China, Taiwan Tensions Cool

There are no signs that China plans to attack Taiwan despite suggestions by some Chinese officials that military action may be possible following tentative Taiwanese moves toward independence, U.S. officials say.

"It's the United States government judgment that there aren't any extraordinary developments or signs that there is a mobilization on the PRC's (People's Republic of China) part," National Security Council spokesman David Leavy said Friday.

An all-out assault on Taiwan - which would cause the U.S. to come to its defense - is not considered likely. But Chinese representatives did suggest that they might try to take one of the smaller islands off Taiwan, just to show that they can.

Questions about China's intentions arose after Chinese officials sounded out U.S. specialists on how the Clinton administration might respond to military action against Taiwan.

"They're trying to assess what the costs and benefits would be of various courses of action against Taiwan," explains the Asia Pacific Policy Center's President Douglas Paal. "It's not really a campaign to come and warn us and intimidate us, but rather to determine what China can do at what price, vis-a-vis Taiwan."

Paal said he had been visited separately by Chinese military, government and academic representatives. He described the meetings as "much more intense" than interviews he regularly has with them.

Paal said China regards the current difficulties with Taiwan as being more serious than the situation in 1996 when Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui engaged in a campaign to gain greater international recognition for Taiwan.

He said the Chinese asked how the administration might respond to various possible situations but avoided describing specific scenarios that might suggest what they were considering.

The Chinese seemed to be carrying out a cost-benefit analysis, Paal said. "They're in the process of trying to make a decision, and they want to know what the outcome would be," he said.

James Mulvenon, a Chinese army specialist at the Rand research organization, said he also was approached by Chinese emissaries.

"They walk in with the same message," Mulvenon told The Washington Post. "'We're going to do something. We can't tell you what, but we're going to do something.' The goal for China would be to cause maximum impact in Taiwan without bringing in the United States."

Chinese Embassy spokesman Yu Shuning said he was unaware of any contacts by embassy officials with American experts on the Taiwan issue. He reiterated China's policy that it seeks peaceful reunification with Taiwan but does not rule out the use of force. To do so, he said, would make peaceful reunification impossible.

Taiwan's recent assertions that it should be treated as China's equal were probably Teng-hui's response to domestic political conditions rather than a deliberate provocation, reports CBS News Asia Bureau Chief Bruce Dunning.

With presidential elections next March, Lee came closer to declaring independence than any Taiwan official ever has. His KMT Party - dominated by nationalists who fled Communist China - has ruled Taiwan since 1912.

The U.S., which has joined a chorus of nations recognizing Beijing as the head of a single China, says it is up to the authorities on both sides to peacefully settle their differences.