We have literally seen and felt it all when it comes to the weather on Marathon Monday. We've had driving rain, frigid temperatures, sweltering heat and snow squalls. Here's a look at some of that history.

We now expect there to be more clouds than sunshine and some scattered showers along the route as well. 

There will not be any heavy or driving rain, but there could be enough to get the runners and roads a bit wet.

Some good news, with this slight change in the forecast, the winds look less gusty and impactful. 

Boston Marathon route weather forecast 

Conditions will not vary much along the course. Many times, we have a warm tailwind through about Newton, and then runners hit a cooling seabreeze head on as they close in on Boston. This will not be the case this year.

Temperatures will slowly climb from the mid-40's at the start line in Hopkinton at 9 a.m. to about 50 degrees by early to mid-afternoon at the finish line in Boston.

Skies will be mostly cloudy, again with a chance of some rain showers or sprinkles.

Winds will be steady from start to finish between 5 and 15 miles per hour out of the northwest (blowing across the runners from left to right). 

There's also a baseball game at Fenway Park Monday morning. The Red Sox will face the Detroit Tigers at 11:10 a.m.

Temperatures will range from the mid-to-upper 40s between the late morning and mid-afternoon with a chance of a few showers.

How might Boston's cold and snowy winter affect this year's allergy season?

The frost and cold temperatures of winter may briefly delay the onset of intense tree pollen. That's only because tree pollen is usually the first to really show up. The cold can also yield milder tree pollen conditions for us this spring. 

However, this can also lead to a surge or spike in tree pollen once we string together a few warm and dry days this spring. So there is a bit of a give-and-take relationship here. If we experience a delay, we may be dealing with an intense spike to follow.

Tree pollen forecast: Some good news?

Forecasting the severity of pollen that causes allergies depends heavily on weather conditions and the current pollen count. Historical climate and pollen data also come into play.

Based on all of the available information, the current prediction is for a lower-than-average tree pollen season for New England during April and May, with the peak being in the middle of May.

Grass pollen forecast: On pace for average

Summer is the season that sees the highest grass pollen counts late May through July. With the peak expected in July, this could be a fairly average year for grass pollen in the northeast. 

Warm, dry and breezy days carry grass pollen into the air, making it worse. Any extra rain we receive will certainly help wash it away and lower the pollen count. But similar to the delayed effect with cold and frost, a soaking rain can in turn help grass grow faster and produce an additional burst of pollen right after.

Weed pollen forecast: Potential for a milder season

This typically peaks late summer into early fall for New England during August and September. Potentially good news here again, as a September peak may yield less-than-average weed pollen counts. 

This would be more likely if we see a lack of rainfall early on in the season, along with colder temperatures towards the beginning of fall.

Forecasting seasonal allergies

Realistically, seasonal allergy forecasting is not very reliable. Here are some of the challenges.

At the end of the day, forecasting seasonal allergies is not a perfect science.

Lack of available data

There are tools that capture the current pollen count at a point location, then use that data to make assumptions about the pollen count for a much broader area. But the availability of those tools is very limited.

Reliance on weather patterns

Additionally, the pollen forecast depends heavily on the current weather patterns at each location. Meteorologists are pretty good at weather forecasting (it is predicting future events after all), but there's a reason why we publish a seven-day weather forecast, not a two-month forecast.

Emphasis on historical data

We can look at past pollen counts and climate data to help. But if too much of the forecast relies on that, it doesn't give us much use (or explain the variability) in the seasonal outlooks you may find online each year.

It really comes down to knowing when different trees, grasses, and weeds are in bloom. When they bloom, allergies spike. 

If it's windy, warm and dry, then whatever is in bloom will spike. If it rains, then rain may briefly give us some relief and wash the pollen away. A simple explanation, but that's where we land at the beginning of every season.

Boston got to 73 degrees just before 2 p.m., passing the prior record of 71 set way back in 1978. By Tuesday evening, the temperature reached 75 degrees in the city. 

Worcester also hit a high temperature record Tuesday, passing the 2020 mark of 67 degrees and climbing to 70 degrees by the afternoon.

