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Californians Seeking More Affordable Homes Could Be Turning Arizona, Nevada Blue In 2020, Report Finds

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS SF) – People moving from pricey California metros such as the Bay Area has likely led to an uptick of registered Democrats in Arizona and Nevada, which could help deliver the states to Joe Biden in the upcoming November election, according to a new study.

The report from real estate brokerage Redfin found the gains among registered Democrats in both states is likely due in part to people leaving the Golden State. In 2019, California had a net loss of 200,000 people to other states, more than any other state. Meanwhile, Arizona saw a net increase of 91,000 people and Nevada had a net increase of 43,000 people last year, two of the largest net increases. The brokerage expects increased migration to the two states in 2020.

Census data has also found Reno, Las Vegas and Phoenix were the most popular destinations for people leaving California.

ALSO READ: San Francisco Studio Rents Down 31% Year-Over-Year As Pandemic Slump Continues

The brokerage found Arizona, which President Donald Trump won by 91,000 votes in 2016, has gained 51,400 more Democrats than Republicans over the last four years.

Arizona has also added 49,000 voters not registered with either major party, so-called independents, which helped Trump win Arizona in 2016. Recent polls show Trump virtually tied or losing to Biden among independents in the state.

Last weekend, a poll released by CBS News showed Biden leading Trump in Arizona, 50% to 45%. The poll of 1,087 voters has a margin of error of plus / minus 3.5 percentage points.

"Arizona could vote for the Democratic presidential candidate for the first time since 1996, a flip that would be partly due to migrants priced out of liberal cities like San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle and Chicago," said Redfin economist Taylor Marr.

The economist said migration into Arizona has accelerated this year amid the COVID-19 pandemic, which has prompted many people to work from home and the flexibility to relocate to more affordable areas. The median home sale price in the the Phoenix area in September was about $330,000, a far cry from prices in the Bay Area.

ALSO READ: COVID Exodus: Home For Sale Listings Soar As Pandemic's Economic Impact Grips San Francisco

Meanwhile in Nevada, a battleground that Hillary Clinton won by 27,000 votes in 2016, the state has gained 3,000 more Democrats than Republicans since the last presidential election. The Silver State has also gained 96,000 independent voters in that time frame, mostly in Las Vegas and Reno, which went Democratic in 2016.

A CBS News poll of 1,052 Nevada voters earlier this month found Biden leading in the Silver State 52% to 46%, with a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.


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