Out With The Old

Analysis of "Survivor:All Stars" Episode 2 by columnist Greg Feltes of CBS station WBBM in Chicago.

First off, if you haven't checked out the Survivor Insider footage, you definitely should do so. It's free on cbs.com and every week you get exclusive clips of video that didn't appear in the most recent episode.

Particularly enlightening revelations from those clips:

  • Richard Hatch does indeed have a strategy, albeit a bizarre one. He is intentionally isolating himself and not helping with chores, so he can get a better feel for the game. The original sole survivor feels that he can quickly smooth things over if he has to, so he's not too worried about appearing lazy. He is biding his time until he gets a situation that he can take advantage of.
  • Hatch has had brief discussions with Colby about an alliance. However, Colby hopes to stay neutral for as long as possible and does not wish to commit to an alliance yet. Hatch hopes to take advantage of this when the time comes by portraying Colby as indecisive and as someone who is a physical threat that is under the radar.
  • Amazon Rob's clip is really telling about the state of the Chapera. Apparently, Boston Rob has really strengthened his position as leader and is actually becoming romantically involved with Amber. Amazon Rob wants to get rid of Amber, but he feels that he has no shot of accomplishing that with Boston Rob as leader.
  • Like Hatch, Cesternino ( aka Amazon Rob) is still trying to figure out how he is going to play the game. He has established a tentative alliance with Alicia, but is all too willing to break it. This is a critical point for him because he has to decide whether to play aggressively and go after Amber right now or fly under the radar for and make his move later.

Again, I'd really suggest checking it out if only to hear Rudy talk about Hatch once last time.

All right, let's do some analysis…

Why Rudy is gone:

  1. He is 75 years old. A young player might have been given a break if they had a bad ankle, but Rudy isn't even young at heart anymore. His age gave the perfect justification to Jenna and Jerri, who were probably equally as responsible for the loss in the immunity challenge.
  2. Rupert and Rudy made the wrong choice last episode. I understand the anti-winner sentiment and I get that they all will be eventually voted out. However, there was no need to rush the process and it might actually be beneficial to keep winners around, so they become targets when the merge occurs. Plus, Ethan and Tina make for much more stable alliance mates than Jerri and Jenna, who have already shown their aggressiveness and determination to win.

Tribe Analysis:

Saboga: It goes without saying, but they can not afford to lose the next immunity challenge. Obviously, it would put them at an insurmountable numbers disadvantage and kill whatever morale they have left. By eliminating Rudy, Jenna and Jerri really showed that they are in it to win it by making a backstab only six days into the game. I didn't like it, but they made the right move. Ethan might be acting like a whiny little girl, but he is a better challenge competitor than Rudy who already was fading.

The preview for next week makes it look as if Rupert and Jerri will be going at it over Rudy's dismissal, but I think that will turn out to be much ado about nothing. The fact is that they need each other now more than ever. Jerri needs Rupert giving 100 percent at the next challenge and Rupert needs Jerri to readmit him to the core alliance. Still, I don't believe it matters anyway. Things have a way of evening out in this game and I don't see them going to tribal council next time.

If they did, I see Rupert making nice with the gruesome twosome and voting Ethan out.

Mogo Mogo: Hatch has to pull it together and formulate a cohesive strategy or he just might be done when Mogo Mogo loses. Contrary to what he thinks, it will not be an easy task for Richard to smooth things over quickly, especially if his tribemates like fellow winner Jenna better than him. I think his best bet might be to align with the three girls and vote against Colby, who some already consider a winner, given his success in season two.

Other than speculation over Richard, we haven't really seen a lot of the strategic goings on at camp Mogo Mogo. It is known that Lex and Kathy had a pretty good relationship before the game and it seems like Shii Ann has formed a bond with Jenna.

Still, if they lose at the next IC, a winner likely be targeted. The optimist in me leaves me to believe that Richard will somehow survive and Jenna will be gone. I just don't see the King going down so soon.

Chapera: It appears to be the tribe to beat. Chapera has been dominant at the immunity challenges and have a very competent leader in Boston Rob. None of the other tribes have established such a hierarchy and I believe it's to their detriment.

From Amazon Rob's Survivor Insider clips, we know a little bit about the makeup of Chapera. Rob M. is the leader and Amber is his comely assistant. Rob C. will work with Alicia if nothing better comes along. Big Tom is a rock and popular with everybody.

It appears Sue is the odd woman out in this situation. You might have noticed that she didn't have a confessional during this past episode, which could indicate the producers don't want to waste screen time on someone who will not be sticking around for long.

Sue's isolation could provide a one-time-only opportunity for Amazon Rob. It is clear that Rob M. and Amber are an unbreakable pair who can pick and chose whom they include in their alliance. Under-the-radar is not Amazon Rob's style. If I were he, I'd take Sue and Alicia and go after Amber, which would be, at the very least, a tie situation with the fate of the tribe at stake.

However, no one likes to rock the boat this early on, which leads me to believe that Sue will be the first Chapera to go.

Prediction for Next Episode

A shark will be bitten by Richard (not vice versa) and Jenna or Susan will be headed to the loser lodge.

Comments? Questions? Snide remarks? Send them to survivorcolumn@hotmail.com