Donald Trump gets a small boost in support across the battleground states coming out of his convention: he is at 42 percent support now, up from 40 percent heading in, and it now pushes him slightly ahead of Hillary Clinton, who remains unchanged at 41 percent.
Republicans in the battleground states liked what they saw, much more so than independents, as the continued closeness of the contest and this limited movement - even after a convention - is another example of how staunch partisanship is both defining and constraining this race. Voters in this study were re-interviewed and had also registered their preferences before the convention. The vote change - such as it is - comes almost entirely from a handful of those voters who were undecided or unsure last week, and not from a conversion of voters who were previously with Clinton; Clinton's support remains the same despite so much of the convention's rhetorical focus on her and the Democrats.
Asked their feelings about what they saw from Trump at the convention, voters voiced a mix of reactions, also breaking sharply on partisan lines, but the overall picture suggests Trump did help shore up support from his base of Republicans, even if he hasn't yet drawn very many new voters beyond it. Most Republicans (55 percent) said Trump's message made them feel hopeful and four in ten Republicans said it made them feel enthusiastic.
Independents' responses weren't as positive, with 32 percent saying they felt hopeful and 25 percent with enthusiasm. Meanwhile, 63 percent of Democrats said what they saw and heard from Trump made them feel scared, echoing similar sentiments that many had expressed during the primary season. Thirty-two percent of independents also said they felt scared, equalling the number who said hopeful, and 29 percent of independents said it made them pessimistic.
Voters were also very evenly split on how the proceedings changed their views of Trump, regardless of current vote. Just as many said it had made them more positive about him as said it had made them more negative toward him. Most Republicans came away feeling at least somewhat more positive, including 46 percent who say they became "much" more positive, and 45 percent of conservatives who did. But only 23 percent of independents, and 16 percent of moderates, were similarly much more positive. As was the case last week, likely voters were interviewed across the eleven key states most likely to decide the election.
On the Democratic side, the study began before the official announcement of Tim Kane as Hillary Clinton's vice presidential pick, but it did ask voters how they felt about Kaine, as well as other names who'd reportedly been considered. By four to one, Democrats expressed at least satisfaction or enthusiasm with the idea of a Kaine pick, though many were as yet unsure. Asked how they would feel about Elizabeth Warren, Democrats were more likely to express enthusiasm, though Warren was also better known. Liberals specifically, like Democrats, were on balance satisfied with the idea of a Kaine pick.