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Hispanic voter turnout in 2018 increased dramatically in six states, analysis finds

Hispanic voter turnout increased significantly in the 2018 midterms as compared to the 2014 election, according to a Univision analysis of turnout in California, Florida, Nevada, New Jersey, New York and Texas. Florida and Texas, which supported President Trump in 2016, are considered to be increasingly Democratic, in part because of the high number of Hispanic voters.

Although Hispanic turnout was at a record high in 2014, according to Pew Research Center, the turnout rate fell to 27 percent, the lowest rate ever recorded for Hispanic voters in a midterm. The analysis by Univision, based on 2018 certified voter data, suggests that Hispanic voter engagement was far higher in 2018, increasing during a midterm election in President Trump's first term, whereas the 2014 midterm elections took place during President Obama's second term.

Overall in 2018 Democrats said that Latino participation surged 174 percent, compared to 2014. In the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats targeted 111 GOP House congressional districts, 29 of which had at least a 10 percent Hispanic electorate. The Hispanic community now has its highest level of representation in the Capitol, with at least 42 members. 

The data gathered by Univision suggest that Hispanic voters could play a critical role in the 2020 elections. Here is a rundown of its key findings:

California

  • 2.8 million Hispanics voted in 2018, compared to 1.2 million in 2014
  • 53.1 percent of registered Hispanic voters turned out in 2018, compared to 30.5 percent in 2014
  • Hispanic voter turnout increased more than twice as much as non-Hispanic voters, increasing by 125 percent
  • 23 percent of the general election voters in 2018 were Hispanic

Florida

  • 1.4 million Hispanics voted in 2018, compared to 748,000 in 2014
  • 53.7 percent of registered Hispanic voters turned out in 2018, compared to 38.1 percent in 2014
  • Hispanic voter turnout increased more than two times as much as non-Hispanic voters, increasing by 81 percent
  • 17 percent of the general election voters in 2018 were Hispanic

Nevada

  • 145,000 Hispanics voted in 2018, compared to 53,000 in 2014
  • 54.5 percent of registered Hispanic voters turned out in 2018, compared to 30.7 percent in 2014
  • Hispanic voter turnout increased more than two times as much as non-Hispanic voters, increasing by 176 percent
  • 16 percent of the general election voters in 2018 were Hispanic
  • 2 in 5 new registered voters were Hispanic

New Jersey

  • 335,000 Hispanics voted in 2018, compared to 164,000 in 2014
  • 49.2 percent of registered Hispanic voters turned out in 2018, compared to 28.7 percent in 2014
  • Hispanic voter turnout increased around twice as much as non-Hispanic voters, increasing by 104 percent
  • 11 percent of the general election voters in 2018 were Hispanic
  • 1 in 3 new registered voters were Hispanic

New York

  • 620,000 Hispanics voted in 2018, compared to 280,000 in 2014
  • 42.3 percent of registered Hispanic voters turned out in 2018, compared to 22.0 percent in 2014
  • Hispanic voter turnout increased more than two times as much as non-Hispanic voters, increasing by 121 percent
  • 10 percent of the general election voters in 2018 were Hispanic
  • 1 in 5 new registered voters were Hispanic

Texas

  • 1.7 million Hispanics voted in 2018, compared to 725,000 in 2014
  • 46.9 percent of registered Hispanic voters turned out in 2018, compared to 24.4 percent in 2014
  • Hispanic voter turnout increased more than two times as much as non-Hispanic voters, increasing by 137 percent
  • 21 percent of the general election voters in 2018 were Hispanic
  • 2 in 5 new registered voters were Hispanic
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