Dotty Lynch, Douglas Kiker, Beth Lester and Clothilde Ewing of the CBS News Political Unit have the latest on the New Hampshire primary and other political news.
* Poll Watch: A Statistical Tie or a Blowout?
* Candidates Look to Feb. 3 and Beyond
* McCain Returns To New Hampshire To Praise Bush, Not Bury Him
* Dean Gets Advice from Blogging Outsiders
Poll Watch: Depending on which poll you believe, John Kerry is either heading for a convincing victory in New Hampshire or he's in a dead heat with a revitalized Howard Dean. In the two-day tracking polls, Boston Globe/WBZ-TV (conducted Jan. 24-Jan. 25; margin of error 5 percent) shows Kerry with a 20-point lead and CNN/USA Today/Gallup (conducted Jan. 24-Jan. 25; margin of error 3 percent) has Kerry with an 11-point lead. Not to be outdone, today's 7 News/Suffolk University (conducted Jan. 24-Jan. 25; margin of error 4.9 percent) poll shows Kerry with a "blowout" 21-point lead. And one of the three-day polls, from American Research Group (conducted Jan. 23-Jan. 25; margin of error 4 percent), has Kerry leading Dean by 18 points.
But lest you expect a Granite State coronation for Kerry, a Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll (conducted Jan. 23-Jan. 25; margin of error 4.1 percent) shows Kerry and Dean in a statistical tie, with the senator leading the former governor by just three points. Although it is only one of many polls released Monday, the Zogby poll was the first to predict Kerry's rise in Iowa. Could it be right again?
Not to be outdone for confusion, the third-place race is all over the place, as well. As National Journal's Wake Up Call reports, the nine polls released on Sunday and Monday find "John Edwards nabbing third place in four polls, Wesley Clark placing third in four polls, and the two tied for third in another."
Good luck trying to guess who prevails Tuesday night.
Boston Globe/WBZ-TV 1/24-25 (400 interviews)
7 News/Suffolk University 1/24-25 (400 interviews)
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 1/24-25 (600 interviews)
American Research Group 1/23-25 (624 interviews)
Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby 1/23-25 (600 interviews)
...And Don't Forget About Feb. 3 And Beyond Even though New Hampshire is the story for now, the Democratic presidential campaigns must soon turn their attention to the primaries on Feb. 3 and afterwards. New polls from Arizona, Oklahoma and South Carolina show the races there have been impacted by the results from Iowa. As the campaigns go down to the wire in the Granite State, here are some numbers to look forward to: a poll from the Arizona Republic (conducted Jan. 21-Jan. 22; margin of error 4.3 percent) shows Kerry leading the pack, but with 34 percent of voters undecided. The American Research Group poll (conducted Jan. 23-Jan. 25; margin of error 4 percent) also shows Kerry up by 3 points and Edwards besting Dean for third.
As pollster Dick Bennett writes, since December, "Kerry has gained 18 percentage points in ballot preference… Edwards has gained 14…Clark has gained 6… Dean has lost 16 percentage points." A similar trend is evident in Oklahoma: the American Research Group poll (conducted Jan. 23-Jan. 25; margin of error 4 percent) shows Clark leading in OK, but Edwards and Kerry both gaining 15 points since December. In South Carolina, ARG shows Edwards leading Kerry by four, with Dean dropping into fifth.
And in Michigan, a state that Dean's team believes he should do well in, a new EPIC/MCA poll (conducted Jan. 20-25; margin of error 5 percent) also shows bad news for Dean. Although Dean led there in December, Kerry now has a 23-point lead, 37 to Dean's 14; Clark and Edwards are tied for third with 10 points.
Arizona Republic 1/21-22 (528 interviews)
ARG – Arizona 1/23-25 (600 interviews)
ARG – Oklahoma 1/23-25 (600 interviews)
ARG – South Carolina 1/23-25 (600 interviews)
EPIC/MCA 1/20-25 (400 interviews)
Candidates Staying Power: With one day to go until the New Hampshire primary, campaign strategists are preparing for a long, hard march through the next five weeks of primaries and caucuses, reports The New York Times. After New Hampshire, the fight for the Democratic nomination becomes more of a national race, taking candidates to seven states, including South Carolina and Arizona, on Feb. 3; and California and New York on March 2, when voters in 10 states will cast their votes.
A funny thing happened to Dean's plan to shut the process down by winning Iowa and New Hampshire and blasting through Feb. 3. Now, campaign strategists say they are readying themselves for a contest that may not be resolved until March 2, if then.
"The only way this was a sprint for us was if we won Iowa and New Hampshire," said Steve McMahon, media consultant to Dean. "This is a marathon now, and we intend to run the whole way. We trained for it, and we're ready for it."
Mary Beth Cahill, John Kerry's campaign manager, said, "We have said all along that for us, this is a delegate race, and we're going to try to accumulate as many delegates as possible."
Though they won't admit it on the record, Kerry fans dream of taking over the Dean "quick kill" scenario. The Boston Globe writes about how important momentum will be in the following weeks, because the contenders will not have the money or the time to launch "full-scale" campaigns like they have in Iowa and New Hampshire. In addition, the pressure for candidates who haven't won anything by Feb. 3 will escalate quickly. "If you haven't won in one of the nine states in all the regions of our country, with all the different constituencies involved, then I think it's time to reassess your candidacy," DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe said on Sunday.