This was the first 70 degree day in Boston since October.

Temperatures peaked at 68 in Boston Monday, nowhere near a record (77 back in 2016), but it was the first time the city topped the 60-degree mark in 2026. 

The last time it was this warm in the city was October 19. Our last 60-degree day in Boston was on November 26, that was 105 days ago, the longest stretch between 60-degree days since 2014-2015.

On Tuesday, we got even higher. particularly along and north of the Massachusetts Turnpike and across the Merrimack Valley.

Seventy degrees early in March is somewhat rare. Our average first 70+ day in Boston is April 7 and last year it took until April 19.

Is winter over?

A question that WBZ Executive Weather Producer Terry Eliasen fielded more than once Monday: Is winter over?

His answer: Let's not get too ahead of ourselves after one warm day.

Temperatures later this week and beyond look to be near the average, give or take a few degrees.

We will probably have a few more bouts of cold, but cold shots in March are a lot different than January or February.

Will there be more snow in Boston?

It is also likely that we will see some additional snow.

Our average last measurable snowfall in Boston is March 29.

In nearly 150 years of record keeping, Boston has recorded no measurable snow after March 10 only 12 times (including last year).

Granted, snow amounts after today's date are typically meager, but just look at 2016 (10.2"), 2017 (11.2"), and 2018 (17.6").

So, it's too early to stick a fork in winter in Boston on March 9.

Several towns are already instituting water restrictions leaving many residents scratching their heads as spring begins Friday. 

The latest drought monitor shows that more than 50% of Massachusetts is currently in a "moderate" drought and more than 90% of the state has some drought classification.

New Hampshire and Maine are even worse off, with about half of those states currently in "severe" drought. 

So, how is that possible?

First, let's address the snowiest winter in 11 years. Take a look at the snowfall amounts from the winter months. Boston totaled nearly 60 inches of snow, most of which stayed locked up in giant piles in our backyards until recently.

Here's the problem. That five feet of snow only melted down to about 3.5 inches of water. That's about a third of what we need for an average winter. 

This was a factor of how cold it was this winter and during the snowstorms. A typical snow-to-liquid ratio is 10:1, meaning every 10 inches of snow should contain about one inch of water. The overall ratio this winter was closer to 17:1, meaning much less actual water within the snowpack. 

It also barely rained. This week's rain was the first significant rainfall since mid-October.

So, despite two big snowstorms, Boston currently sits more than 3 inches below the average precipitation in 2026.

That alone would not really be a big deal and certainly wouldn't lead to moderate or severe drought status. 

However, if you combine this winter's numbers to those from 2025, you can start to see a pattern.

Twelve of the last 15 months have had below average precipitation in Boston, totaling up to about a water deficit of about 10 inches.

Those numbers are even worse in parts of central and northern New England.

Experts are terming this more of a long-term drought given the longevity but still, a wet spring could change things in a hurry.

The weather over the next several months will be vital in determining how strict the water restrictions and bans will be come summertime. Most of us aren't rooting for a bunch of rain in April and May, but it would sure would go a long way into replenishing our local lakes and rivers.

The latest outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for April shows equal chances of above or below average rainfall in the Northeast.

The same goes for the three-month outlook.

Whatever happens in Massachusetts will pale in comparison to the situation out west. After a record breaking mild winter with very little mountain snowfall, much of the western portion of the country is preparing for a major water crisis this spring and summer. This may also lead to a very active brush fire season west of the Rockies this year.

Another round of downpours and storms is forecast to roll through southern New England between 11 p.m. and 4 a.m. tonight.

The Storms Prediction Center has placed parts of the area in a level 1, "marginal" severe weather risk (dark green in image above) and to the north of that area, (in the light green) a general thunderstorm risk.

Things could get pretty loud overnight starting as early as 10-11 p.m.

The storms will largely move offshore between 2-4 a.m.

Some of these storms are likely to contain heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and to a lesser extent, gusty winds.

As usual, widespread and prolonged summer-like weather is very hard to come by this time of year around here. You can blame the ocean.  The thing that draws so many folks to New England and gives us such joy in the summertime can be an absolute party-pooper in the spring.  

