changed little in the past three months – 39 percent of voters in the suburbs view her favorably, as do 37 percent of those upstate.

Lazio fares best in the areas of the state where images of Mrs. Clinton are weakest – the suburbs and upstate. Only 18 percent of voters living in New York City have a favorable view of Lazio, but that figure rises to 38 percent among suburban voters and 43 percent among voters living upstate.

But despite the changes in overall views of the candidates, both are now viewed similarly on specific characteristics. Fifty-four percent say Clinton has the right experience for the job, and 56 percent say the same for Lazio. Half say each has honesty and integrity. Only on the measure of caring about them do voters perceive much difference; 56 percent say Clinton cares, while 46 percent say Lazio does. However, this is a quality on which Democrats typically fare better than Republicans. Views of Mrs. Clinton on these characteristics have changed little in the past three months; Lazio’s ratings have improved.

Both candidates are viewed nearly equally on being able to get things done for New Yorkers in the Senate. Forty-four percent of voters think Clinton would be better at getting along and working with other members of the Senate, and 41 percent say that Lazio would be more effective. This has changed little in the past three months.

HILLARY THE CARPETBAGGER?

Despite Lazio’s repeatereminders to voters that he is the "real" New Yorker and his opponent has only recently become a resident of the state, most voters don’t appear troubled by the first lady’s out-of-towner status. If anything they have become more comfortable with her residency status in the past year. Fifty-eight percent of voters say that Clinton can represent the state, even though she hasn’t lived there for many years, while 36 percent think she could not. Only 41 percent say all things being equal they’d prefer to have a senator who was born in New York, and 57 percent say that makes no difference to them.

New York voters have consistently viewed Hillary Clinton’s handling of her job as first lady positively – 70 percent approve of the job she is doing as first lady, a figure that has not changed in the past year.

HOW DIRTY HAS THE CAMPAIGN GOTTEN?

In addition to, and perhaps as a result of, his debate performance, Lazio is viewed as running a negative campaign. Fifty-eight percent of voters feel his campaign has spent more time attacking Hillary Rodham Clinton than explaining Lazio’s positions on the issues.

The Clinton campaign, on the other hand, is viewed as more positive – 58 percent of voters think Clinton has spent more time explaining her positions than attacking her opponent. Only 32 percent think she is spending most of her time on the attack.

Many voters also believe that Lazio has been attacking Clinton unfairly. Nearly half of voters feel that Lazio has attacked Clinton unfairly, while only a third think Clinton has been unfairly attacking Lazio.

Despite the negative tone voters have seen in the debate and at least one of the campaigns, voters do not think that this campaign is an aberration: 53 percent of voters think the Clinton/Lazio race is similar in tone to the 1998 Schumer/D’Amato race. Twenty-three percent think this race has been more positive so far, and 16 percent think it has been more negative. In addition, whatever their assessment of it, voters find the current campaign interesting: 68 percent describe it as interesting so far, and only 26 percent call it dull.

Most New Yorkers have seen television advertisements for the Senate race by now: 59 percent report having seen at least one ad in support of Lazio, and 63 percent have seen at least one Clinton ad. And, by and large, viewers feel the ads have contained more true information than not.

At the same time, fewer than one-quarter of voters say they have learned anything new from Senate campaign ads, and still fewer – 16 percent - say the ads have helped them decide their vote.

POSITIONS ON ISSUES

Israel

Although Mrs. Clinton received criticism for her embrace of Suha Arafat earlier this year, she is nevertheless viewed as more likely to be a strong supporter of Israel in the Senate than Lazio would be. Forty-eight percent of voters think Clinton would be strong supporter of Israel, while only 34 percent say the same for Lazio. Jewish voters also think Clinton would be the stronger advocate for Israel.

Supreme Court Nominees

Clinton also has an edge among voters when it comes to the Supreme Court, as voters think her decisions about Supreme Court nominees would be closer to their own views than Lazio’s would be. Fifty-six percent say Clinton would make decisions they would agree with, while 43 percent say the same about Lazio.

Abortion

Despite the liberal cast of New York voters, their views on abortion may match those of candidate Lazio just as closely as those of candidate Clinton. Although eight in ten voters believe abortion should be available, at the same time over two-thirds favor a ban on a late-term abortion procedure known as partial birth abortion, and they are divided on public funding of abortions for poor women. Lazio has voted for the partial birth abortion ban, and against public funding of abortion.

Overall, 46 percent of voters believe abortion should be available to those who want it, and 34 percent of voters say they support access to abortion but with some restrictions; 15 percent believe abortion should not be permitted at all.

But Lazio doesn't stand to gain much from his position on these abortion issues, as only 7 percent of voters say this issue will be the deciding factor in their vote. Sixty-two percent say it will be important, but so are other issues, and 29 percent say it won’t influence their vote at all.

School Vouchers

Neither candidate has emerged a clear winner in the debate over school vouchers, as New York State voters are clearly divided on the issue. Forty-seven percent support publicly funded private school vouchers, while 44 percent oppose them. Support for school vouchers has weakened somewhat in the past few months, although not by much.

Support for using school vouchers is strongest among voters living in New York City (54 percent favor their use), African Americans (57 percent) and Hispanics (66 percent).

Budget Surplus

As is true nationally, New York voters clearly want the federal budget surplus used to shore up Medicare and Social Security, a priority for 57 percent of voters. Only 15 percent want the surplus used to cut taxes, and 12 percent would like to see the national debt paid down.

THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE AND THE JEWISH VOTE

Mrs. Clinton may be helped by the strength of the Democratic presidential ticket in New York State. In the four-way contest, Vice President Al Gore leads Texas Gov. George W. Bush 57 percent to 29 percent, with Green Party candidate Ralph Nader receiving 5 percent and Reform Party nominee Pat Buchanan at 1 percent.

But Clinton has yet to approach Gore’s level of support among one traditionally Democratic group – Jewish voters. Ninety-three percent of Jewish voters in New York State say they will vote for Gore and his rnning mate, Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman. Just 64 percent of Jewish voters, however, are committed to the first lady in the Senate race. At the same time, however, Clinton does better than the national ticket among black voters: 78 percent of black voters say they will vote for Gore in the four-way contest, while even more (87 percent) say they will vote for Clinton against Lazio.

Jewish voters may be especially attracted to the candidacy of Lieberman, the first Jew nominated to run for vice president on a major party ticket. In fact, not a single Jewish voter said they held an unfavorable view of Lieberman – 89 percent were favorable. This popularity may not rub off on Clinton, however. Only 14 percent of Jewish voters are more likely to support Clinton as a result of Lieberman’s support and recent public campaigning for her.