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This post by Jill Schlesinger originally appeared on CBS' MoneyWatch.com.

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I walked outside after the awesome Landon Donovan World Cup goal and heard the following comment: "He was lucky-just happened to be in the right place at the right time!" Um, no...he was exactly where a striker should be, that is, attacking the opposing team's goal and following up on his teammate's attempt.

The killjoy who uttered the "lucky" comment surely knows nothing about soccer (for the record, I know a little something, since I played soccer in in my youth and in college), but he reminded me of a refrain that I've often heard about individual investors: they should stick to "buy and hold" because reallocating portfolios relies on market timing, or luck.

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This post by Jill Schlesinger originally appeared on CBS' MoneyWatch.com.

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You know that there's something wrong with housing when sub-5% 30-year fixed rate mortgages can't inspire buyers to budge. The MBA said mortgage applications dropped last week, despite hovering at 4.75%, yet existing home sales fell unexpectedly by 2.2% to an annual rate of 5.66 million units in May-new home sales are expected to drop nearly 5% when they are released later this morning.

An optimist might point out that existing sales were up 17.7% from a year ago, while a pessimist would say that we are piling up inventory, bringing the current supply of homes to 8.3 months (the peak level of supply was 11.2 months in 2008). Prices usually fall when inventory levels are above six months. Uh-oh.

Housing experts blame the expiration of the tax credit, which is not a good reason to extend it yet another time. In fact, the housing and mortgage markets are functioning in a rational manner: with lots of houses on the market, buyers are taking their time. Additionally, amid tight lending conditions and plenty of underwater borrowers, it's hard to qualify for a re-fi. Taken together, mortgage demand has dropped.

I don't think that we're about to see another massive collapse in the market, but with the supply of homes outstripping demand, prices could fall another 5-10%. The bottom line: we're going to have to wait for the housing market recovery to unfold the old fashioned way: allow market forces to burn up supply and find the proper level for prices.

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Weak housing data put investors on edge, a day ahead of a report on new home sales and the results of the Fed's interest rate meeting. The report put pressure on U.S. stocks yesterday, as the Dow tumbled 148 points or 1.4 percent to 10,293; the S&P 500 was off 1.6 percent to 1095; and the NASDAQ fell 1.2 percent to 2261. The selling spread to Asian and European markets. U.S. futures indicate a slightly higher opening.

With only a fragile recovery in place, there's virtually no chance that the Fed will raise interest rates from the current level of 0-0.25 percent at the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting this afternoon. It's also doubtful that the key language about "exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period" will remain in the statement. The Fed last raised rates four years ago, on June 29, 2006.

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Only days after having resolved a pilot strike, low-cost carrier Spirit Airlines unveiled today an ill-considered promotion advertising discounted fares to certain beach destinations that appears to make light of the Gulf oil spill.

The online slideshow ad, which is still up on the airline's homepage, begins with the slogan "Check Out The Oil On Our Beaches" written on the screen and then flips through slides of bikini-clad women supposedly on the beaches of Cancun, San Juan, Atlantic City and Ft. Lauderdale.

The spot then ends on an image of a green bottle of sun tan oil that reads "BEST PROTECTION $50* OFF", with the 'B' and 'P' highlighted in yellow, a clear reference to the BP oil company. Customers who click on the ad are taken to a screen with a message that reads in part, "Check out the oil on our beaches. You won't be disappointed."

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It took just two-thirds of one trading day for the investor euphoria over China's yuan announcement to fade.

After U.S. stocks closed lower on the day, Asian shares dropped today on fears that a stronger yuan would slow China's growth, and European stocks have dropped after a 9-session bull run on renewed concerns of the debt crisis spillover.

Today, the focus will be on housing. The National Association of Realtors will release May existing home sales, which are expected to rise 5 percent, to an annual rate of just over 6 million units (from April's 5.77 million annual rate). The data comes as concerns over the administration's mortgage plan ("HAMP") are escalating after the release of the Monthly Housing Scorecard.

The box score on housing looks something like this:

• A bunch of trial modifications were canceled, which portends more foreclosures;

• There are still many who are in loan modification hell; and

• Many of the borrowers in the plan could re-default rate in the coming years.

There's no way around this basic fact: Housing is going to be messy for the foreseeable future.

After a second consecutive positive week for global stocks, Asian and European markets are up this morning, and U.S. futures are pointing higher. Thank China for the early gains on the week.

