Ground Zero

Florida was supposed to hold a sunny forecast for GOP presidential contender George W. Bush. His father carried the state in 1988 and 1992 and his brother Jeb, the state's Republican Governor, remains popular. But the Sunshine State's 25 electoral votes are still up for grabs according to recent polls, making it the biggest prize left in what may be the tightest presidential race in decades.

A voter survey conducted last week by the St. Petersburg Times gave Democrat Al Gore a slight lead over the Texas governor, 46-to-43 percent. With a margin of error of four percent, it puts the race in a statistical dead heat. A Mason-Dixon poll also conducted last week gives Bush a three percent edge. But just six months ago, Bush was eight to ten points ahead of Gore in statewide polls, and last year at this time his lead stretched to 15 percent.

"It's obviously much closer than anybody would have expected a few months ago," says Tom Carsey, a political scientist at the University of Florida at Tallahassee. "The $64 million question is why."

Rob Schroth, who conducted the polling for the St. Petersburg Times, attributes Gore's success in the state to many factors, including the vice president's ability to finally galvanize his base of support.

Schroth's survey also shows Gore making gains among male voters and independents. Unlike national polls, which show the Texas governor leading Gore among men by double digits, Bush's lead in Florida among men is marginal. Gore is also winning the support of more independents than Bush, by a 38-30 percent margin. The opposite was true just a year ago.

And Schroth sees Gore extending his lead among senior citizens, who make up an estimated one-third of voters who turn out on Election Day. "The early and consistent attacks that Gore has made on Bush's (plans) for Social Security and Medicare has finally started to pay off," says Schroth. His poll found the issue of protecting those programs and improving education to be of the greatest importance among Floridians, far ahead of Bush's cornerstone issue of tax cuts.

The changing makeup of Florida is also having an impact on voter preferences. Dr. William Frey, who just completed a study on the migration of voting-age Americans in the 1990s, says the state is very different than it was ten years ago.

Frey says he's seen an influx of young workers flocking to service-oriented jobs, baby boomers, seniors from traditionally Republican Midwestern states and more non-Cuban Hispanics from the Northeast and from the Caribbean, who tend to be more Democratic-leaning than Cuban Americans. He also notes that Florida gained more blacks to its population than any other state in the 1990s.

Frey, who is based at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research, says moderate makeup of these new migrants forces the two candidates to refrain from hard political rhetoric. "It will swing them both to iddle of the road," he says.

Gore and Bush have made so many visits to the state and are running so many campaign advertisements that one local newspaper described the state as "New Hampshire without snow." Both candidates have visited the state at least a half dozen times since March, and Gore chose to prepare for the presidential debates in Florida.

While each campaign touts its respective proposals, Tom Carsey of Florida State University suggests the winner will be the candidate who succeeds in defining what the election is about, especially for the powerful senior voting bloc.

While older voters tend to be more conservative on social issues - which plays to Bush's favor - Carsey sees Gore turning the election into referendum over health care and prescription drugs. "If Al Gore defines for seniors (that this election is about) Social Security and Medicare … and if that's what is on their minds on Election Day, Gore will do very well at the voting booth."

Statewide figures show Democrats have a slight edge over Republicans in voter registration, 44-to-40 percent, according to the latest tally taken in September. But in public opinion polls, Republicans rank higher in terms of party identification. They also post historically higher turnout rates on Election Day.

But Aubrey Jewett, a political scientist at the University of Central Florida, says this year may be different. He believes Gore's running mate, Joe Lieberman, has energized Jewish voters, and that more seniors may turn out because of the emphasis this year on Medicare and Social Security. Jewett also notes that Democrats have increased their efforts this year to register voters this year, especially among blacks and Hispanics.

"Turnout will be vitally important," says Jewett, who works in Orlando. The candidates (and their ads) are blanketing this part of the state because its voter make-up is almost evenly split between Democrats and Republicans. "Both (candidates) will spend a lot of money down here … it will be very tight," he says.

That's about as solid a prediction as any political observer of the state will give these days, since conventional wisdom has long since flown out the window.

Just ask Rob Schroth, the pollster. A year ago when Jeb Bush's approval ratings reached 70 percent statewide, he told a reporter that he "couldn't imagine" voters would reject his brother, George W. Bush, if that rating held. It didn't. In fact, it's fallen to just over 50 percent. But Schroth still jokes about having to eat his words.

Now he's adjusted his predictions, saying Florida is good microcosm for the rest of the country - where other presumptions about this presidential race are falling flat, too.