Swing State Swing: Arizona

We asked our chief political writer, David Paul Kuhn, to get in a car and drive from Portland, Maine to Portland, Ore., via all the Battleground States – those states expected to be the most hotly contested in the presidential election. Armed with a pen, laptop, camera and plenty of No Doz, Kuhn is sending back dispatches that will offer impressions and snapshots of a country making up its mind.

ARIZONA

Winslow

Sixty-year-old Jessie White is proud that Winslow's population of 10,000 hasn't changed since 1900. She also thinks a good president is one you never have to think about. For Jessie, things are better off left alone.

Trying to recall a Democratic president she supported, she blurts Jimmy Carter's name.

"I liked Carter, and it turns out he was a really good president," she said in front of the grocery store in Winslow. "He didn't do anything, and that's what a president should do, represent us without butting in."

Jessie said that she's going to vote for George Bush because, "He's a good president and Kerry's scary."

"[John Kerry's] reality challenged," she said. "He wrote a book and the facts are wrong and don't fit in with the records"

Even if White did believe the three-time Purple Heart winner accurately portrayed his Vietnam War service, she wouldn't vote for him. Her views are typical of many conservatives.

"I'm tired of the Supreme Court making the laws when the Constitution gives Congress the right to make laws," she says. "I'm concerned about the morality of this country… There is a small vocal minority that is trying to take over the country. It is extremely liberal and not Christian."

Arizona is a most Republican of swing states. Mr. Bush carried the state by a comfortable margin (51-45 percent) in 2000. Bill Clinton won here in 1996, but he is the only Democrat to do so since Harry Truman in 1948.

Nevertheless, this reliably Republican state is no sure thing for Mr. Bush in 2004. Democrats hope to capitalize on the state's growing elderly and minority population.

A poll conducted July 31-Aug. 1 for the Arizona Republic newspaper showed the president with a narrow 48-45 percent lead over Kerry. And there was more bad news for Mr. Bush on Tuesday.

The Republic reported that a poll of voters in Republican-dominated Maricopa County showed a sharp drop in support for Mr. Bush. The Phoenix-area county contains 60 percent of the state's population and is crucial to Mr. Bush's chances of carrying the state.

Three previously polls showed Mr. Bush with a 12-point lead among Maricopa voters. But a poll conducted in mid-August by the Behavior Research Center showed the president's lead over Kerry has dipped to five points.

Such poll numbers aren't likely to make a difference to solid Republican voters like Jessie White and her husband, Delbert.

Delbert, 67, says Mr. Bush "tries to be honest with people."

"He has a respect for God. He goes ahead and tries to do what he wants to do," Delbert says. "He has a respect for life which I appreciate and I honor greatly. I'll vote for either party whenever its right but I just believe he's by far the best this time."

Phoenix

In and Out Burger is a fast food joint.

Fortysomethings John and Tracy Dombroski have just finished eating. John says he's "probably" supporting George Bush.

Tracy: "Not probably, we're Bush backers."

John hesitates.

Tracy: "No, you're definitely voting for Bush."

John demurs. He says that essentially, he's backing George Bush. "I feel more comfortable with the president," John explains.

Tracy: "I would like to see him lower taxes."

John: "I would like to see him lower taxes… I would like to see there be some lower cost medical insurance for the country. That is an issue that is a problem, that isn't really getting the attention it needs right now based on everything going on in the world."

They are Republicans because they believe in less government.

Tracy: "We are intelligent enough to make our own decisions on taxes … That's why this was started," meaning the country. "The Boston Tea Party, people were against taxation and I think that's gotten way out of hand."

Parker

Surrounded by desert and distant lifeless mountains, Parker is a barren-looking place place that is home to 3,000 people.

"I really like Bill Clinton, if you wanna know the truth. I thought Bill Clinton did a great job," says 57-year-old Ed DeMascio. And he'd vote for Clinton again if the former president could serve a third term.

"I don't care about his personal life. I thought Bill did a great job in running the country," he says. "There was a lot of jobs. There was extra money in the budget. The extra money was cut. I've always just kinds liked Bill."

DeMascio now supports Kerry, though with not nearly the enthusiasm he shows for Clinton.

"I'm not real excited about him, but he's the lesser of the two evils," DeMascio says.

"I think I'm going to go for Kerry because George had his chance," DeMascio explains. "If you can't do very good in four years another four I can see things getting worse, not better."

"I think [President Bush] really dropped the ball with Iraq," he continues. "He got us into a horrible mess that we are going to have a really tough time getting out of."

He hopes Kerry will "get us out of the mess in Iraq."

DeMascio especially wants Kerry to "try to straighten our name up and just give a better image for our name around the world."

By David Paul Kuhn