GOP Guide To Election Night

Republican pollster Linda DiVall, one of the nation's top political analysts, has written this Election Night Guide for CBS News:

THE GENERIC BALLOT

In 1994, Republicans received 53 percent of the vote according to VNS exit polling data in their historic 52-seat gain. In 1996, GOPers received 50 percent of the vote in losing 8 seats. The GOP will retain the majority if they pull 50 percent on the generic ballot.

THE MAGIC NUMBER

If the GOP gains seven seats in the House that would place the Democrats at 199 - the lowest number of seats held by the Democrats since 1947 when they held a meager 188 seats. This decline would probably result in a number of senior Democrat incumbents making the decision to retire rather than opt for re-election in 2000 and be a part of a permanent minority.

5 GROUPS TO WATCH ON ELECTION NIGHT

Seniors: Republicans received 51 percent of the vote with seniors in both 1994 and 1996. American Viewpoint [DiVall's company] polling during September and October showed seniors only narrowly approving of Clinton's job performance (52 percent approval - 44 percent disapproval) and voting for the GOP on the generic ballot (44 percent - 37 percent).

In 1994, seniors comprised 27 percent of the electorate - if that increases and the GOP holds on to their margin on the generic ballot Republicans will gain seats.

Devout Right: For some reason, VNS has only asked people to define themselves as members of the religious right in the exit polling; our preference is a stricter definition of religiosity.

For example, in American Viewpoint's recent national poll, high-frequency church attendees (attend church at least once per week) disapproved of Clinton personally (65 percent - 24 percent) while showing only mediocre approval of his job performance (51 percent-47 percent).

However, when we examine a group classified as devout right (self-identified conservatives who attend church at least once per week), Clinton's job performance rating declined to 35 percent and his personal ratings were even worse at 17 percent.

So on election night, listen carefully to the vote performance of the white religious right. They were 14 percent of the electorate in 1994 and voted Republican at a healthy clip of 63 percent - 37 percent. Our mid-October poll showed the devout right voting Republican by a margin of 62 percent - 21 percent. If they exceed their turnout erformance of 1994 and just maintain the vote margin from our earlier poll it will be a good night for Republicans and some unexpected surprises will develop in rural districts.

White women: In 1996, the GOP received 50 percent of the vote with white women and I believe Republicans will match that or exceed it on Election Night. If that is the case, and Republicans continue to perform well with men, 48 percent - 32 percent with white men, the GOP will build on its majority.

Conservatives: In 1994, 36 percent of the electorate identified themselves as conservatives and only 17 percent as liberals. Conservatives voted Republican on the generic ballot (81 percent-19 percent) and I believe they are just as motivated to vote against Clinton now as they were then.

Suburbia: GOP vote performance declined significantly with suburban men and suburban women in 1996 from 1994. The GOP dropped 6 percent, falling from 62 percent with men to 56 percent; and falling from 53 percent to 47 percent with women. If Republicans boost their vote performance with the soccer moms to over 50 percent, they will win key suburban districts.

WHAT WOULD BE A GOOD NIGHT FOR THE GOP?

Polls will close first in Indiana and Kentucky. Democrats are expected to win the open Indiana U.S. Senate seat and the Kentucky Senate contest will go down to the wire.

If the GOP gains 1-2 House seats in Indiana and one in Kentucky, Republicans will be off to a good start. Other key Midwestern bellwethers are in Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan.

Republican gubernatorial candidates are expected to win these contests and Governor John Engler's strong performance in Michigan and Governor Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin could create some unexpected opportunities for Republicans at the congressional level (particularly in suburban Detroit). If the GOP comes out of these 4 states with a +4 or better gain in House seats, they can crack +10 overall for the evening.

The GOP will not lose many - if any - seats in the Northeast this year and one reason for that will be the strong performance of GOP Governors at the top of the ticket and not having Clinton at the top of the ticket as in 1996.

California is critical. Gray Davis is opening up a double-digit lead against Dan Lungren and Barbara Boxer is beginning to pull away from Matt Fong. If that holds, then a number of congressional races will be quite competitive.

The Republicans are counting on winning two open seats and are expected to lose one . If the GOP ends up coming out of California in a break even position then they will have held down opportunities for Democrats to make significant inroads on their majority status.

Finally, look to see how Republicans do in maintaining their hold on GOP open seats that have been classified as toss-ups all season (Wisconsin 1 and 2, Washington 3, Nevada 1, Missouri 4, Kentucky and Indiana 2). If they lose no more tha3 GOP open seats and 3 GOP incumbent seats, Republicans will have again thwarted Democrat opportunities.

In Senate contests, a number of states are currently too close to call: New York (D'Amato), North Carolina (Faircloth), Wisconsin (Feingold), Nevada (Reid) and Kentucky (Ford open seat).

Also, look for an upset. For example, Linda Smith, running against Patti Murray in Washington state, has never lost a race, is underfunded and has drawn the ire of the Republican establishment for her views on trade, campaign finance reform and other issues.

She just might be the wild card for the evening. And of course, everyone will be looking to see if the GOP gets to 60 seats for a filibuster-proof Senate.

Finally, look at VNS exit polling data on the question of whether your vote for Congress today was one to express support or opposition to Bill Clinton. If a plurality of Independents say they are voting to express opposition to Bill Clinton, the GOP will have a good night.

If this breaks even then it will be a district-by-district slugfest with the final outcome of the House in terms of actual number of seats held by each party not certain for a few days after Election Day.

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