Why McCain Won In Florida

CBS News Political Consultant Monika L. McDermott analyzes Sen. John's McCain's victory in the Florida GOP primary.

John McCain fashioned a hard-fought victory in the Florida GOP primary with a coalition of voters he has counted on many times before - Republican Party mavericks.

He received substantial support from independents, seculars, pro-choice voters, and those Republicans dissatisfied with the Bush administration. Voters' economic concerns also helped propel him to a win.

Mitt Romney came in a close second, winning the conservative Republican vote, including the votes of religious conservatives.

The Winning Coalition

While none of the voter groups McCain won make up a significant portion of the Republican primary electorate, together they were enough to give him a narrow victory.

McCain's chief appeal was to Republican voters who consider themselves to be independent; they made up 17 percent of the primary electorate, and McCain won 41 percent of their vote.

In addition, GOP moderates and liberals were on McCain's side. The Arizona senator won 46 percent of self-described liberals (11 percent of those voting). He also won 40 percent of moderates (28 percent of GOP voters) - beating both Giuliani and Romney by 18 points among these Republicans.

One-third of Republican primary voters expressed negative feelings towards the Bush administration, saying they were either dissatisfied or angry with it. Among these voters, McCain won 43 percent of the vote, 20 points more than Romney, his closest competitor.

McCain's most impressive move, however, may have been his ability to battle Romney and Huckabee to a stand-off among Florida's evangelicals, while cleanly winning non-religious voters. Huckabee and Romney each won 30 percent of the evangelical vote, but McCain won a nearly equal 28 percent. At the same time, McCain won 41 percent of voters who do not attend church.

Similarly, McCain carried the pro-choice vote, which was a sizable proportion of the electorate. Among the 43 percent who would prefer that abortion remain legal in at least most cases, 43 percent voted for McCain, compared to 26 percent for Romney, and only 20 percent for Giuliani - the one candidate in the race not claiming to be pro-life.

One final group that helped put McCain over the top was Florida's Hispanics. Cubans made up six percent of the electorate, and non-Cuban Hispanics accounted for another four percent. Among both groups. McCain won half the vote - 51 percent overall. This is in stark contrast to his performance in Florida in the 2000 primary, when he won 8 points less of the vote from Hispanics than he did overall.

It's the Economy

GOP voters went to the polls with the economy on their minds. But differing perceptions of how the economy is doing, along with divisions over taxes and the budget deficit, divided the electorate and helped make the race a close one.

Forty-five percent of Republican voters cited the economy as the most important issue facing the nation. Despite Romney's emphasis on his business experience, however, the issue was more profitable for McCain. Among those who felt the economy was the top issue, 38 percent supported McCain while 32 percent voted for Romney.

Among those voters who said the economy was not good, or poor - 63 percent of the total -- McCain beat Romney by 12 points. Among the much smaller group who said the economy is doing well, Romney won by 15 points.

Economic policy differences were also tied to voter choices. Half of the primary voters would prefer that the next president place a higher priority on cutting taxes than on reducing the budget deficit. These voters favored Romney by 36 percent to McCain's 27 percent. For those who would prefer placing a priority on the deficit over tax cuts, the vote was reversed - 40 percent to 27 percent for McCain and Romney respectively.

In general, Florida's Republican primary voters were influenced by both issues and candidates' personal qualities when making their vote choice. Fifty percent rated issues as a more important factor their vote, while 48 percent who were more concerned with leadership and personal qualities.

Those who made their choice based on the issues supported Romney over McCain, 35 to 25 percent. Among those who cared more about the candidates' personal qualities, McCain won 42 percent to 28 percent for Romney.

On another issue of concern - immigration - Romney came out the big winner, besting McCain by 21 points. On the war in Iraq, McCain won easily. Finally, on the issue of terrorism (rated most important by 21 percent of voters) there was a rough three-way tie with Romney winning 29 percent, Giuliani 27 percent and McCain 24 percent.

Getting Personal

When it came to personal qualities, 36 percent of voters said that the quality that mattered most to their vote was having a candidate who shares their values - and Romney was that candidate. But the second-most important quality was McCain's strong suit - experience. Thirty percent chose this quality as the most important, and 41 percent of them went for McCain, as compared to 34 percent for Romney.

McCain easily won those voters who were looking for "straight talk." Twenty-one percent of voters were looking for a candidate who says what he believes, and 41 percent of them voted for McCain. Only 19 percent of these voters chose Romney.

McCain was also seen as the most electable candidate, even though it was not an important issue to primary voters. Among the nine percent who most wanted a candidate who could win in November, McCain won a majority of the vote - 51 percent. And when asked straight up which candidate they believe has the best chance of winning, 45 percent said McCain. One-third said Romney had the best shot.

The CBS News Florida exit poll was conducted by Edison Media Research among 1,506 voters as they left the polls on Tuesday January 29th. The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Monika L. McDermott is assistant professor of political science at the University of Connecticut, where she teaches and conducts research on voting behavior and public opinion. Before joining the University of Connecticut, McDermott worked in election polling for CBS News and the Los Angeles Times. She holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of California, Los Angeles.