Big Six Candidates Shuffle Strategy

By The Politico's Mike Allen.

Familiar assumptions about who is inevitable and who is simply treading water have been dislodged since the recent close of the first-quarter fundraising period. The Politico checked in with aides and advisers to each of the Big Six for a snapshot of how they see the new landscape and how they plan to capitalize on — or recover from — the spate of unexpected developments:

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.)

On Wednesday, McCain will try to take the offensive on a potentially crippling issue by stepping into a presidential setting at Virginia Military Institute to implore Americans to give President Bush's "surge" strategy — and, by implication, the McCain candidacy — a chance. Aides say the senator plans to portray Iraq as part of a larger, ongoing struggle for the soul of the Muslim world and will discuss what has gone wrong and what has gone right. McCain had planned to make his candidacy official about now, but he's instead doing damage control after coming in last in fundraising among top-tier candidates and undermining his "straight talk" trademark with a rosy account of conditions in Baghdad.

McCain now plans to begin his announcement tour April 25 in New Hampshire, followed by one-day blitzes of South Carolina, Iowa and Arizona. Before then, however, he is trying to revive his old luster on issues that once were central to his reformer profile: There will be a speech in Memphis on spending control, taxes and trade, as well as another policy address the following week, tentatively touting free-market energy policies similar to those promoted by California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani

The former New York mayor might have enhanced his own reputation for straight talk, but it could have come at the cost of conservative primary voters when he answered "yes" to CNN's Dana Bash when asked if he still favors public funding for some abortions. Aides say he intended to make it clear that he doesn't plan to pander to the party's right wing, but even some GOP moderates were aghast. Now, Giuliani's more precise — and more political — message is that he favors the status quo and wouldn't try to change current law. And he will say he doesn't think abortion should be criminalized.

Giuliani, who got an effusive reception at the conservative Club for Growth late last month, hopes to transcend the stumble over abortion by emphasizing economic issues, combined with a claim that he is "the true fiscal conservative in the race." He will amplify his calls for tax simplification and elimination of the inheritance tax, which he and other Republicans call the "death tax." Previewing Giuliani's message, an aide says: "He took a city with out-of-control spending, reined it in and lowered taxes 23 times. He doesn't just talk about these things. He actually did it."

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney

Appearing to be the well-organized businessman his résumé suggests, Romney was the champion Republican fundraiser and is now getting a second look from old hands in the Washington establishment, some of whom say in interviews that Romney may wind up as the nominee by process of elimination if McCain and Giuliani stumble. The morning after the money announcement, Kevin Madden, Romney's campaign press secretary, started his daily memo to reporters with a cheeky shout-out to "all the new additions to the Romney Rundown e-mail list that signed up yesterday."

An aide says Romney will "use this stage that he now has" to talk about big issues. On Tuesday, Romney will travel to the George Bush Presidential Library in College Station, Texas, to deliver a speech calling for revitalizing American alliances to take on global terrorism, in the same way the U.S. looked abroad after World War II. The subtext might seem to be that Romney is calling for greater engagement abroad than is practiced by this administration, but the campaign says the address is not meant as subtle criticism or political triangulation. Aides say the speech will also call for a reversal of several Clinton administration policy decisions on weapons and defense spending.

Romney last week kicked off an "Ask Mitt Anything" series in Iowa and New Hampshire. He expected the question he got about Mormonism but not one he received about returning the United States to the gold standard.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.)

When the Democrat was being portrayed as the prohibitive front-runner, Clinton's aides said she planned to work for every dollar and every vote. Now, they have no choice but to really believe it. One aide reports "a little more of a spring in our step as far as working harder."

But Clinton officials contend they are sticking to the plan. "The theory of the case is unchanged," says a campaign official. "Strength, experience and record win." Asked about Obama's financial showing, another Clinton official says: "The money thing is going to wear off, and the same questions are going to remain about every candidate." Repeating a campaign mantra, the official says, "Are you going to be able to take over on Day One and be president?"

The senator and former president Bill Clinton kept an Easter tradition by staying with a friend at a Caribbean resort. She is back now, stressing commander-in-chief issues with a visit to Fort Drum, N.Y. Next week, she will introduce a bill to promote better detection and treatment of brain injuries for members of the armed forces. A petition button on her campaign home page urges, "Take Action on Iraq: Tell President Bush not to veto the will of the American people."

Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.)

After nearly surpassing the Clinton machine in money-raising, Obama is moving quickly to show that he is serious in every way, trying to answer the persistent question about his candidacy: Will he have the substance to back up the charisma? Advisers say that in coming weeks, he plans to begin rolling out policy proposals on issues like education, national security, energy and health care. Nevertheless, an adviser says, "People are looking for leadership more than they're looking to see what's in every line of every paragraph."

Obama, who said his financial figures had "sent an unmistaken message to the political establishment," is looking for creative ways to channel the enthusiasm of his supporters. He held a night of house parties around the country, and other collaborative activities will follow. "We have to be nimble enough to adapt to the support," the adviser says. When Obama held a conversation about community health care last week, the live and archived coverage on his Web site included a box called "My Policy" for supporters to give their own policy ideas or describe their experiences. Thousands of people did. Asked whether those comments will show up in future policy documents or speeches, the adviser says, "Absolutely."

Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards

The "Send a Message to Elizabeth and John" feature at JohnEdwards.com now asks users if they'd like to receive future e-mails, and the campaign says those who've used it in the past will soon get an e-mail asking if they want to remain on the list. The change is in response to some news accounts portraying Edwards as opportunistic after people were solicited for funds after sending sympathy cards to Elizabeth Edwards about her cancer recurrence. "It was an oversight that's been fixed," an aide says.

The couple is likely to take a tutor on the campaign plane so their young children can travel with both of them, meaning that coverage of her illness will continue. That is a potentially mixed blessing, since the campaign recognizes that some voters will agree with Edwards' decision to continue his bid and some won't. "We're not going to spend the rest of the campaign trying to highlight this," an adviser says. "This campaign is about John Edwards' vision for the future."

After finishing third in fundraising among Democrats, Edwards must hustle to show that the nomination is not already a two-person contest. Backers point out that Edwards leads in polls in Iowa, home to the first-in-the-nation caucuses. Democratic strategists also calculate that being a white male running against an African-American and a woman could help him in some states, regardless of what voters tell pollsters.

By Mike Allen
TM & © 2007 The Politico & Politico.com, a division of Allbritton Communications Company