Arizona Congressman On The Ropes

Republicans and Democrats are marshaling potential candidates to run for Rep. Rick Renzi's congressional seat in case the Arizona Republican bows to pressure to resign in the wake of an FBI raid last week on his family business.

Renzi has denied all wrongdoing and has said he will serve out his term. State Republicans also say they support him.

But Republican Party operatives already are floating the names of potential candidates for his seat, including former state Senate President Ken Bennett, a sign that they are preparing in case Renzi decides to step aside.

The Phoenix Business Journal, citing unidentified sources, reported that Renzi might resign as soon as Friday.

Members of both parties are contemplating a special election to fill Renzi's seat if he resigns mid-term.

"It clearly concerns us that as this investigation goes where it may head to," Arizona Republican Party Chairman Randy Pullen said. "We're watching it very carefully. I feel for Rick and his family — tough times for him."

"What's important here is to see how House Republican leadership is handling the situation," Pullen added. "They're ... clearly thinking ahead. Any sense of impropriety is not good."

Law enforcement officials confirmed in October that they were scrutinizing a land deal that benefited a Renzi friend and business associate who was also a campaign donor. Last week, the FBI raided a Sonoita, Ariz., insurance business owned by Renzi's wife, Roberta.

Renzi temporarily stepped down from the House Intelligence Committee the day of the raid. Tuesday, he took a leave of absence from the House Financial Services and Natural Resources committees.

He also withdrew from a House Republican fundraising campaign, which raises money for incumbents in vulnerable seats.

Renzi insisted this week that he has been "the subject of leaked stories, conjecture and false attacks."

In an e-mailed statement to The Associated Press late Wednesday, he added: "I am honored to have recently been re-elected, and I'm looking forward to continuing to serve the people of the 1st District for the next two years."

But by stepping off his committees and taking himself out of the party's fundraising program, he is effectively cut off from key tools congressmen use to raise money and pass legislation.

The investigation also is flaring up as Republicans are trying to recover from scandals that contributed to losses in 2006 and cost them control of Congress.

House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, has made it clear that all ethically challenged Republicans will face severe consequences.

If Renzi were to step aside before his term ends, it would likely trigger a special election to fill his seat.

Asked whether he was in contact with potential candidates to replace Renzi, Pullen said names were being circulated, but he hadn't had any discussions with them.

Besides Bennett, state Sen. Tom O'Halleran and state Rep. Bill Konopnicki have been named as possible Republican candidates.

On the Democratic side, state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick and unsuccessful 2006 U.S. Senate candidate Jim Pederson are among 10 names being floated as potential contenders. Kirkpatrick has already formed an exploratory committee to consider a race.

"We had considered looking at this race before any of this unfolded," Kirkpatrick said. "It's just for the purpose of testing the waters. That's all we're doing."

Renzi represents a vast, rural district, narrowly divided between parties. Republicans have prevailed in recent elections and likely would have the advantage in the next election, said Fred Solop, a political scientist at Northern Arizona University.

But Amy Walter, an analyst for the Cook Political Report, said the GOP probably would prefer to avoid a special election because they are expensive and often volatile. That would make it even harder to hold the seat for the Republicans, still reeling from the 2006 election.

"This is not a great time to have a special election in a swing district like this one," Walter said.

It's also possible that both parties could end up with multiple candidates, meaning they would have to hold potentially contentious primary elections.

Stan Barnes, a Republican political consultant and a former state lawmaker, said the lure of an open seat is strong.

"If all of the sudden a congressman disappears and there's a vacancy, that political vacuum created by a vacancy — a surprise vacancy — is so strong that it will awaken all these ambitions all at the same time," he said.