Over the weekend, China's central bank said it would allow the Chinese yuan to float against the U.S. dollar. For years, the Chinese currency (known as the yuan or the renminbi) has been pegged to the value of the dollar, which has kept the cost of Chinese exports low.

While China had allowed its currency to rise against the dollar from mid-2005 to mid-2008, it returned to a peg in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

The artificially-low yuan skewed the ability of U.S. manufacturers to compete effectively with their Chinese counterparts, and American exporters have said that an undervalued yuan gave Chinese exporters an unfair advantage on the global stage. If the Chinese currency were to reflect the strength of the world's third-largest economy, the yuan would be trading at higher levels — and the cost of Chinese exports would rise.

Some analysts say that the Chinese currency announcement is bunk because China's move will be "gradual." The skeptics note that for years, China has talked about currency revaluation, but done little to get there.

If the Chinese do get serious about easing the currency peg, the quick look at winners and losers:

Winners would include: U.S. exporters (whose goods will be valued more fairly); U.S. trade deficit (which could narrow on a more equitable exchange rate); U.S. employment (which could rise); the Chinese economy (which can't rely solely on exports to fuel its growth); Chinese consumers (who will have an opportunity to buy global goods); and potentially, Chinese citizens (who could benefit from more government spending at home, because China no longer would have to spend as much money maintaining the artificial currency level).

Losers would include: U.S. consumers (who could pay more for China-made goods); U.S. importers (who purchase Chinese goods and sell them in the U.S.); and in the short-term, bears who bet against a stock market rally today after two consecutive weeks of gains.

Shhh ... the stock market just had 2 consecutive winning weeks (and the 3rd gain in 4)!

The last back-to-back weekly gain of more than 2% for the Dow was the two weeks ended 11/13/09. U.S. Stock indexes, now trading in the middle of their 2010 range, have nudged into positive territory for the year.

Still, there's rampant discussion of a double-dip recession on the horizon. We have to be careful not to confuse growth deceleration with recession or a bear market. The U.S. economy grew by 5.6% in Q4 2009 and probably by about 3% in Q1 (final Q1 GDP this week) — that's not a recession, but a slowdown from the government-juiced levels of Q4. At this point, most economists say this is a classic mid-cycle slowdown, a natural part of the recovery process.

Additionally, while we did correct more than 10% from the recent April highs (13.7%, to be exact), we are not yet in a classic bear market (defined as a 20% retreat). I still think that the cyclical bull market is intact.

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This post by Jill Schlesinger originally appeared on CBS' MoneyWatch.com.

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It's probably a good day to sneak off early and head to the beach.

With little economic news on tap today, only hard-core traders are likely to stick around for Quadruple Witching, a quarterly event when contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire.

The day sometimes can lead to market volatility, but in today's case, it's likely to be quiet, especially after yesterday's data download.

If you missed those reports, here's a quick recap:

Weekly jobless claims increased (bad); leading economic indicators increased (good); the Philadelphia Fed's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions plunged from 21.4 in May to 8 in June (very bad); and consumer prices remained subdued (good for consumers, not so good for companies, but probably good for investors, since Fed has ammo to keep interest rates low).

The bottom line was that U.S. stocks closed marginally higher; Asian were mixed, though Japan's Nikkei finished its best week in three months; and European stocks are trading higher, as the Euro maintains its recent gains. U.S. futures are drifting lower.

This post by Jill Schlesinger originally appeared on CBS' MoneyWatch.com.

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Thank you, BP. Here again is an opportunity to review a few fundamental rules about investing.

1) Avoid individual stocks: the nearly 50% plunge in BP's stock price since the Gulf oil spill, in addition to yesterday's suspension of the dividend, is further proof that for most investors, individual stocks are rarely worth the risk.

Recently, I got into a bit of a verbal jousting match with a financial "pundit," who was extolling the virtues of teaching young investors how to buy and sell individual securities. I was called "elitist" because I maintained that it was nearly impossible to properly diversify a portfolio  with less than $200,000. And even if you have a million bucks, what makes you more likely than a mutual fund manager to beat a relevant index? Seems they can't do it-after fees and taxes, most managed (or hedge) funds don't beat the relevant index fund. Standard & Poor's assembles this data each year and as of the end of 2009, across all categories, with the exception of emerging market debt, more than 70% of active managers have failed to beat benchmarks.

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