China: Taiwan Independence = War

In unusually strong language, China ratcheted up the rhetoric against Taiwan in remarks published Wednesday and threatened that "the use of force may become unavoidable" if the island's leaders pursue independence.

The warning from Beijing came as Taiwan prepares to elect a new leader in March. President Chen Shui-bian, running for office again, has won over more voters since he came up with plans for a new constitution and a law on referendums that could conceivably lead to citizens voting on Taiwanese independence.

Wang Zaixi, a top mainland official who deals with the Taiwan issue, said curbing any efforts the island makes toward independence is the ultimate goal of the mainland, which will go to war if necessary.

"If the Taiwan authorities collude with all splittist forces to openly engage in pro-independence activities and challenge the mainland and the one-China principle, the use of force may become unavoidable," Wang was quoted as saying in China Daily, an English-language newspaper with a wide foreign audience.

Separatists will "pay a high cost if they think we will not use force," said Wang, vice minister of the Taiwan Affairs Office of China's Cabinet. "Taiwan independence means war."

Wang, who was speaking at a seminar on cross-straits relations, also tempered his remarks by adding that "the people of Taiwan are our brothers and sisters. We are not willing to meet at the battleground."

The Chinese Cabinet's Taiwan Affairs Office in Beijing had no immediate comment on Wednesday. The Mainland Affairs Council in Taipei was silent hours after Wang's remarks were published — a rare move from a normally responsive government.

Beijing has long threatened the use of force against Taiwan if it formally declares independence, but rarely so dramatically. The two sides split amid civil war in 1949, and Beijing insists that Taiwan belongs to China and must accept eventual unification.

But the language, the strongest in years, was unusual even in that context.

Yan Anlin, a professor with the Shanghai Institute of Taiwan, said China has been forced to underscore its position in recent weeks.

"China's message to Taiwan is very clear: Independence is intolerable," Yan said. "Both Chen Shui-bian and his party should know that Beijing had no other choice but to warn Taiwan's leaders because of Chen's recent remarks on independence."

In his speech at a seminar on cross-straits relations, Wang also condemned Chen's introduction of a new constitution and referendums as "extremely dangerous behaviors."

Chen is using campaign tools "to get himself re-elected and to push our Taiwanese compatriots to the brink of conflict with the motherland," Wang was quoted as saying by the official Xinhua News Agency.

When Chen ran for president in Taiwan in 2000, he was the candidate that Beijing disliked most because his opposition party had called for independence. Then-Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji warned Taiwan voters that a Chen victory could lead to war.

Bruce Jacobs, a professor of Asian languages and studies at Monash University in Victoria, Australia, said China risked doing itself more harm than good with its saber-rattling.

"Every time they've made threats, the people of Taiwan have voted against what China wants," he said.

He added: "What's happening in Taiwan is major change. The leaders and the people are exploring different options for a future. … They're moving away from a sense of China."

Last month, Beijing condemned Taiwan's leaders for flirting with independence but stopped short of threatening war.

The United States, which has relations with China but supplies arms to Taiwan, called for calm.

"The United States continues to urge Taiwan as well as the People's Republic of China to refrain from actions or statements that increase tensions or make dialogue more difficult to achieve," the U.S. Embassy in Beijing said in a statement. "The United States does not support Taiwan independence."

The United States closed its embassy in Taiwan in 1979 when it cut formal ties and recognized China. U.S. governments since then have supported a "one China" policy.

But Washington has also implicitly promised to help the island defend itself and is Taiwan's biggest arms supplier. According to the Federation of American Scientists, from 1990-2001 the Pentagon approved some $11.2 billion in U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.

The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act requires that the U.S. government "consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States."

In March 1996, when China and Taiwan reached a crisis point, President Clinton sent warships to the area to signal U.S. opposition to any attempt to cow Taiwan by force.

On Tuesday, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage said the U.S. government would deploy sufficient force in the Asia-Pacific area to lower tensions between China and Taiwan. He also offered assurances that President Bush's administration would provide Taiwan with "sufficient defense articles for her self-defense."

"We have full faith that the question of Taiwan will be resolved peacefully," Armitage said.