Where Ethan Went Wrong

Chapera:

• Rob M. His overconfidence is growing increasingly obnoxious and could come back to bite him. If you watch Survivor Insider, you get the definite sense that Tom, Rupert and Alicia resent the hell out of Rob and that he is unlikely to realize this until it is too late. Bottom line, he should not have shown up Rupert and he should keep his mouth shut regarding Alicia until the other tribe has been dispensed with. It looks as if he is separated from his girl next week, which could be a preview of things to come down the road. For now, Rob's post-merge strategy appears to be and should be to target Lex and manipulate Kathy. This will serve him well, but he needs to check his hubris at the door or Rupert/Jenna/Alicia/Tom could take him out.
• Amber. It looks as if the tribes are jumbled next week and that Amber is not happy about it at all. I wonder at the severity of the consequences because it is highly unlikely that she gets placed on a team that has more Mogo Mogo members than Chapera members. Still, it is a good bet that she gets torn away from Rob, which she should view as an opportunity to make new friends and not be so intertwined with one person. She won't, but it would be the smart thing to do.
• Tom. Tom seems closer to Rob than Rupert does, which is a good thing for now because it gives him options. Other than that, not much was revealed the last episode. Luckily, Survivor Insider had a few interesting tidbits. Tom has apparently bonded with Rupert over their mutual hatred of the constant plotting back at camp. He also really, really, really, really, really hates Alicia. Really. Tom can take it easy for the next 12 days as Chapera will likely eliminate Mogo Mogo systematically, but then he is going to have to choose is alliance - : Jenna/Rupert or Rob/Amber. Either way, he looks bound for the final four yet again.
• Alicia. I guess there is a lot of footage on the cutting room floor of Alicia kicking adorable puppies and spitting on babies because I haven't seen anything to indicate why she elicited such a strong reaction in the Survivor Insider clips. She goes from my sleeper pick to my goat because if she had just played nicely with others, she could have gone further. As it stands now, she looks to be the first Chapera on the chopping block after Mogo Mogo is gone.
• Rupert. It is obvious to me and it should be obvious to him that Rob has grown tired of Rupert and would not hesitate to take him out. Hopefully, Rupert's instincts will kick in and not fail him as they did the last time. He needs to pull Tom into an alliance and use his oafish charms to get Jenna to come along as well.
• Jenna L. Is she still on this show? Jenna received little screen time this week, so it's hard to judge her situation. Whatever the circumstances, she needs to be aggressively opportunistic and look for the deal that puts her in the final three. Passivity failed her in Season One, and I doubt she will make the same mistake twice.

Predictions for the week after that: The teams will be redistributed randomly with Amber and Rob being separated. If Rob senses Amber is in danger, he could throw an immunity challenge to save her, but I don't think it will come to that. Lex will be gone if his team fails to win immunity, with Jerri and Shii Ann being plausible alternative targets if his team does win.

Written By GREG FELTES