Just about every poll released today shows a McCain surge. The Rasmussen track shows McCain up 48 percent to 47 percent, compared with 48 to 48 yesterday. The Gallup track shows McCain ahead 49 to 44, up from 48 to 45 yesterday. The Diageo/Hotline track showed a 44-to-44 tie, compared with a 6 percent lead for Obama in its most recent report. We haven't seen much in the way of state results yet, except that Anchorage-based Ivan Moore, who polls for Democrats but has worked for Republicans in the past, shows McCain-Palin way ahead, 54 percent to 35 percent, in Alaska, where his previous poll showed Obama trailing McCain by only 2.5 percent. "Obama had a real shot to score an upset in Alaska," the Britain-born Moore writes, "but that opportunity is categorically gone."
Bottom line: Obama was a little ahead going into the conventions. McCain is a little ahead coming out of the conventions. On to the debates!
By Michael Barone