While the rest of the country heats up so quickly and easily, there is a battle going on in New England.  In short, it is nearly impossible to get a day in April where everyone is in the 70s or 80s.  If the winds blow from the south or southwest, the South Coast and Cape Cod get the cold, ocean air.  If the winds blow from the east, forget it, we are lucky to get out of the 40s.  If the winds don't blow or are light, sea breezes develop, stunting any warming, especially close to the coast.  

This week is definitely going to be one of those weeks.  Sea breezes, backdoor cold fronts, periods of marine air-induced low clouds and fog, and on top of that, a daily shower and storm threat.  Yet, for a large portion of Massachusetts, this will be the warmest week yet. 

Let's go day by day:

Tuesday

The warmest day of the week overall with several inland towns topping 80 degrees.

A south-southeast wind will keep the South Coast and Cape and Islands in the 50s and 60s.

Along the east coast, temperatures will warm to 70 or a bit higher before dropping back in the afternoon.

Tuesday also brings a decent shot of some late day showers and thunderstorms.  Watch out between 4 p.m. and 10 p.m. for some heavy downpours and perhaps, a few isolated severe thunderstorms.

Wednesday

There will be more clouds around Wednesday than Tuesday so temperatures will not be not as high.

We could still reach the mid to upper 70s west of Route 495, but areas inside of 495 and 95 look to be stuck in the 60s.

There is also a chance of an isolated shower or storm here and there, but likely nothing quite as organized or strong as Tuesday.

Thursday and Friday

Generally, the end of the week looks much the same. The best chance of warmer temperatures (70s and 80s) is inland, with a fairly high risk of cooler, onshore winds in eastern Massachusetts.

Also, both days carry a slight risk of a passing shower or storm.

The weekend 

At this point, it looks like temperatures will be much cooler across Massachusetts by this weekend.

Saturday will almost certainly be a cooler day with lots of low clouds and temperatures stuck in the 50s.

Sunday has a chance of being warmer, but it all depends on the timing of a cold front.

Boston Marathon weather forecast

Monday looks like the coldest day of the entire forecast for the Boston Marathon.

Currently, we are forecasting mid-to-upper 40s for high temperatures with a very gusty, westerly wind making it feel like the 30s.

The National Weather Service has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for portions of southern Vermont, western Massachusetts and New York State through 10 p.m. tonight.  

While central and eastern Massachusetts and New Hampshire are not currently under the watch, we still believe that there is a risk for some isolated to scattered thunderstorms.  

The Storms Prediction Center has included areas in yellow in a "marginal" risk for severe weather this evening, essentially a level 2 of 5 risk. Eastern Massachusetts, shaded in green, has a lower risk, level 1.

We expect a broken line of thunderstorms to form in New York State late Tuesday afternoon and push eastward through this evening.  

The timeframe to watch in southern New England is from 6 p.m. to 11 p.m. Storms could arrive before 8 p.m. to the north and west of Boston, 8 to 10 p.m. in the Boston/Mass Pike area. After 10 p.m., they will head south of Boston and dissipate.

There is a much higher risk of storms reaching severe levels in New York, Vermont and western Massachusetts (generally between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m.). During this time, there may be frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts and even a small risk of an isolated tornado.

As the storms move into eastern Massachusetts (8 p.m. and later), they will lose some steam and likely drop below severe thresholds.  There may still be some leftover downpours or a few rumbles of thunder, but by 10 p.m. to 11 p.m., any and all cells should be dissipating.  

Variety of precipitation types

We expect conditions to go downhill hour by hour after dark and travel will become quite treacherous in many areas.

The precipitation will start as a mixture of rain and sleet across southern New England.

Throughout the overnight hours, we will settle into mainly rain south of the Mass Pike and a mix of sleet, freezing rain and snow to the north.

Ice accretion concerns

Untreated roadways will quickly become slick and treacherous north of the Pike.  

Our greatest concern for ice accretion (freezing rain) is in southern Worcester County and in Western Massachusetts and Connecticut, where up to .25" or more will accrete on power lines, trees and any untreated surfaces around your home.

