Has The War Already Started?

Officially, the United States has not begun a war with Iraq and considers military action a last resort. But in Iraq itself, a steady escalation in bombing could be the opening act of an eventual invasion.

Since the beginning of the year, U.S. and British jets patrolling the no-fly zones at Iraq's northern and southern ends have bombed 95 sites, according to press statements by the U.S. Central and European commands, compared to just five during the same period last year.

In all of 2002, there were 100 such attacks, and more than half of them occurred from October onwards — roughly coinciding with the U.S. push for "serious consequences" if Iraq failed to disarm.

The Pentagon said the attacks are responses to Iraqi aggression, but war critics say the U.S. is softening up Iraqi defenses without declaring war, and unfairly asking Iraq to disarm even as the U.S. increases the intensity of the bombing.

Both Washington and Baghdad have seized on the bombings as fodder for propaganda.

The Bush administration says Iraqi provocations against aircraft patrolling the zones are clear evidence of the regime's aggressive nature.

For its part, Iraq for years has claimed the air strikes injure or kill scores of civilians, a charge the Pentagon denies.

As a possible war looks more like an inevitable one, the military importance of the sorties could trump their PR value.

It emerged this week that the U.S. and Britain planned to increase the number of no-fly zone patrols to mask the increase in air activity that could signal the launch of actual war.

But U.S. and British jets are also changing their target selection in a way that could erode Iraqi defenses even before an invasion is begun. The coalition jets are now going after weapons that would defend against a U.S. invasion rather than targeting only those systems that threaten American aircraft, as was the custom prior to this year.

More command and communications sites are getting hit.

In all of 2002, according to public reports of air strikes, coalition jets struck 33 anti-aircraft, air defense or surface-to-air missile sites, and 35 command or communication-related sites. These latter sites include cable repeater systems, which relay defense information.

This year, 63 communications or command sites have been hit. In contrast, only 13 anti-aircraft sites were struck since January — and it was not until the 11th day of bombing that an anti-aircraft system was struck.

In the sharpest break from the past, a few bombing runs have even hit surface missile systems that cannot threaten planes.

Those incidents included:

• On February 11, aircraft hit a surface-to-surface missile system about 245 miles southeast of Baghdad. Central Command said it conducted the strike "after Iraqi forces moved the missile system below the 32nd Parallel."
• The next day, coalition forces hit another ground rocket system in the same area, claiming that Iraqi forces have "moved the missile system into range of coalition forces in Kuwait."
• The same area was struck again on Feb. 25, again because the missiles were moved to put forces in Kuwait within range. The same day, jets patrolling the northern no-fly zone hit three surface-to-surface missile systems in that area.

U.S. defense officials point out that they bomb Iraq much less frequently than Iraq threatens coalition aircraft.

According to Central Command, which operates patrols of the southern no-fly zone, the Iraqis have fired at coalition jets more than 100 times this year, and Iraqi jets have violated the no-fly zone on at least four separate days.

"We patrol the no-fly zones in accordance with what is called for in previous U.N. resolutions," said Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Gen. Richard Myers last week. "We respond when we're shot at. And so I think the facts are, we're getting shot at about two out of every three times that we fly. And these are responses."

However, no U.N. resolution explicitly authorizes the enforcement of the no-fly zones. The U.S. and Britain say the zones are needed to uphold other U.N. measures.

The U.S., Britain and France imposed the zones after Iraq cracked down on Shiite Muslims and Kurds in 1991 and 1992, violating U.N. Resolution 688, which protected the minorities. The zones prohibit Iraqi flights above the 36th or below the 33rd parallel. France has since withdrawn from the operation.

In justifying their enforcement actions, the Pentagon also cites Resolution 678, which granted U.N. member states the right to use "all necessary means" to get Iraq out of Kuwait, and Resolution 687, which established the ceasefire suspending the Gulf war.

Explaining the strikes on surface-to-surface missile sites, Myers contended that they were hit because the missiles were "within range of Kuwait, where we have lots of coalition forces; some close to the Turkish border, where we and our ally Turkey are located as well."

That made the missiles "a threat to our forces, absolutely," Myers said.

Central Command says its pilots are enforcing U.N. Resolution 949, which prohibits Iraq from fortifying defenses in the no-fly zones, when they target surface-to-surface missiles.

Asked if the increase in bombings and apparent change in target composition signaled a new strategy, Capt. Roger Burdette, a spokesman for Central Command, replied in an email: "It's our policy, to protect operational security, to not discuss current or future operations or plans, or to discuss rules of engagement. We prefer to keep our opponents guessing."

A spokesman for Prime Minister Tony Blair (who by custom is never identified) said coalition planes frequently hit integrated defense systems and saw no change in the recent selection of targets.

Indeed, U.S. and British jets have bombed the no-fly zones with regular frequency for years.

However, less than a month into his term, President Bush sent a signal that he intended to mount a stiffer enforcement effort in those areas.

On Feb. 16, 2001, U.S. and British jets launched attacks on Iraqi communications sites within five to 20 miles of Baghdad. The White House insisted the operation was a routine response to aggressive acts against aircraft patrolling the zone, but it differed from the usual enforcement actions in that the president authorized it personally and 24 jets were involved.

This year's increase in bombings has been accompanied by an accelerating propaganda campaign: jets have dropped leaflets over Iraq more than 20 times since Jan.1, compared to 10 times all last year.

Some of the leaflets specifically warn Iraqi troops and technicians not to repair the cable systems that allied jets have bombed.

"Military fiber optic cables have been targeted for destruction," warns one flyer. "Repairing them places your life at risk."

By Jarrett Murphy