All-Out War Over Kashmir?

Killing and violence is a routine occurrence in the 52-year Indo-Pakistan dispute over Kashmir. Now, however, the CIA is warning that tensions between the two nuclear powers are higher than at any time in the last 30 years.

CBS News National Security Correspondent David Martin reports that just last year India and Pakistan fought a nasty artillery duel that narrowly missed escalating to full scale war. Last month CIA Director George Tenet told Congress the fighting continues at an ominous pace.

"We are particularly concerned that heavy fighting is continuing through the winter, unlike in the past, and probably will increase significantly in the spring," he said.

In the weeks since that warning, both sides have continued to build up their forces in Kashmir, and the CIA has picked up new intelligence that India's leaders believe war is inevitable. India may, in fact, actually attempt to provoke it.

According to South Asia analyst Michael Krepon, "The feeling in India is a mixture of cockiness and frustration, which is a combustible mix."

Cocky, because India has just increased its defense budget by a whopping 28 percent. Frustrated, because the Indian military has not been allowed to use its overwhelming military superiority against Pakistan. "They're tired of fighting with one hand tied behind their back," Krepon thinks.

There are no signs full-scale war is imminent, but both countries are on a collision course, and the their governments are not even speaking to each other.

The Clinton administration failed to talk either out of developing nuclear weapons; now, it must try to persuade them not to start a war in which those weapons might be used.