Episode 3: That Sinking Feeling

Analysis of "Survivor: Pearl Islands" episode three by CBS station WBBM in Chicago's "Survivor" columnist Greg Feltes.

Well, episode three turned out to be a rather predictable outing. The losses continued to pile up on Team Morgan, which finds it self immunity challenged. It didn't help that it all came down to who had more strength: Rupert or Osten. Osten actually put up a pretty decent showing, but Rupert just had a little more strength in that large body of his.
Team Morgan then had to vote someone out. Despite the editing, I really don't believe the tribe really considered parting with Darrah. They already had jettisoned most of their youth and look where it got them. Plus, she's nice to look at.

Lillian getting voted out was inevitable, but the reasons for it were surprising. I was certain she was to become yet another victim of Survivor ageism, but she was voted out for all the right reasons. In the end, she wasn't able to participate in a high level at the challenges, which is what this tribe desperately needs right now. She also made the mistake of trying to save herself by doing too much and ended up losing a valuable resource for the tribe.

Lillian's main strategic error was acting rashly in the first episode. She had the opportunity to form an alliance with Nicole, Darrah and Skinny Ryan to vote Tijuana out. However, she deemed that scenario too risky and made a move to guarantee Ryan's safety. While it worked for the time being, that move doomed both Ryan and her because it isolated them into an alliance of two which means nothing in this game. When you are a weaker player, you have to be willing to take chances. She wasn't. She lost.

Now for a quick look at the tribal situations:

Morgan: Well, it was revealed that Andrew, Osten and Tijuana have an alliance, which is rather idiotic considering that a group of three people can't do anything if they are outnumbered post-merge. Anyway, Darrah is the next go unless Osten starts menstruating again.

Drake: You would expect that, with things going so well, everyone would be getting along nicely. However, this isn't the real world. It's Survivor. Petty arguments can turn into full on turf wars.

I think Jon is overestimating his place in the tribe when he initiates an intense confrontation with Sandra. Jon is annoying and physically weak. Those are two attributes you don't want to have in a game of this nature. Alliances still have not appeared on screen, but I am sure that they reside somewhere underneath Drake's happy exterior. I think Jon is the most vulnerable at this point.

Predictions: Last week, I prematurely said Morgan was due for a win in this past episode. It didn't happen, but I really think it will happen for Team Morgan at the next immunity challenge. The Official Survivor website features a preview for the next episode and among its entries is this tidbit: "Lubricated by whiskey, one Survivor creates a spectacle at a Tribal Council that is not to be missed." That doesn't sound like anyone on Morgan. However, that does sound just like something Jon or Rupert would do.

I think Drake is going to make their first trip to Tribal Council and vote Jon out. Look for Drake to find their treasure today.
By Greg Feltes