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One Ryan Down, One More To Go

Analysis of "Survivor: Pearl Islands" episode two by CBS station WBBM in Chicago's "Survivor" columnist Greg Feltes.

Ryan Shoulders came into the game without a chance and it was not just his lack of physical prowess that did him in. Ryan simply did not have the social skills to fit in at the cool kids' table at Team Morgan.

Instead, he chose to gravitate toward Lillian because he was comfortable with her and could trust her. However, you never align yourself with the older people of the tribe if it can be helped. Sooner or later, those people will be voted off as the team gets desperate after losing immunity challenges and you will be stuck with no allies. Even more unfortunate for Ryan is that Lillian proved physically superior to him.

Morgan finally made a smart move in keeping Osten around. Osten said it himself. Osten at his weakest is better than Ryan at his strongest. That said, I hate players who threaten to quit because they completely take their great opportunity for granted. What amplifies that feeling is that you get the idea that Osten hasn't learned anything from previous "Survivor"s. Things can change completely in the course of three days. There could be a merge. Tribes could be broken up. There could be a reward challenge where clothing is a prize. All are possibilities, but they won't help you if you quit before they occur.

Now for a quick look at the tribal situations:

Morgan: There is no way Lillian survives the next vote. Book it. She's Edie Falco at the Emmys. It's guaranteed to happen.

Drake: Again without the pressure of a vote, it's still murky on who is aligning with whom. This week Rupert further secured his position as a critical part of the tribe. He's safe for the foreseeable future. Christa, Michelle and Trish also haven't stepped on any toes. Shawn is hurting because of his idiocy in losing the spear tip and then not finding it. He also hangs out with Burton too much, which isolates both of them from the group. It's dangerous to speculate based on previews, but Sandra and Jon look to have a very big fight next week. Again, rocking the boat is a quick ticket off the island. If that conflict causes waves, Jon is gone because Sandra is much more respected and trusted than him.

Predictions: Call it a hunch, but I bet that Morgan pulls it together for an immunity win next week. They are due and I think they will finally awaken to the fact that they must win this next one. Plus, it has proven exceedingly difficult for any tribe to win three immunity challenges in a row in past editions of Survivor.

Who I want to win update: I am firmly in Rupert's corner now. He's played a good game and has provided some choice moments. I haven't fallen in love with anybody as a second choice yet. However, I hope Drake continues to pound Morgan because I love a good blowout.

By Greg Feltes
By Greg Feltes