After midnight, temperatures will cool just enough for the sleet to change over to snow across northern portions of Worcester, Middlesex and Essex counties as well as southern New Hampshire.

How much snow from the storm?

Snow could fall quite heavily at times around and just before dawn before tapering off after 7 a.m.

We are forecasting 3-6" of snow in northern Middlesex County and most of Essex County and southeastern New Hampshire.

There will be 1-3" of sleet and snow in Worcester County, southern Middlesex County and Suffolk County.

Just to the south of the Pike, only some scattered coatings of sleet.

Flooding concerns

We are also concerned about pockets of localized flooding across southeastern Massachusetts, where most of the precipitation will fall as rain.  

We expect between 1-1.5" of rain over this area which, of course, still has a very extensive snowpack.

Warmer weather ahead

Once we get past this event, the weather story will shift towards warmth and melting.   

Next week will certainly be a shock to the system with highs between 60-70 degrees Sunday through at least Tuesday.  With temperatures like that and a much higher sun angle, just about all of the snow cover should be gone by this time next week.

This will be a minor event, essentially just about a 4-to-6 hour period of light to moderate snowfall across Massachusetts Wednesday.

Boston weather today

It started snowing in Worcester County and western Massachusetts around 7 a.m. and in eastern Mass. between 8 and 9 a.m.

Some roads may become snow-covered, especially those that are untreated.

The snow will last through midday and taper off between noon and 2 p.m.

There could be a touch of rain mixing in along the South Coast, Cape Cod and Islands.

Boston snow

This will be a borderline plowable situation.  

We are forecasting a coating to one inch in Boston and across eastern Massachusetts and 1-to-2 inches west of Route 495.

Much of what falls and accumulates will likely melt by the end of the day.

We expect developing sunshine in the afternoon and temperatures in the upper 30s.

Thursday night snow?

One more "snow note."

There is a slight chance that southernmost New England will get fringed by a storm passing well to our south Thursday night.

Most models are showing a complete miss, but just wanted to put it out there. We will update this forecast as data comes in over the next 24 hours.

If some snow does come ashore, amounts would be very light.

Let's end on a positive note - the forecast for the weekend calls for temperatures to be near 50 degrees on Saturday.

You can watch WBZ-TV's live coverage throughout the snowstorm on CBS News Boston. 

For the first time in four years, the National Weather Service has issued a Blizzard Warning for parts of Massachusetts and southern New England.

Specifically, the warning is for the entire North and South Shores, Boston, Norfolk County, Plymouth County, Bristol County, Cape Cod, and Martha's Vineyard. In addition, blizzard warnings now extend all the way west through Worcester County, Springfield and Hartford, Connecticut.

It is VERY unusual to see blizzard conditions that far inland. Most times, the whiteout is limited to the immediate coastline where winds are strongest and unabated. 

To the west and north of those areas, there is a Winter Storm Warning in place.

What is a blizzard?

In order to achieve blizzard status, the following must occur.

"Considerable falling and/or blowing snow which reduces visibility to less than ¼ mile for 3+ hours AND sustained winds or frequent gusts 35 mph or greater in that same timeframe."

Essentially, whiteout conditions.

This will be an incredibly deep and powerful area of low pressure.

As the storm travels north-northeasterly, it's undergoing "bombogenesis," a fancy term for a very rapidly deepening and strengthening low-pressure system. The central pressure is expected to drop about 33 millibars in just 24 hours, easily achieving bomb cyclone status. 

When will the snow end?

We expect bands of snow that will produce snowfall rates of 1-to-3 inches per hour Monday morning into the afternoon.  

This will be the absolute brunt and peak of the storm. Blizzard conditions may occur anytime within this window.  

During Monday afternoon, the winds will shift to a more northerly direction as the center of the storm starts to pull away from our area. The snow will now pivot from north to south in bands across our area, but also become a bit lighter and more spotty, especially by 5 p.m.

Between 5 and 10 p.m., the bands will pull eastward and eventually move completely offshore.

We don't expect much, if any, accumulation after 10 p.m. Monday.

The worst travel will be through 3 p.m. on Monday. The hours on either side of that will still be tough going, but not quite as severe.  