CBS News has learned that there are ongoing conversations between various non-Kerry campaigns about dividing up the turf in the Feb. 3 states, where campaigning is more expensive. Missouri, for example, has two big media markets in St Louis and Kansas City and several small ones in between. As vote-getting increases in cost, all the campaigns are facing major financial decisions.
Dates to Watch Feb. 3 – March 2:
Tuesday Feb. 3
Arizona Primary: 55 delegates
Delaware Primary: 15 delegates
Missouri Primary: 74 delegates
New Mexico DNC Party-run Primary: 26 delegates
North Dakota DNC Caucuses: 14 delegates
Oklahoma Primary: 40 delegates
South Carolina DNC Party-run Primary: 45 delegates
Saturday Feb. 7
Michigan DNC Party-run Primary: 128 delegates
Washington Caucuses: 76 delegates
Sunday Feb. 8
Maine Caucuses: 24 delegates
Tuesday Feb. 10
Tennessee DNC Primary: 69 delegates
Virginia DNC Primary: 82 delegates
Saturday Feb. 14
District of Columbia Caucuses: 16 delegates
Nevada DNC Caucuses: 24 delegates
Tuesday Feb. 17
Wisconsin Primary: 72 delegates
Tuesday Feb. 24
Hawaii DNC Caucuses: 20 delegates
Idaho DNC Caucuses: 18 delegates
Utah DNC Party-run Primary: 23 delegates
Tuesday March 2
California Primary: 370 delegates
Connecticut Primary: 49 delegates
Georgia Primary: 86 delegates
Maryland Primary: 69 delegates
Massachusetts Primary: 93 delegates
Minnesota Caucuses: 72 delegates
New York Primary: 236 delegates
Ohio Primary: 140 delegates
Rhode Island Primary: 21 delegates
Vermont Primary: 15 delegates
McCain Returns To New Hampshire: Four years ago, John McCain shocked the political world with his 19-point win over George W. Bush in the New Hampshire GOP primary. Although McCain dropped out of the race just over a month later, he remains a popular figure in the Granite State – particularly among New Hampshire's much-coveted and little-understood Independent voters – and almost every Democratic candidate has tried to woo devotees of the "Straight Talk Express."
Alas, for candidates like Joe Lieberman, who touted his McCain-esque credentials in a recent ad here, McCain is in New Hampshire on Monday campaigning not for a Democrat but for his former rival, President Bush. McCain will appear at one event, a rally at the City Hall Auditorium in Nashua and he'll resurrect his Straight Talk Express bus for the ride there.
A poll from Boston Globe/WBZ-TV shows that New Hampshire Independents who voted for McCain will make up a significant chunk – 10 percent – of the Democratic primary electorate on Tuesday. The survey, taken between Thursday and Sunday, found the breakdown of that group to be 31 percent for Kerry, 19 percent for Edwards, 14 percent for Dean and 12 percent for Clark. Lieberman's ad campaign doesn't seem to have worked: he is getting only 6 percent from these voters.
And, perhaps explaining the importance Bush-Cheney has placed on distracting voters from Tuesday's Democratic primary, Newsday reports: "For Republicans, New Hampshire's real importance is not so much the primary as the fall general election. Bush narrowly won this state's four electoral votes in 2000 by 1 percent; losing the state would have guaranteed an Al Gore victory regardless of what occurred in Florida, and could theoretically make the difference in November."
McCain's quick visit comes on the heels of two other popular Bush-Cheney surrogates who visited New Hampshire over the weekend, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and New York Gov. George Pataki. On Saturday, Giuliani visited with firefighters and emergency medical technicians (not that anyone could be accused of politicizing 9/11 or anything) before attending a rally in Manchester, Newsday reports. Pataki was in the state on Sunday, possibly scouting it out for 2008.
Other Bush-Cheney surrogate events include a stop by Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who campaigns in Portsmouth on Tuesday where he'll lunch with Rockingham County Women Voters (and do plenty of interviews). Also attending the rally in Nashua with McCain will be former Montana governor and Bush-Cheney Campaign Chairman Marc Racicot. President Bush's sister, Doro Bush Koch, campaigned throughout the state on Sunday.
Unsolicited Advice: It has been a tough week for Howard Dean. Not only did he come in third in Iowa, but he also became fodder for late-night comedians and cable TV stations for a concession speech that even he conceded was not "presidential."
But what he probably didn't bank on was a stream of suggestions from supporters on his campaign blog, reports The Washington Post. "Ask yourself 'If I was selecting a candidate, how would I want that person to speak to me?'" Noelle wrote on the candidate's Web site. "The answer is probably not 'like [pro-wrestling promoter] Vince McMahon.' Be a breath of fresh air, not the blast of a flamethrower."
And this, from Robert Mann, who suggested Dean might benefit from a few sessions with a professional voice coach: "You have a splendid voice for public speaking and are a highly effective speaker but -- like many experienced political figures -- you don't know how to use your voice effectively in all situations."
The bloggers, who congregate daily on Dean's Web site, have also chimed in on everything from the candidate's wardrobe (suggesting he stay away from brown suits and add fun ties to his wardrobe to show "We've got personality") to his sleeping habits (suggesting Dean get six to eight hours of rest a night because he doesn't do well when he is exhausted).
Mathew Gross, Dean's director of Internet communications, could not name any suggestions from the past week that have been used. But he said that "several gems" have been incorporated into Dean's playbook, such as having supporters write letters to undecided voters in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Quote of the Day: "He's such a good man. I don't know why he didn't catch on."-- Sen. Joe Lieberman's mother (Los Angeles Times).