VIDEO: Auto Sales Expected To Show Slow Growth In 2015

BIRMINGHAM (WWJ) - The steady growth we've seen in car sales this year is expected to continue into next year, but not quite at the same pace.

"We're really looking for next year, a slower growth rate, but again, positive," said Jeff Schuster, who heads the forecasting team at LMC Automotive. Schuster releasing the projections at the company's annual forecasting conference today.

Sales will total about 16.4 million this year, says Schuster, growing to 16.8 million next year. He expects them to stay in the 17 million level, until the economy slows down, which often happens when there's an unforeseen event.

"Until there's a big event, now it could be economic, it could be natural disaster or something like that, that really affects things, it looks very positive right now," he said.

But Schuster was quick to add that the automakers are much better at changing production to meet changing demand, both in terms of sales, and of customer preferences.

Right now, those preferences are leaning strongly to the truck side.

"Looking at gas prices, you can see some of the motivation there," said Schuster. "There are also some good programs out on the truck side of the environment."

The car and truck sales numbers for October will be released on Monday. Schuster and most other forecasters are predicting an increase of about six percent over last year.

"We're looking at the strongest October since 2004, with incentive spending at healthy levels, and on-track to finish the year at 16.4 million units," said John Krafcik, president of TrueCar.

Once again, Chrysler is expected to lead the pack, mostly because of new products, especially Jeep. But, Krafcik says it remains a very competitive market.

"Fiat Chrysler's growth, fueled by Jeep and Ram, has set up a dogfight this month, with FCA, Ford and Toyota battling for second place behind GM in total volume."

Car and truck sales are also competitive on a global level, but the competitive landscape is changing, according to LMC's Jeff Schuster. He expects to see proportionately more sales in established markets like the U.S., Europe and China, and a slight cooling in emerging markets.

"They are emerging," he said. "They are markets that are more volatile."

But Schuster expects another global sales record next year, 87 million vehicles, up 3 percent from this year.

"The risk is heavily concentrated in Russia, in Brazil and Argentina, India and Thailand."

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