Corzine's Fall Has Been Festering for a While
How could this have happened in a state where Barack Obama defeated John McCain by 15.5 percent last year and where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 700,000?
Republicans were ecstatic over their Virginia victory; their joy over the New Jersey win is almost indescribable. Just a year after being trounced across the board, the GOP picks up a governor's seat in a solid Democratic state over an extremely well-funded incumbent.
"Chris Christie secured a major victory for the Republican Party tonight," Republican Governors Association Chairman Haley Barbour said in a statement. "Defeating a deep-pocketed incumbent in a Democratic state like New Jersey is a tremendous accomplishment and signals the beginning of the GOP's comeback."
But before declaring a GOP comeback and assigning blame to President Obama and national Democrats, don't forget that Corzine's downfall has been festering - independent of national trends - for the past 18 months; his approval rating began to tank in 2008 – in the middle of a historically successful year for national Democrats.
And not one poll during the gubernatorial race this year showed Corzine with more than 43 percent support.
Simply put, New Jersey voters have been looking at other options for a while.
In fact, most people – 38 percent – said that the quality that mattered most in a candidate was that he could "bring needed change." And of those, 66 percent went with Christie.
Ultimately, however, independents wound up ending Corzine's hold on the governor's office.
Just like in Virginia, independents broke in huge numbers for the Republican. On top of that, the young voters that turned out for Mr. Obama last year stayed home.
Christie won 58 percent of independent voters according to exit polls; Corzine only 31 percent. Compare that to Mr. Obama receiving 51 percent of independents last year.
5488506And, again, while exit polls show this isn't a direct referendum on Mr. Obama – 60 percent said Mr. Obama wasn't a factor in their decision today – similar warning signs regarding how much the president can actually do to boost a flagging candidate were revealed.
Mr. Obama made 5 campaign stops for Corzine in the past few months, two as recently as Sunday, in an effort to encourage Mr. Obama's biggest supporters to turn out. But with Corzine's horrible approval numbers, even the president, who has a 58 percent approval rating in New Jersey, couldn't salvage Corzine's re-election bid.
This failure raises the question: will the president be able to transfer his clout to underwhelming candidates in next year's midterms, when he's not on the ballot yet again?
They have 12 months to figure it out, but Democrats are no doubt worried about closing that enthusiasm gap to avoid a serious meltdown in 2010.
One more concern for Democrats: the high number of New Jersey voters who are worried about the direction of the nation's economy: 89 percent. Virginia voters are almost equally as worried.
As for independent Chris Daggett, who just a few weeks ago was being called a spoiler and was expected to have a major impact in Tuesday's election: well, not so much.
He ended up in mid-single digits, far from the 15-20 percent some polls showed in recent weeks.
And it turns out he actually took more votes from Corzine than Christie, counter to the conventional wisdom leading into Tuesday's vote. Of those polled who said if they didn't vote for Daggett but would have chosen either Corzine or Christie, 33 percent said they would have voted for Corzine, 20 percent said Christie.
CBSNews.com Election Night Coverage:
Results
All Election Night 2009 Results
Republicans Sweep N.J., Va. Gov. Races
N.Y. Democrat Owens Wins House Seat
Maine Voters Reject Gay Marriage
Breckenridge, Colo., Votes to Legalize Pot
Analysis
What McDonnell's Win Means for the GOP, Obama
Corzine's Fall Has Been Festering for a While
What Doug Hoffman's Loss Means to Conservatives
Lessons for the White House from '09 Election Results
Why Christie Won in New Jersey
McDonnell Won Due to Turnout, Independents
Exit Polls in Va. and N.J.: The Obama (Non) Factor?
Steve Chaggaris is CBS News' Political Director. You can read more of his posts in Hotsheet here.