How much snow?

If the current forecast verifies, this could easily be a top ten all-time snowstorm for Boston, the second of this winter!

16-to-24 inches: A wide jackpot zone from the Cape Ann area down through Boston, back to Worcester and covering all of Bristol and Plymouth counties.

10-to-16 inches: Northern Essex, northern Middlesex and northern Worcester counties. Also Cape Cod and Martha's Vineyard. Also the mid to outer Cape and Martha's Vineyard.

6-to-10 inches: Nantucket, southern New Hampshire and most of western Massachusetts.

We expect the majority of the snow accumulation to occur Monday morning through early afternoon. Snowfall will continue to accumulate after that, but at a much slower rate.  

Where is the "jackpot zone?"

The best chance of seeing more than two feet of snow appears to be across inland portions of Plymouth and Bristol counties as well as northern Rhode Island.

This is our best guess for a "jackpot zone".

So if you live in towns like Brockton, Bridgewater, Attleboro or Taunton, you just may be the "winners" this go around.

Will the snow be light and fluffy?

Inland and west of Interstate 95 the snow will mostly be light and fluffy. Not quite as fluffy as the January storm, but still fairly easy to move around.

The snow will be heavier and wetter along the immediate coastline and over southeastern Massachusetts.

By Monday afternoon, the final several inches will be lighter and fluffier.

Wind concerns

Wind is a real concern. Northeast gusts will reach 55-to-70 miles per hour or higher across southeastern Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands.

Just inland from there, we could see gusts between 40-to-55 mph.

Again, the farther west you go, the lower the wind impacts.

Combine the heavier nature of the snow along the coast with the very strong winds and you get a high likelihood of tree and wire damage as well as power outages.

It is a good idea for all southern New England residents to prepare for the worst this weekend before the storm arrives. Be prepared to lose power and have a plan.

We certainly do NOT recommend driving during the peak of the nor'easter.  However, if you must go out, make sure your vehicle is also well-equipped and prepared for a worst-case scenario.  

Coastal flooding concerns

Finally, we have concerns about some minor to moderate coastal flooding during the Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning high tides.

There will almost certainly be significant splashover, coastal inundation and beach erosion.

The highest risk of coastal flooding will be in the few hours surrounding each high tide cycle. The times to watch are:

• Monday 2 to 4 a.m.
• Monday 2 to 5 p.m.
• Tuesday 3 to 5 a.m. (north-facing beaches)

Will this storm make history?

Is this bringing back any memories from that insane winter of 2014-2015?

It has been just about as cold, average temperatures have been very similar.

As of this date in 2015, Boston had just about 100 inches of snow, well ahead of where we are FOR NOW. We will see how close we get.

Could we see a run at the history books?

In order to break the top 10 biggest snowstorm list for Boston, this storm would have to drop 21.4" or more, a tall task but NOT impossible! 

Stay with the WBZ NEXT Weather Team for frequent updates on WBZ-TV, CBS News Boston and WBZ.com.

A fast moving clipper system is going to sweep through New England Tuesday evening, bringing with it a brief round of snowfall.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for New Hampshire, Vermont, Maine and parts of Massachusetts.

When does snow arrive?

The snow arrives in eastern Massachusetts between 4 p.m. and 6 p.m. Tuesday, just in time for the evening commute in the Boston area.

There could be a pretty significant burst of snow as it arrives, leading to roads becoming snow-covered rather quickly.

The steadiest snow will occur from 5 p.m. through about midnight.  We are watching for some banding which may lead to slightly higher snow amounts in localized areas.

The snow will exit eastern Massachusetts around or just after midnight, ending as a little rain/snow mix over the South Coast, Cape Cod and the Islands.

How much snow will we get?

We expect between 2 and 4 inches of snow in most of southern New England. Slightly lower amounts (coating to 2") over far southeastern Massachusetts.

This is certainly enough to plow, shovel and snow-blow.

Milder temperatures ahead

Once the snow exits, we can turn our focus to milder days and melting some of our extensive snowpack.

