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Oscar Insiders: 'Brokeback' Wins

Jess Cagle
CBS/The Early Show
This Sunday night, Hollywood hands out its highest honors at the 78th Annual Academy Awards.

And in these final days before the big show, America is well into its annual tradition: predicting the winners.

The Early Show turned to entertainment insider Jess Cagle, People magazine's editor at large, and Jessica Shaw, senior editor for Entertainment Weekly.

Each gave opinions on who will win in the major categories, and who should win.

[Meanwhile, for a behind-the-scenes view of covering Oscar, see co-anchor Harry Smith's comments on The Public Eye, the CBSNews.com blog.]

The nominees

Best Picture
"Brokeback Mountain"
"Crash"
"Capote"
"Good Night, and Good Luck"
"Munich"

Best Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"
Terrence Howard, "Hustle & Flow"
Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"
Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"
David Strathairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck"


Best Actress
Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"
Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"
Keira Knightley, "Pride & Prejudice"
Charlize Theron, "North Country"
Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line"

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Dillon, "Crash"
George Clooney, "Syriana"
Paul Giamatti, "Cinderella Man"
Jake Gyllenhaal, "Brokeback Mountain"
William Hurt, "A History Of Violence"

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, "Junebug"
Catherine Keener, "Capote"
Frances McDormand, "North Country"
Rachel Weisz, "The Constant Gardener"
Michelle Williams, "Brokeback Mountain"

Best Director
George Clooney, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
Paul Haggis, "Crash"
Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"
Bennett Miller, "Capote"
Steven Spielberg, "Munich"

Jess Cagle's Predictions

Best Picture
Who Will Win: "Brokeback Mountain." Even though "Crash" is considered strong competition, Hollywood's enthusiasm for "Brokeback" is apparent from the pre-Oscar awards from critics and guilds. Also, it has the most nominations overall. Among the contenders, it has also made the most at the box office, which often seems to sway Academy opinions. And it has a substantial running time (It's the second longest contender, after "Munich") and the academy usually picks long movies over shorter ones. (If there is an upset, Ang Lee will still get the directing trophy for "Brokeback.")

Who Should Win: "Brokeback Mountain." It's the best movie of the year — daring, original, and one of the most artfully rendered love stories ever put on film.