Army Chief: U.S. Could Be In Iraq 10 Years

The United States could have fighting forces in Iraq and Afghanistan for a decade, the top Army officer said, even though a signed agreement requires all U.S. forces to be out of Iraq by 2012.

Gen. George Casey, Army chief of staff, said Tuesday his planning envisions combat troops in Iraq and Afghanistan for a decade as part of a sustained U.S. commitment to fighting extremism and terrorism in the Middle East.

"Global trends are pushing in the wrong direction," Casey said. "They fundamentally will change how the Army works."

He spoke at an invitation-only briefing to a dozen journalists and policy analysts from Washington-based think-tanks.

Casey's calculations about force levels are related to his attempt to ease the brutal deployment calendar that he said would "bring the Army to its knees."

Casey would not specify how combat units would be divided between Iraq and Afghanistan. He said U.S. ground commander Gen. Ray Odierno is leading a study to determine how far U.S. forces could be cut back in Iraq and still be effective. Casey said his comments about the long war in Iraq were not meant to conflict with Obama administration policies.

President Barack Obama plans to bring U.S. combat forces home from Iraq in 2010, and the United States and Iraq have agreed that all U.S. forces would leave by 2012. Although several senior U.S. officials have suggested Iraq could request an extension, the legal agreement the two countries signed last year would have to be amended for any significant U.S. presence to remain.

As recently as February, Defense Secretary Robert Gates repeated U.S. commitment to the agreement worked out with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

"Under the Status of Forces Agreement with the Iraqi government, I intend to remove all U.S. troops from Iraq by the end of 2011," Gates said during an address at Camp Lejeune in North Carolina. "We will complete this transition to Iraqi responsibility, and we will bring our troops home with the honor that they have earned."

The United States has about 139,000 troops in Iraq and 52,000 in Afghanistan.

Mr. Obama campaigned on ending the Iraq war as quickly as possible and refocusing U.S. resources on what he called the more important fight in Afghanistan.

That will not mean a major influx of U.S. fighting forces on the model of the Iraq "surge," however. President Obama has agreed to send about 21,000 combat forces and trainers to Afghanistan this year. Combined with additional forces approved before President George W. Bush left office, the United States is expected to have about 68,000 troops in Afghanistan by the end of this year. That's about double the total at the end of 2008, but President Obama's top military and civilian advisers have indicated the total is unlikely to grow much beyond that.

Casey said several times that he wasn't the person making policy, but the military was preparing to have a fighting force deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan for years to come. Casey said his planning envisions 10 combat brigades plus command and support forces committed to the two wars.

When asked whether the Army had any measurement for knowing how big it should be, Casey responded, "How about the reality scenario?"

The reality scenario, he said, must take into account that "we're going to have 10 Army and Marine units deployed for a decade in Iraq and Afghanistan."

Casey stressed that the United States must be ready to take on sustained fights in the Middle East while meeting its other commitments.

Casey reiterated statements made by civilian and military leaders that the situation in Afghanistan would get worse before it gets better. "There's going to be a big fight in the south," he said.

Casey added that training of local police and military in Afghanistan was at least a couple years behind the pace in Iraq, and it would be months before the U.S. deployed enough trainers. There's a steeper curve before training could be effective in Afghanistan, requiring three to five years before Afghans could reach the "tipping point" of control.

He also said the U.S. had to be careful about what assets get deployed to Afghanistan. "Anything you put in there would be in there for a decade."

Casey as Army chief of staff is primarily responsible for assembling the manpower and determining assignments. He insisted the Army's 1.1-million size was sufficient even to handle the extended Mideast conflicts.

"We ought to build a pretty effective Army with 1.1 million strength," Casey said. He also noted that the Army's budget had grown to $220 billion from $68 billion before the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States.

He said the Army is two-thirds of the way through a complete overhaul from the Cold War-era force built around tanks and artillery to today's terrorist-driven realities. The Army has become more versatile and quicker by switching from division-led units to brigade-level command.

Casey said the Army has moved from 15-month battlefield deployments to 12 months. His goal is to move rotations by 2011 to one year in the battlefield and two years out for regular Army troops and one year in the battlefield and three years out for reserves. He called the current "one-year-in, one-year-out" cycle "unsustainable."

U.S. Soldier Killed In Baghdad

A roadside bomb killed a U.S. soldier Wednesday in Baghdad, making May the deadliest month for the American military since September.

The attack occurred two days after a blast struck a U.S. convoy west of the capital, killing three Americans, including two civilians and one soldier.

The spike in deaths comes as U.S. forces face a June 30 deadline to pull back from urban areas as part of a U.S.-Iraqi security pact that took effect this year.

At least 20 American service members have died so far this month, compared with 25 in September, according to an Associated Press tally.

It is the second consecutive month that the number of American troop deaths in Iraq has increased, raising concerns that insurgents are regrouping before the U.S. withdrawal.

April had at least 19 American troop deaths, more than double the nine killed in March, which was the lowest since the war began in March 2003.

The Multi-National Division - Baghdad soldier died of injuries sustained when the bomb exploded near a patrol in an eastern section of the capital, the military said in a statement.

In all, at least 4,302 members of the U.S. military have died in the Iraq war, according to the AP count.

Four U.S. civilians also have been killed in Iraq since Friday.

They included a top reconstruction official who once headed the Illinois Commerce Commission and a Defense Department employee working for the U.S. Embassy who were killed in the roadside bombing on Monday on the eastern outskirts of the former insurgent stronghold of Fallujah.

A defense contractor also died in a rocket or mortar attack near the U.S. Embassy and another was found stabbed in his car on Friday.

Iraqis also have faced a resurgence of violence with a series of deadly attacks in recent months, illustrating the resilience of militants despite security gains.

In the latest bombing, a car bomb exploded near a medical compound in Abu Ghraib west of Baghdad, wounding at least 15 Iraqis, according to police and hospital officials.

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to release the information.