N.H. Primary By The Numbers

Monika McDermott and Cheryl Arnedt of the CBS News Election and Survey Unit analyze the outcome of the New Hampshire primary using information from the CBS News exit poll

THE REPUBLICANS

John McCain's convincing victory over Texas Governor George W. Bush was due in part to his strong support among registered independents. In addition, despite recent polls to the contrary, voters in New Hampshire were divided over which candidate could beat the Democratic nominee in the general election - 46 percent said Bush would, but 43 percent said McCain would, and 7 percent chose Forbes.

McCAIN'S STRENGTHS

As expected, independent support went largely to McCain. Independent voters, who made up nearly a third of the Republican primary electorate, broke for McCain 61 percent to only 19 percent for Bush. Even among registered Republicans, McCain had an eight point lead over the Texas Governor.

Veterans also backed McCain, as predicted. Half of those who have served in the military backed McCain. In fact, McCain's powerful victory extended to most demographic groups. And he even won strongly among women.

McCain won among liberal and moderate voters, and split the vote evenly with Bush among conservative voters. Among strong conservatives, however, McCain trailed Bush, who received 34 percent. McCain, Steve Forbes and Alan Keyes each received about 20 percent of the strong conservative vote,.

Image worked to McCain's advantage as well:

• Nearly half of Republican primary voters said McCain is more likely than Bush to say what he believes rather than what he thinks people want to hear. Only 17 percent said Bush was more likely to give it to them straight.
• 43 percent of McCain voters cited standing up for what he believes as the top candidate characteristic influencing their vote. Another 22 percent said they were looking for a strong leader. In contrast, Bush voters were most influenced by his strong leadership qualities (21 percent) and their desire for a candidate who could win in November (18 percent).

ISSUES THAT MATTERED

Far and away the most important issue to New Hampshire Republican primary voters was moral values. Among seven issues offered to voters in the CBS News exit poll, 27 percent said moral values was the most important issue influencing their vote. Taxes came in second (18 percent), and world affairs and Social Security trailed at 12 percent apiece.

Among those who said that moral values was the most important issue, McCain won 46 percent to 33 percent for Bush and 15 percent for Alan Keyes. Steve Forbes performed poorly among this group, but did win with a 35 percent plurality among those voters who put taxes first on their list of issues.

While campaign financing did not come up as a big issue with Republican primary voters, they did not buy the Bush campaign's argument that reform could hurt the plitical process. By 79 percent to 13 percent voters said campaign finance reform would help the political process.

Recent problems McCain was having on the issue of abortion appear to have done him little harm. Just over half of New Hampshire Republican primary voters prefer that abortion remain legal in most, if not all cases, and among these voters McCain won handily. Only among the most ardent pro-life voters (12 percent of the electorate) did Bush best McCain 33 percent to 22 percent. Keyes received 23 percent of the vote from pro-life voters, virtually tying McCain for second place.

New Hampshire voters showed their independence on the issues of Social Security and religion. Republican primary voters divided over whether cutting taxes or strengthening Social Security should be a higher priority for the next President (46 percent said each). And by 55 percent to 41 percent primary voters said that candidates should keep their personal religious beliefs to themselves rather than make them public.

While previous polls had shown that Bush was benefiting from his father's positive image, voters today said that Bush being the son of a former President had little effect on their vote. 74 percent of voters said that Bush's lineage was unimportant in deciding their vote. In contrast, McCain's military record was important to voters: 63 percent said his military record was important to their vote, including 25 percent who said it was very important.

THE CAMPAIGN

A significant 83 percent of voters said they followed the Republican primary debates closely, including over a third who said they followed them very closely. In addition, 40 percent of Republican primary voters had the opportunity to see at least one candidate in person. Sixty percent did not.

In terms of the nature of the primary campaign, overwhelming numbers of voters thought that both front-runners McCain and Bush ran positive campaigns. Four in ten voters, however, thought Forbes spent time unfairly attacking others.

THE DEMOCRATS

In a race that was much closer than many had predicted, Gore won narrowly against Bradley. Notwithstanding Bradley's impressive showing, the electability of Gore and his experience in office proved to be key strengths for the vice president.

