Arafat, Figurehead Leader?

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, on the eve of today's Mideast peace summit in New York, said the U.S. is open to the idea of Palestinian President Yasser Arafat being offered a political future as a figurehead leader of the Palestinians.

Powell said in a television interview broadcast late Monday that he would be "more than willing to consider" a proposal that the Arafat remain in symbolic office above a Palestinian prime minister who would hold the executive power.

Proponents of the "kick Arafat upstairs" idea believe it could bridge the gap between the U.S., which insists on a new Palestinian leadership, and the Arab and European leaders Powell will meet today.

The Arabs and Europeans say it is up to the Palestinians to choose their own leader, even if they insist on Arafat.

Arafat and the Palestinians have already rejected earlier U.S. and Israeli demands that Arafat be replaced before meaningful peace negotiations can resume.

In an Israeli radio interview today, Arafat adviser Nabil Abu Rdeineh stressed that "it is the right of the Palestinian people" to choose their own leader. "If the Americans are serious and willing to see peace and progress they should understand that there are red lines that nobody can jump," warned Rdeineh.

Powell will meet today in New York with European Union officials led by foreign policy chief Javier Solana, the Egyptian and Jordanian foreign ministers, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov and U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan.

The United States, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations make up the Middle East "quartet," an informal coordinating group seeking an elusive common approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

In the interview taped for ABC's "Nightline" program, Powell said the United States continues to believe that Arafat has "failed" because of his inability or unwillingness to prevent Palestinian attacks on Israelis.

Citing the new U.S. policy outlined by President Bush in his Mideast speech on June 24, he said: "He (Bush) said it would be difficult to work with Chairman Arafat any longer because he hasn't produced. He didn't mention him by name, but I don't think the implication was lost."

Pressed repeatedly on the proposal to "kick Arafat upstairs" by putting him in a job that seems lofty but has little real power, Powell said: "It is a formula I'd be more than willing to consider."

It was not immediately clear how far the United States would accommodate the views of the Arabs and the Europeans, given severe criticism of Arafat in Washington over the past three weeks and the joint Israeli-American policy of ostracizing the Palestinian leader diplomatically.

Powell continued: "What I am more interested in seeing is whether or not a person emerges who is able to operate with authority and able to put in place systems that work, able to put in place a security apparatus that works, that will show transparency with respect to the use of money."

The future of Arafat, along with the balance between demands on Israel and on the Palestinians, is likely to dominate the one-day meeting, part of a series designed to work out an international action plan for the Middle East for the months leading up to Palestinian elections early in 2003.

All the participants agree that the end result should be a Palestinian state living in peace alongside Israel. However, the Bush administration says progress depends on an end to violence and changes in the Palestinian leadership.

The Arab view is that the violence will increase unless Israel also takes steps, such as withdrawing its forces from Palestinian towns they reoccupied after a series of Palestinian suicide bombings in June.

Shibley Telhami, a Middle East analyst at Washington's Brookings Institution, said the non-Americans in New York would look for U.S. flexibility on the Palestinian leadership issue and press for quick steps towards a Palestinian state.

"They are trying to see if there is any room for maneuver, particularly in terms of a road to a Palestinian state and ... seeing if leadership change doesn't necessarily means removing Arafat," said Telhami. "This meeting is an exploration of ideas to see if there is any wiggle room that the two sides can live with."

Edward Walker, president of the Middle East Institute and a former assistant secretary of state, agreed the future of Arafat and the timing of steps by Israel would be the focus.

But the analysts said they doubted much would come of the New York meetings, despite the media attention they attract.

"I can't say I'm optimistic that anything serious and implementable can come up in this environment," Telhami said.

Walker said: "I think it's going to be difficult. They will try to come out with something acceptable to all of them."

An Arab diplomat, who asked not to be named, said that even if the Arabs and Europeans found Powell to be flexible, they could not be sure that the White House would back him.

The White House and the State Department have repeatedly expressed opposing views on Middle East policy, particularly on the wisdom of dealing with Arafat.

The day of talks on Tuesday opens with a meeting of the "quartet" leaders, followed by separate Powell meetings with Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher and Jordanian Foreign Minister Marwan al-Muasher. All six will gather later at the New York residence of the U.N. secretary-general.

Three Arab nations - Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia - are attempting to resuscitate the collapsed peace talks with a plan to which a source says the Palestinians have already said would be acceptable.

The source says that in the first stage of the plan, the Palestinians would hold January elections for a leader and a new parliament as part of a broader reform effort. Soon after, they would seek United Nations recognition for a state based on the borders that existed before the 1967 Mideast war. The term "based on" leaves an opening for border adjustments, flexibility the Arabs have resisted up to now.

If the U.N. recognized such a Palestinian state, Israelis and Palestinians could then negotiate the precise borders and other tough issues. The source says a one-year deadline would be set for negotiating an agreement, and the deal would be implemented in a second year.

The source also says the Palestinian Authority is planning to launch a new dialogue with militant groups to persuade them to agree to a unilateral cease-fire - first inside Israel and then in the West Bank and Gaza as well.

No reaction was available from Israel. Raanan Gissin, a spokesman for Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, said Israel will examine the proposal after it is formally presented.