Poll: McCain's The Man In N.H.

If the New Hampshire primary is a contest for the support of unaffiliated voters, it appears that at least for now, Arizona Senator John McCain is leading among them, as well as among Republican primary voters. McCain's success with the unaffiliated may also be part of the reason for Vice President Al Gore's lead over former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley among Democratic primary voters.

According to the new CBS News New Hampshire Poll, registered New Hampshire voters who say they will definitely vote in the Republican primary give McCain a lead over Texas Governor George W. Bush, 39 percent to 33 percent. Steve Forbes gets 12 percent. On the Democratic side, definite primary voters favor Gore over Bradley 47 percent to 39 percent. In each primary, about one-quarter of those definitely participating are unaffiliated voters.

But the race is still very fluid. Most voters have not yet committed to a candidate: 52 percent of Democratic primary voters and 58 percent of Republican primary voters who currently support a candidate say their minds can still change.

Unaffiliated, or independent, voters can vote in either primary in New Hampshire. More than a third of those registered as unaffiliated now say they will vote in the Republican primary, while just 23 percent will vote Democratic. And nearly half of undeclared voters now saying they will vote in the Democratic primary admit they've considered voting in the Republican primary instead. Only 29 percent of unaffiliated voters now intending to vote in the Republican primary say they've thought about voting Democratic.

Another 20 percent of the unaffiliated say they will vote, but they aren't sure in which party's primary they will participate. In all of these cases, the movement of the unaffiliated from one party to another can help or hurt the two candidates who appeal more to those voters John McCain and Bill Bradley.

McCain has had much more success than Bradley with the strategy of cultivating an outsider image to attract independent support. In the Republican contest, voters view McCain as the straight-talker, who says what he really believes, while viewing Bush as a politician who says what he thinks people want to hear. In the Democratic race, however, potential voters view Gore and Bradley similarly on such characteristics.

Whatever happens in New Hampshire on primary day, most voters expect Gore and Bush to win their respective parties' nominations. Even McCain's supporters think that Bush will be the Republican nominee: 63 percent predict Bush will be nominated while only 27 percent think McCain will. Bradley's voters have only slightly more faith: 38 percent think Bradley will be the eventual nominee, but 48% expect that Gore will.

INDEPENDENT SUPPORT

Both Bradley and McCain are viewed more favorably by independent, or unaffiliated, voters than are Gore and Bush. In addition, Bradley and McCain are each viewed more favorably across party lines than are ther chief rivals.

Forty-six percent of registered independents view McCain favorably, as do 41 percent of Democrats and 53 percent of Republicans. Thirty-four percent of independents have favorable views of Bradley, while 45 percent of Democrats and 29 percent of Republicans do.

In contrast Bush and Gore each have a polarizing effect on the electorate: only 23 percent of independents and 12 percent of Democrats view Bush favorably, and only 25 percent of independents and 11 percent of Republicans view Gore favorably.

In the Republican primary, independents who say they will definitely vote give McCain a decisive 24 point edge over Bush, while definite independent voters who currently plan to participate in the Democratic race are divided in Gore's favor.

THE OUTSIDERS

Bradley vs. Gore Bradley's image among voters is one of an outsider. When asked the first thing that comes to mind when they hear the name Bill Bradley, 14 percent cite his time as a basketball player, and 10 percent mention his honesty and integrity. Only 3 percent mention Bradley's time as a Senator. Gore, on the other hand, is viewed largely on the basis of his Washington connection: 18 percent say the vice presidency is the first thing they think of when they think of Gore, and 12 percent mention Bill Clinton specifically.

Despite these image distinctions between the two candidates, Gore and Bradley both score well with potential Democratic voters on political character issues.

Potential Democratic primary voters trust both Gore and Bradley to keep their promises if elected. Sixty-seven percent say Gore will keep his word, while 58 percent say Bradley will.

Primary voters also see both candidates as more likely to say what they REALLY believe rather than what people want to hear. Fifty percent of potential Democratic primary voters say Gore more often says what he believes, while 40 percent feel he says what people want to hear. Fifty-nine percent think Bradley says what he believes, while 27 percent think he says what people want to hear.

Voters are also positive about the campaign behavior of both candidates. The overwhelming majority of potential Democratic voters think that both candidates have spent more time explaining their positions than attacking each other. Sixty-eight percent of Democratic primary voters say Gore has spent more time explaining his positions than attacking Bradley, and 66 percent say the same about Bradley and his campaign.

In some good news for Bradley, potential voters understand his continued refusal to accept Gore's proposal to ban television advertising. Fifty-six percent of potential Democratic primary voters think that candidate advertising helps candidates to get their messages to the voters, while only 33 percent see ads as unnecessary and feel they should be eliminated.

