Low voter turnout in Tuesday's Illinois primary election could benefit incumbents
CHICAGO (CBS) – Tuesday is primary Election Day in Illinois and turnout in Chicago could be low based on early voting and vote-by-mail numbers on Monday.
With the presidential primary race all but locked up by Donald Trump and incumbent Joe Biden, it appeared huge numbers of voters might stay home. That could have a big impact on races up and down the ballot, from Congress to the Cook County State's Attorney's Office.
"Sleepy" is how some poll watchers described Tuesday's election. Voters who are angry, fed up or dissatisfied with the candidates at the top of the ticket, namely Trump and Biden, could stay at home in November as well.
But, with big races and big decisions looming, a small turnout means a very small number of people being able to tilt a race in one direction.
In low-turnout elections, the winners tend to be incumbents like U.S. Reps. Jesus "Chuy" Garcia and Danny Davis, who are running to keep their seats in Congress. Both Democrats have strong name recognition and low voter turnout helps keep challengers from gaining too much momentum.
"I think it is a testimony to how dysfunctional our democracy has become and how disgusted the voters are in general, no matter whether they are conservative or liberal, with particularly the national government," said University of Illinois Chicago professor emeritus Dick Simpson.
Low turnout also means candidates with the party's official backing gain the upper hand. Also, those with the support of party leaders also stand to benefit.
In the race to be the next Cook County State's Attorney, Clayton Harris has the Democratic Party's backing, including that of political heavyweight Toni Preckwinkle. And with that support comes the machine of the party rowing in his direction, despite his opponent, Eileen O'Neil Burke, outspending Harris by a large margin.
"It tends to help Harris," said Simpson. "Burke has had many more ads on television and that will influence the vote without a doubt, but again, Harris has at least the regular Democratic party, precinct workers working on his behalf."
The low turnout also could help get the Bring Chicago Home ballot question over the finish line, which would raise the real estate transfer tax on homes valued at over $1 million to help fight homelessness. Those in favor of the plan have a thorough campaign underway, from door knocking to signs to text messages to voters.
Those opposed to the measure aren't as coordinated and aggressive.
If the supporters of the measure can get even a small number of voters to the polls, Simpson said that could move the vote toward approval quite easily.
