A Look Back At Surprise Storm

In the early to middle part of January, the atmosphere underwent a typical "La Nina Year" change; a pretty drastic one, finally bringing winter's cold to the eastern states. There have also been hints of powerful snowstorms for the Eastern seaboard. In fact, nearly a half dozen chances have been depicted by various weather maps for different times.

Late last week, we had snow and ice in the Middle Atlantic states, the worst of which occurred from the DC/Baltimore area southward into North Carolina. Weather maps did a decent job of "handling" this storm until it moved offshore. What might have been a blockbuster storm for the Northeast turned out to be a monster storm for the Canadian Maritimes. The central pressure of that storm wold have made a category two or three hurricane proud!

Craig Allen

So now we come to Monday and Tuesday. Here's this snow and ice storm crippling sections of the South & Southeast. Much atmospheric energy was waiting for it nearer to the coast but it too would track out to sea and all eyes would turn to the next possibility of a brutal snowstorm, along about Wednesday or Thursday.

Well...the steering currents are undergoing a major backing right under our noses which would drive the snowstorm up the coast. However, the weather maps pretty much insisted that would not be the case.

There are about six different weather map "models" of the atmosphere that predict out to 48, 60, 72 hours, all the way to 168 hours in advance. They all have their quirks and biases which a trained meteorologist should be able to incorporate in his or her thinking before "walking the plank" - a phrase that many of my colleagues feel like doing when we have to forecast accumulations! At one point, model "A" said it could snow but model "B" did not. Later on, model "B" predicted a snowfall up the Eastern Seaboard but model "A" did an about face and said no. The various other shorter range models nestled comfortably in between with a "compromising" solution.

So, while we're having dinner in the eastern states, fairly confident that this would be no big deal, this feisty snow and ice maker is turning northward and intensifying and we're scratching our heads. It was defying almost everything we had on paper. By mid-evening, snow is spreading north-northwestward off the Atlanti up towards the major cities. This was just...not...right!

By 9:30 p.m., I pulled the trigger for my forecast area, upping totals from a coating to an inch or two to "4 to 8 inches," higher north and west of New York City, lower near the coastline. At the same time, Winter Storm Warnings are flying from most National Weather Service offices from Virginia to lower New England. Needless to say, this defiant little monster spread near-blizzard conditions up I-95 through the night and into Tuesday morning with up to two feet in some cities.

I know we live and die by these weather maps. There's an overload of information. We end up comparing good and bad points and forecasting because we think "A" or "B" or "C" is the better choice or worse yet, some may "wishcast" based upon their own preferences or biases.

I think it's time for forecasters to sit down and use a little more intuition in situations like this. Perhaps we would have broken the leg-hold and forecasted this storm earlier and better. Best leave that for another topic. For now, I am going to sit down...because this one knocked me out!

By Craig Allen