Afghan Election Runoff Key to U.S. Success

It looks like the Afghan people have to do it all over again - and it's not just the presidency of Hamid Karzai that's riding on the outcome, reports CBS News national security correspondent David Martin.

Bruce Riedel, a principal architect of the Obama administration's strategy in Afghanistan, says the runoff is critical to American success.

"The most immediate requirement we need is to fix the Afghan election fiasco," Riedel said. "We have got to come up with a better solution than the one we have right now."

A runoff is not likely to produce a new president. Secretary of State Clinton has already declared Karzai the preemptive favorite.

"I think one can conclude that the likelihood of him winning a second round is probably pretty high," Clinton said.

CBS News Special Report: The Road Ahead

But, says Alexander Thiery of the U.S. Institute for Peace, it gives Karzai a chance to erase the stigma which hangs over his victory in August.

"The legitimacy of this election has been so tainted by the allegations of fraud that a runoff holds the promise in some ways of clearing away some of that illegitimacy," Thiery said.

The U.S. can't win in Afghanistan if the government it is backing against the Taliban is seen as illegitimate. But a runoff will take time.

"It could delay at least for another month and a half our learning who the next president of Afghanistan will be," Thiery said.

And General McChrystal, the American commander in Afghanistan, is still waiting for the president to grant his urgent request for more troops.

"This situation is not static," Riedel said. "It is going downhill and it is going downhill rapidly."

In August McChrystal warned that without more troops in the next 12 months the war could be lost. By the time the Obama administration makes a decision he could be down to 10 months.