McCain vs. Bush In contrast to the Democratic race, potential Republican primary voters draw sharp distinctions between McCain and Bush on typical- politician characteristics. Fifty-three percent of likely Republican primary voters believe Bush more often says what people want to hear, and only 36 percent think he more often says what he believes. But two-thirds of likely Republican primary voters think McCain tells it like it is: 67 percent feel he more often says what he believes while only 22 percent think he says what people want to hear.

McCain's overall image is dominated by his time in a Vietnam prison, while Bush's is dominated by his father, the former President. When asked what comes to mind when they hear McCain's name, 27 percent of potential Republican primary voters mention his war record or time as a prisoner of war, and another 14 percent mention his honesty and integrity. When asked the same question about Bush, over one-third of Republican primary voters cite his father, George Bush. Another 8 percent cite generally negative sentiments, and 7 percent mention that he is the Governor of Texas.

As a defining influence on his son's image, former President Bush is also an influence in the Republican primary race in New Hampshire. Forty-two percent of potential Republican primary voters say their opinion of the former President is important in deciding their vote in the upcoming primary, while 58 percent say it is unimportant. Among those who say their opinion of father Bush matters, George W. receives 45 percent of the vote to only 31 percent for McCain.

While McCain has been taking hits in the media lately for his regulatory efforts on behalf of campaign contributors, primary voters do not seem to hold it against him. 34 percent of potential Republican primary voters say McCain has never made or changed a policy decision as a result of a campaign contribution, while only 20 percent say he has, and 46 percent don't know. Bush performs a little less well: 26 percent of potential Republican primary voters think Bush has ever let a contribution affect a policy decision, while 24 percent think he has and half don't know.

KEEP IT SLOW

Overall, despite the fact many find outsiders appealing, New Hampshire primary voters do not want radical change in government policies. Over two-thirds of potential primary voters would prefer a President who takes a step-by-step approach to solving problems over the long-term, rather than a President who offers bold, major proposals to try to solve problems quickly preferred by only 25 percent.

All of the four leading candidates are seen as likely to pursue a step-by-step approach, although McCain and Bradley are seen as somewhat more likely to pursue bold, major proposals.

Thirty-three percent of potential Republican voters think that McCain would offer bold, major proposals as president, while 44 percent think he would take a step-by-step approach. Bush is seen as more cautious: only 25 percent think he would pursue major changes, while 50 percent think he would go step-by-step.

A similar difference exists in the Democratic race. Two-thirds of likely Democratic voters think Gore would follow a step-by-step approach, compared to 47 percent who think Bradley would.

THE ISSUES

New Hampshire residents' top concerns are reflected in the candidates' policy debates. Seventeen percent of New Hampshire residents cite health care as the country's biggest problem, while 14 percent cite Social Security and Medicare, and another 12 percent cite taxes. But while all three issues are top for all residents, priorities divide along party lines: registered Democrats place top priority on health care, while Republicans are more concerned about taxes.

Despite the fact that the Democratic candidates have been sparring over health care for the past few months, neither candidate is given an edge on the issue by voters. When asked whose health care plan they prefer, potential Democratic primary voters divide over Gore and Bradley's plans. Twenty-one percent of Democratic primary voters prefer Gore's plan, while 16 percent prefer Bradley's, and 40 percent prefer neither plan over the other at this time.

While taxes top Social Security on the list of New Hampshire Republicans' concerns, when forced to choose between the two, potential Republican primary voters choose Social Security. Sixty-five percent of likely Republican primary voters would rather use the projected budget surplus to strengthen Social Security, while 27 percent would prefer it go towards a tax cut.

Part of McCain's electoral strength may arise from this trade-off: among those Republican primary voters who would prefer to strengthen Social Security, McCain receives 44 percent of the primary vote to Bush's 28 percet and Forbes' 9 percent; among those who would prefer a tax cut, Bush receives 41 percent of the primary vote, McCain receives 25 percent. Steve Forbes, who has made a priority of tax issues, receives only 19 percent.

Forbes' focus on a flat-tax system gives him little traction among likely Republican primary voters. A majority prefer a graduated system: 57 percent of Republican primary voters in New Hampshire prefer a graduated tax system, while 39 percent prefer a flat tax. In addition, even among voters who prefer a flat tax system Forbes remains in third place in the voting with 18 percent to 29 percent for Bush and 33 percent for McCain.

This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1,743 adults in New Hampshire, interviewed by telephone January 15-17, 2000. The sample includes 696 potential Republican primary voters (including 273 unaffiliated) and 565 potential Democratic primary voters (including 218 unaffiliated). Unaffiliated (undeclared or independent) voters are registered voers who are not registered in one of the two major parties. The error due to sampling could be plus or minus two percentage points based on the entire sample, plus or minus four points for each potential primary vote sample, and plus or minus five points for definite voters in each primary. For full question wording and poll findings, please contact the CBS Election and Survey Unit at 212-975-5554.