GORE'S ELECTABILITY

Nearly two-thirds of New Hampshire primary voters believed Gore would be more likely than Bradley to beat the Republican presidential nominee in November. Even 26 percent of Bradley supporters believed this.

Gore's position as a sitting vice president clearly counted with New Hampshire voters. As in Iowa, Gore's experience (picked by 37 percent) and the fact that he is a strong and decisive leader (chosen by 23 percent) were the top two qualities cited by Gore voters as the main factors that mattered in deciding how they voted. His debate experience also seems to have worked in his favor. Among the nearly third of New Hampshire voters who sid they followed the debates very closely, Gore captured 60 percent, compared with 40 percent who voted for Bradley.

WHY GORE'S WIN WAS SO NARROW

The wide gender gap that the vice president enjoyed in Iowa was less evident among New Hampshire voters. Women, who made up the majority of primary voters, went for Gore over Bradley by 53 percent to 47 percent. Gore won by a similar margin among older voters (age 65 and over) in New Hampshire, compared with his more than three to one win among this group in Iowa.

Union voters, who made up a third of caucus-goers in Iowa, constituted around a quarter of voters in New Hampshire. This core Democratic group went overwhelmingly for Gore in both states, but their reduced numbers in New Hampshire meant diminished vote support for Gore.

BRADLEY'S STRONG SHOWING

Perennially important independent voters threw their support in large numbers to Bradley. Independents, who made up 30 percent of New Hampshire Democratic primary voters, voted for Bradley over Gore by 57 percent to 42 percent.

Younger voters (those 18 to 29 years old) went decisively for Bradley as well. Fifty-six percent of these young voters chose Bradley; 43 percent chose Gore.

Last-minute campaigning and television advertising had a definite impact on the race. Late-deciders - those voters who decided which candidate to support on their way to the polls today or over the last three days - went 59 percent to 41 percent for Bradley.

Bradley, who outspent Gore in the Granite State, seems to have gotten a bigger payoff for his television ads. Nearly half of Bradley voters said that his TV ads helped them decide how to vote, compared with a third of Gore voters who said this.

The number one quality for Bradley voters was that he stands up for what he believes, followed by the fact that he is not a typical politician. And by 74 percent to 15 percent, Democratic primary voters overall said the next President should try new ways, rather than following familiar approaches, in solving the country's problems. A majority of those who said the next President should try new ways voted for Bradley.

THE CLINTON FACTOR

While the so-called "Clinton factor" is difficult to gauge in a Democratic primary, Bradley was the beneficiary of New Hampshire voters critical of President Clinton. Overall, the president's job approval rating is extremely high: 81 percent approve of the way he's handling his job. But New Hampshire Democratic primary voters are more critical of Mr. Clinton the person. By 54 percent to 42 percent, voters have an unfavorable opinion of Mr. Clinton as a person. And for the majority who held negative opinions of Mr. Clinton, 58 percent voted for Bradley. Also, the minority of voters who disapprove of the way Mr. Clinton is handling his job voted for Bradley over Gore by a 3-1 margin.

Voters were also asked how important Gore's ties to Mr. Clinton were in deciding how t vote. Nineteen percent described Gore's Clinton ties as very important, but not for the better: More than half of voters who said this voted for Bradley, not Gore.

MOOD OF THE ELECTORATE

The outlook of Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire was overwhelmingly optimistic on several economic fronts:

• Two-thirds said their family's financial situation is better today than it was four years ago.
• More than nine in 10 Democratic primary voters described the condition of New Hampshire's economy as good.
• By 77 percent to 21 percent, voters thought the average American's standard of living will rise, not fall, over the next decade.

IMPORTANT ISSUES

The issues foremost in the minds of Democratic voters were education and health care (cited by 22 percent and 20 percent, respectively). Social Security/Medicare tied for third with the economy - both at 14 percent. While both candidates have been sparring over their respective health care plans, nearly a third of Democratic primary voters thought the two candidates' plans were about the same.

METHODOLOGY

The CBS News exit poll was conducted among 2,240 Republicans and 1,730 Democrats as they left the polls. The margin of error could be plus or minus 2 percentage points for the Republican sample, and 3 points for the Democrats.