Worst Poll Numbers Ever For Bush

Analysis by David Paul Kuhn,
CBSNews.com Chief Political Writer

While more than half of Americans now believe the economy is in good shape, fully 65 percent still think the country is on the wrong track – matching the highest number ever recorded.

The last time this many Americans disapproved of the direction of the United States it was November 1994, and the Republicans were about to take back the Congress after 40 years of domination by the Democrats.

These are the worst poll numbers of Mr. Bush's presidency.

In spite of Sen. John Kerry remaining unknown to a third of the American electorate, the poll found that he holds an 8-point lead over Mr. Bush, 49 to 41 percent in a head-to-head match-up. The last CBS News poll measuring the head-to-head contest, in April, showed Mr. Bush leading Kerry, 43 to 41 percent.

With third-party challenger Ralph Nader in the field, Kerry's lead drops to 6 points.

Although many polls over the past weeks have shown the president's overall approval rating drop precipitously, this latest poll shows clearly that Americans now view the war in Iraq as the most important issue in the 2004 presidential election.

"I don't think there is any doubt about it, [the election] is about Iraq now," said Stu Rothenberg, editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. "If it was about the economy the president would be in pretty good shape. For right now, he is operating out of great weakness in Iraq, which means he really needs some good news to come out of there."

Well beyond party lines, 61 percent of Americans disapprove of Mr. Bush's handling of the war in Iraq. Sixty percent do not think the war was worth the cost; that's a 12 percent increase compared to last month.

It is clear that the abuse scandal at Abu Ghraib prison near Baghdad has stoked increased dissent among Americans over the Bush administration's handling of the war. Even in April 2004, when the U.S. suffered nearly as many casualties as in the first two months of major combat, Americans were not nearly this dissatisfied.

Yet as approval of the war in Iraq reaches new lows, the country remains evenly split on whether the U.S. invasion was a mistake: 49 percent say it was, 46 percent say it was not.

At first blush, it seems equally as hard for Americans to question the initial decision to invade Iraq as it is for this White House. But the split may also represent a nuanced mindset of Americans. Half could believe the defrocking of Saddam Hussein was a good thing while questioning how the Bush administration went about it.

Ominously though, the division reflects the public's view of the Vietnam War in midyear 1968. A Gallup Poll then – before the bulk of anti-war protesting stateside – found that Americans were evenly split on whether the U.S. had made a mistake by involving itself in Vietnam.

For the Bush campaign, the Vietnam comparison has always been considered imprudent, while certainly an apt reminder of what wars can do to presidents. The campaign hopes that as Mr. Bush begins to speak in the coming weeks on his plan to stabilize Iraq, as well as the June 30 partial handover of power, there will be at least a tempering of voter discontent.

"The president really needs to do something and it has to be more than merely some cheerleading on Iraq," Rothenberg said. "He's got to put some policy on the table."

Illustrating the daunting task Mr. Bush faces as he begins to go before the American public to recast the war, 63 percent of the public believes the handover will not go forward. Sixty percent think the Bush administration does not have a clear plan. And half of those polled believe the United States should turn over control to Iraqis now.

The poll, conducted May 20 to 23, sampled 1,113 Americans. It has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

The poll asked respondents: "If the 2004 election were being held today and the candidates were John Kerry, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican, would you vote for John Kerry or George W. Bush?"

In April, 91 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Mr. Bush. Now, that number has shrunk to 84 percent, marking the first clear break in what has been a remarkably fortified Republican base of support for Mr. Bush.

The fact that 9 out of 10 Republicans had backed Mr. Bush was of great solace to senior Bush campaign advisers, as it was akin to levels of support under former President Ronald Reagan. The weakening of this voter base for Mr. Bush is now looking more analogous to his father, ex-President George H.W. Bush, who was not reelected.

The one encouraging finding for the Bush campaign was that of his supporters, fully 57 percent strongly favor the president. Kerry's support is much more tenuous. About a third of his supporters back him wholeheartedly; another third supports him with reservations; and another third say they do because they "dislike the other candidate."

Strikingly, 11 percent of Republicans support John Kerry, a 4 percent increase since last month. Mr. Bush's support among Democrats is identical, 11 percent, the same as it was in April. Kerry's overall support has increased 3 percentage points each month for the past three months, while Mr. Bush's has decreased at nearly the same rate.

President Bush is also showing signs of weakening where he has consistently been strongest. Sixty-two percent of Americans now believe he shares their moral values. That number was 68 percent last month and 75 percent in March.

Half of Americans still believe the president says what he believes, while only a third say the same the same about Kerry. But just 41 percent say the president shares their priorities, compared to 55 percent who say he does not. Slightly more Americans, 43 percent, say Kerry shares their priorities, while 40 percent say he does not.

Kerry still remains an unknown figure to many Americans - 35 percent say they hold an "undecided or unknown" view of him. But his favorable ratings are improving, though rather slowly. Thirty-two percent have a favorable perception of Kerry, while the same number hold an unfavorable view. Unfavorable ratings of Mr. Bush now strongly outweigh the favorable, 47 to 36 percent.

"I really don't think it is all that important whether people know John Kerry. The question is whether they believe Kerry is a good alternative," Rothenberg said. "If there was a perception that we had turned the corner, if we were winning, if we were going to win, that would change all the polling pretty quickly. For the moment, I think Americans feel weighted down with bad news."