Levine: Jake Arrieta Start Key To NLCS
By Bruce Levine--
NEW YORK (CBS) -- Remember this stat before watching Cubs right-hander Jake Arrieta take the mound against the Mets and Noah Syndergaard on Sunday evening in Game of the NLCS: 10-1.
What does that number mean? Arrieta was an amazing 10-1 in his starts after Cubs' losses in 2015. Now, he will have to perform his magic one more time if the Cubs want to maintain a legitimate shot at winning this series over a team with a hard-throwing, tough pitching staff on the other side of the diamond.
The talented Arrieta showed he was human in his NLDS start, lasting just 5 2/3 innings and allowing four earned runs. Four runs was the total opponents had scored off of the Cy Young candidate the entire months of August and September combined during the regular season. Cubs manager Joe Maddon and the front office felt that after that start, an extra day of rest would benefit Arrieta, and they were confident in playoff veteran Jon Lester making the Game 1 start on extra rest. New York took the opener 4-2.
Game 2 and this start for Arrieta become a series-changing event. If the Mets hold serve on their home field and go to Chicago up 2-0, the pressure and smart money will be on them to win. The numbers and eye test, as Maddon likes to say, point to the Mets handling the Cubs' third and fourth starters (Jason Hammel and Kyle Hendricks) in an easier fashion than Arrieta and Lester.
No panic will set in for the loose bunch of Cubs players handled expertly by Maddon and his staff all season. The playoffs, however, have their own particular pressure that no one but the players themselves can respond to.
Maddon is counting on the power arm of Arrieta, to change the tone of the series.
"Our players gain a lot of confidence when he pitches," Maddon said. "For the most part, it is about being ourselves and trusting ourselves. We need to not worry about outcome so much. If we take care of the other stuff, (good fundamental play) the result will be in our favor often."
Arrieta has thrown 243 2/3 innings in 2015, which is almost 90 innings more than he has ever thrown in one season. Until his last start, nobody had questioned his durability. To his credit, he looked more out of sync than tired against the Cardinals, against whom he still struck out nine batters.
Back-to-back walks that scored in that game were something way out of the ordinary for Arrieta, who only walked four hitters total in his previous seven starts. That will be a key in watching Arrieta toe the rubber against New York.
"The physical toll really has not bothered me," Arrieta said. "I do think the mental side and all the energy you burn leading up to it has a little bit of effect. Now having a couple of these (playoff starts) under my belt, I am pretty confident going in that I'll be able to handle that (pressure) very well."
Moving that record of his to 11-1 after Cubs losses can and may be a playoff- and franchise-changing event for Arrieta and his teammates.
Bruce Levine covers the Cubs and White Sox for 670 The Score and CBSChicago.com. Follow him on Twitter @MLBBruceLevine.