While there isn't a huge warmup coming just yet, high temperatures will be above freezing each and every day this week including Wednesday when we may reach 40 degrees for the first time since January 22nd.

Areas exposed to direct sunlight could lose as much as half of their snowpack by this weekend.

The National Weather Service has issued winter weather advisories for central and eastern Mass., and a winter storm watch for Essex County. 

Saturday snowstorm

This is not your classic storm that moves from west to east and drops a fairly uniform amount of snow.  

Instead, our snow on Saturday is being generated by something called an "inverted trough." This is essentially an extended area of "convergence" protruding hundreds of miles north-northwest of a low-pressure system.  

Where the trough sets up, you get winds converging, which creates lift in the atmosphere and heavier snowfall in highly localized areas.  

The trick with this snowfall forecast is trying to figure out where these highly localized snow bands will be.

We feel the most likely areas are in central Massachusetts (initially) and then, over coastal Mass., particularly in Essex County, the North Shore, and Cape Ann.

Saturday snow timeline

Snowfall is continuing for eastern Massachusetts throughout Saturday. It began early morning before dawn. Luckily it will begin to taper off for most of the area after sunset.

 Later in the evening, light snow is still expected in areas around the Cape and the Islands. Flurries will persist overnight across far southeastern Massachusetts. 

How much snow?

The snowfall forecast map is a bit complex. We are attempting to find and highlight those areas where heavier snow bands are likely.  

We are forecasting 3-5" in most of Worcester County and along the immediate coastline. Areas in between, including a good portion of Middlesex County and Norfolk County, should see lower amounts, closer to 1-3".  

We have highlighted an area from the New Hampshire coastline down through Cape Ann and the North Shore as a potential jackpot zone with up to 5-10" of accumulation.  

Wind and cold to follow

The National Weather Service has issued extreme cold warnings from Worcester County through western Mass. for the chance of wind chills as low as -30 degrees.  

Across eastern Mass., cold weather advisories are in place for wind chills as low as -20 degrees.

This is for the time period from 6 p.m. Saturday through midday Sunday.

Northwest winds will gust between 20-40 mph across southern New England Saturday night into Sunday.

The wind chills will bottom out Sunday morning, it will be absolutely brutal outside.

High temperatures on Sunday will only reach the teens across southern New England, close to record low maximums for the date.

Super Bowl weather forecast

One final thought: As you settle in on the couch on Sunday to watch our beloved New England Patriots, you can dream of warmer climates, like California.

The difference in air temperatures between Boston and Santa Clara on Sunday afternoon, just about 50 degrees. It will be 65 degrees in Santa Clara compared to 16 in Boston.

Factor in the wind chill and we are talking about a 70-degree swing.

It sure seems like the cold has been unrelenting and unusual, so, what's the deal? And, when might we turn things around? Let's start by digging into the numbers.

Boston's cold by the numbers

Boston has been keeping weather records for a little more than 150 years, a pretty good sample size when compared to other major cities.

Here is how this winter has stacked up:

December
Average temperature: 31.3 degrees
4.4 degrees below average
23 of 31 days were below average
This was the 46th coldest December since records began and the coldest December in Boston since 2017.

January
Average temperature: 28 degrees
1.9 degrees below average
18 of 31 days were below average
This was the 58th coldest January since records began and the coldest January since 2022.

December and January together
Average temperature: 29.6 degrees
47th coldest on record
Coldest since 2004

The overwhelming takeaway is that it really hasn't been *that* cold compared to an average Boston winter. However, there are a couple of major *buts* with that statement.

Colder than recent years

Sure, if you look strictly at the numbers and stats, taken over a century and a half, it would appear that this winter was only slightly colder than average. But we may be suffering from recency bias.

When you compare this winter to say, the last 25 years, it looks much different.  

This December-January was tied with 2018 for coldest since the winter of 2003-2004. So, if you were born in the last few decades or moved here in the last 20 years or so, this would indeed be tied for the coldest December-January that you have ever endured in Boston.  

Even more recently, let's just look at the last cold wave which started around Jan. 23. The last 10 days in Boston, Jan. 23-Feb 1., was the coldest stretch (for those particular days) since 1961.

