Is Obama's Re-Election a Sure Bet?
Americans are increasingly unsure of President Obama's handling of the economy, a new CBS News poll released this morning shows -- but come 2012, unless there's another economic meltdown, that lack of confidence in the president will have zero impact on how people vote, one professor contends.
Mr. Obama's re-election is virtually guaranteed, according to a formula concocted by American University Professor Allan Lichtman. Little beyond a massive scandal directly tied to the president or a major military or foreign policy failure could change that, according to Lichtman's system, which he calls the "13 Keys."
"Nothing that a candidate has said or done during a campaign, when the public discounts everything as political, has changed his prospects at the polls," Lichtman says. "Debates, advertising, television appearances, news coverage and campaign strategies -- the usual grist for the punditry mills--count for virtually nothing on Election Day."
The "13 Keys" are 13 factors that will impact the outcome of the popular vote, according to Lichtman. If at least eight of those factors are "true" (such as Key No. 2, which states, "There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination"), the "Keys" predict the incumbent will win. Nine of the "Keys" are currently true for Mr. Obama.
Lichtman's system predicted George W. Bush's 2004 re-election as early as April 2003, Al Gore's popular vote victory in 2000, Bill Clinton's win in 1996, George Bush's defeat in 1992, and the outcome of the 1988 presidential election.
The "Keys" consider the state of the economy, but only broadly. For Mr. Obama, Key No. 5 is, for now, anticipated to be true: "The economy is not in recession during the election campaign." Key No. 6, however, does not favor Mr. Obama: "Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms."
None of the keys, meanwhile, account for the other crisis currently plaguing the nation: the Gulf oil spill. Lichtman explained that such a crisis would have to be directly tied to the president in order for it to affect his chances for re-election.
"I'm not saying the oil spill isn't significant, but it's not as if there's some big collusion between the Obama administration and BP," Lichtman told the Hotsheet. If that were the case, it would change Key No. 9 from "true" to "false": "The administration is untainted by major scandal."
In some cases, Lichtman is conservative in his estimates of the president's chances at re-election. For instance, he pegs Key No. 12 -- "The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero" -- as "false," even though many people characterize Mr. Obama as charismatic.
"I think the magic he had during the campaign seems to have disappeared once he entered the Washington bubble," he said.
On the other hand, Lichtman also declared Key No. 13 fase -- "The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero."
"I just don't see anyone on the Republican side who's another Ronald Reagan," he said. "There are candidates like Sarah Palin who excite a small segment of the population, but that's not what it means to be a charismatic candidate. John F. Kennedy, Ronald Reagan, had broad appeal, even to people who didn't necessarily agree with their ideologies."
