GOP Battle Intensifies Ahead Of Debate
This column was written by Dean Barnett.
In these virtual pages, we've had some internal debate as to whether two candidates have viable paths to the Republican nomination or whether the correct figure is five. In truth, the actual figure right now is one. Only Mitt Romney has a plausible path to the nomination that doesn't rely on the unanticipated or the unprecedented. That means the other guys have to hope for something to change. And don't look now, but something is changing, potentially something big.
Mike Huckabee has done more than make it a five man race. Right now, he clearly has a better shot at the nomination than either John McCain or Fred Thompson. Indeed, leaving Thompson and McCain in there as serious contenders seems almost like a sentimental nod to two admirable old warhorses.
Ironically, Huckabee's ascension is an argument for McCain and Thompson still having a realistic shot. Six weeks ago, Huckabee was nowhere. Four weeks ago, I noted how Huckamania was running wild and that he had pulled within six points of Mitt Romney in the latest Rasmussen poll of Iowa. I also wondered at the time why Huckabee's emergence wasn't receiving more attention. Now he's a legitimate player. Rolling Stone even rewarded him with an idiotic profile that found several creative and often vulgar ways of calling him insane while insulting Christians everywhere.
My point isn't that Huckabee is going to be the nominee, but rather that he's having his moment. If he can fully capitalize on his moment, then he has a real chance.
And other guys will have their moments. The battle has obviously intensified, and more people will pay attention in the next month than have paid attention in the past eleven months combined. Things will likely change at an even faster rate than they already have. If you said two months ago that Mike Huckabee had a real shot at the nomination, Rolling Stone might have done a puerile hit piece on you.
So what should we look for at tonight's debate? First, let's acknowledge the importance of the engagement. None of the debates so far have produced a moment that moved the race. This one has the likelihood of changing that.
The first thing to look for is Mitt Romney's performance. It's a huge night for Romney. Romney has based his entire plan on trampolining from Iowa to New Hampshire and then on to the rest of the country. So far, he has carried out his strategy brilliantly. There was no inherent reason why he should have so easily left Rudy Giuliani in his rearview mirror in the early states. Likewise, you would have thought Fred would have given him a scare.
Huckabee is his latest, although not necessarily his last, challenge. Romney needs one of his good nights tonight, the kind of night that reminds everyone why he made it from obscure Mormon governor to frontrunner. Personally, I'd like to see him bare his fangs at Rudy and Huckabee. Romney's most impressive when he accentuates his tough side more than his sunny side. If Romney wants to win the nomination, he'll have to fight for it.
For Mike Huckabee, tonight will be a new experience. In the past debates, he's been an affable and charming presence, dropping one-liners and being the guy that everyone likes. Tonight, his opponents, specifically Romney and Thompson, will likely go after him. Huckabee's malefactors will have no shortage of material. How Huckabee handles himself tonight -- not only with regard to style, where he always excels, but also on substance -- will have a have a lot to do with determining his fate.
As for Thompson, I'm pretty sure I remain the last guy left who thinks he has a chance. But he needs a moment. A big one -- an "I paid for this microphone" or a "You're no JFK" moment that redefines him and sets his campaign on fire. It could happen. John Kerry wasn't actually burning up the campaign trail five weeks before Iowa. And in 1988, Paul Simon -- the late senator with the fleshy earlobes, not the pop singer -- was leading in Iowa at this juncture.
The big surprise is Giuliani's suddenly dire outlook. Rudy predicated his entire strategy on the hope that he could get drubbed in the first five states and then bounce back with a win Florida. A lot of us thought this assumption of a dramatic paradigm change was a foolish thread to hang a top tier presidential campaign on. Now the Giuliani campaign apparently agrees, and is desperately searching for some momentum in the early states. Giuliani needs Romney to drop a peg or perhaps several pegs. If Romney's mortally wounded after New Hampshire and Rudy has exceeded expectations, then he'll have an excellent chance of winning the nomination.
As for John McCain, he's the one guy in the top tier with the most remote chance. He has cultivated too many Republican enemies over the years, and, on some level, he had to know those chickens would come home to roost.
One final word about tonight's format. Those of us who never had much use for the YouTube debate have every reason to feel vindicated. This should be a serious night; instead, we have the potential for boundless idiocy. Look for a feisty handful of candidates (Romney, Giuliani and Huckabee) to ignore the questions and set their own agenda.
Today is the first day of the rest of Campaign '08's life. It should be interesting.
By Dean Barnett
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