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'Survivor': Why Rupert's Gone

Analysis of "Survivor: Pearl Islands" episode 10, by CBS station WBBM in Chicago's "Survivor" columnist Greg Feltes.

First, let's take a quick look back at my "expert" analysis last week:

... Prediction for Next Week:

All of this talk of a coup is all smoke and mirrors. Darrah is voted out in another blowout.

Updated Final Two Prediction:

Christa vs. Sandra ...

Ooops. I guess, much like Rupert himself, I was blinded by my love for all things Rupert. He was such an entertaining character that sometimes I forgot that the players don't exactly care about such a thing. He's gone and the show has been flipped, turned upside down.

Why Rupert is Gone:

1. He kept Jon instead of Shawn before the merge. At the time, it was a judgment call that you could argue both sides of: Shawn could easily realign with Burton and Jon was a jerk. They thought the former was a bigger threat than the latter. They were wrong and I thought they were at the time. Even at that early stage, Jon had proven continuously untrustworthy and had broken several alliances. He even went gunning for Rupert before.

2. He was too much of a physical threat. It's ludicrous to believe that someone could win seven or eight challenges in a row and walk away with the game. However, if anyone could do it, it would be Rupert.

3. He got overconfident. The cardinal sin of "Survivor" strategy. In the opening moments of the episode, he was already talking like he was in the final three. In the final moments of the episode, he was talking about being gone. The reason? He didn't even try to hide the fact that he had excluded everyone but Sandra and Christa from the final three. It was stupid to believe that Jon and Burton would accept fifth and fourth place finishes.

4. He was just a little too crazy for his own good. Rupert obviously has some very real emotional problems from when he was a kid and those feelings became a self-fulfilling prophecy.

This Week's Survivor Power Rankings:

7. Christa: Without Rupert to protect her, she has to fend for herself and she's not in the best position to do so. She is annoying and didn't take the time to make other relationships outside of her own alliance, which leaves her with very few strategic options. It also appears next week that she will be suspected of sabotage and in "Survivor," it's guilty until proven voted out.

6. Sandra: She's essentially in the same position as Christa, but she appears less naïve and the more strategic thinker of the two. Still, she has a very acrimonious relationship with Jon, which could lead to her getting the boot before Christa.

5. Darrah: She's here thanks to being in the right place at the right time. She traded up from an eight-place finish to a sixth, which isn't a bad move. However, she and Tijuana are outside the core alliance of three and she contributes the least of the two.

4. Tijuana: She's essentially in the same position as Darrah, but she is the harder working of the two.

3. Lillian: She is basically being dragged along by Burton and Jon. Yet, she is the most well liked of the three and has proven increasingly resilient of the remaining players, she probably fares the best in a jury vote.

2. Jon: For all his weaknesses, Jon has kept his options open and now has a cakewalk to the final. Still, Rupert thought that and now is gone. And even if he makes it to the final two, he is so hated and distrusted that I can't see him winning.

1. Burton: He will almost certainly win any physical challenge thrown his way, which is good because all of the past winners in this game have had a timely challenge win or two. Both Lillian and Jon intend on taking him to the final two. His only fear should be a makeshift all-female alliance.

Prediction for Next Week:

Christa doesn't win immunity and is gone after an attempt of aligning with Darrah and Tijuana fails.

Updated Final Two Prediction:

Lillian vs. Burton

By Greg Feltes