Bottom line, we have had some very mild winters in the last couple of decades. It's likely this has, in some ways, made us forget what a real, cold New England winter feels like. All those stories your parents would tell about their treacherous walks to and from the bus stop amid snowstorms and bitter cold - now you can relate.  

When will it get warmer in Boston?

Let's start with the immediate short-term, this week: A definite improvement from last week, but still below average each day by 5-10 degrees. Temperatures could get as warm as 34 degrees on Tuesday.

How about a medium range outlook, say 6-10 days: More of the same, warm in the western U.S. and cold in the East thanks in large part to another Arctic blast coming this weekend.

The 8-14 day outlook and the outlook for the full month of February ... ditto.

You can bet that February will finish below average, making that the fourth straight month going back to November in Boston.

For once we agree with the groundhogs that predicted six more weeks of winter today.

On a positive note: Our sun will be setting after 5 p.m. in Boston starting Tuesday.

Also, in just 34 short days, we "spring ahead" to Daylight Saving Time. 

Hang in there, New England. 

We will be on the back side of the storm system on Monday, otherwise known as the "backlash."  This is essentially the last gasp of the storm which will be moving away from New England.

There are a few major differences between the storm on day one and day two.

• The good news - the majority of the snow accumulation is done.  About 80-90% has fallen.
• The winds will be veering towards the north, causing temperatures to drop across eastern Massachusetts once again.
• The snow will be more spotty and variable in coverage and intensity on Monday afternoon and evening.

In addition to the backlash area of snow, we will also be watching for some ocean-enhanced snow bands right along the coast.  These bands are typically very localized but can be intense in bursts.  Similar to the lake-effect snow in western New York, the variation in snow amounts can widely vary from town to town.

Snow timeline

By midday, the backlash will start to fill in and it should be snowing light to moderately across most of our area.

As the winds veer more northerly, temperatures will steadily drop across eastern Massachusetts.

There will be one final burst of snow between 5 p.m. and 9 p.m. across central and eastern Massachusetts.

If you are planning a final driveway cleanup, you will have to wait until this passes.

By 10 p.m., most of the snow has ended, with perhaps just a few final flakes over Cape Cod.

That will bring to an end a nearly 36-hour long snow event.

Snow totals

When all is said and done, we expect an additional 1-4" of snow accumulation on Monday.

There may be some spot towns with slightly more than 4 inches thanks to those ocean-effect snow bands. The best chance would be coastal Essex County, Suffolk County (Boston area) and Plymouth County.

The day two snow may be just enough to place this storm in Boston's top 10 storms on record. The city needs to to reach 19.8", we are well on our way.

Fluff factor

Outside of the South Coast, Cape Cod and the Islands, the snow in this storm has been very light and fluffy. This is largely good news as it is much easier to move around. 

This kind of snow also does not stick to tree limbs and power lines very well, so power outages are much less of a concern.

The one thing about snowfall in very cold temperatures is that it stacks up fast. You can easily get twice as much snow accumulation from a storm with temperatures in the teens as from one with temperatures near 32 degrees (both with the same actual melted liquid content).

The airmass behind this storm is quite cold and there will be very little melting next week. Temperatures are likely to stay below 32 degrees for the entire week.  

Blizzard conditions?

We have very little concern about the wind with this storm. We will see northeasterly gusts between 20-40 mph right at the immediate coastline. This is much lower than our typical strong and destructive nor'easters. Can we call this a nor'easter? Technically yes, but the winds will only be a minor issue.

A reminder that in order to achieve "blizzard conditions" you need to have three consecutive hours with sustained winds or frequent gusts at or over 35 mph and visibility less than a quarter of a mile. That is not likely in the storm given the wind forecast. We may flirt with these types of conditions right at the coast at times, but sustaining them seems unlikely.

Boston weather radar

You can track the snowstorm with the CBS News Boston weather radar.

Stay tuned to WBZ-TV, WBZ.com and CBS News Boston for frequent updates before and during the storm. The WBZ NEXT Weather team has you covered. 

So, when does it start? When does it end? When should you clean up? Here's the latest on the storm timeline.

When is the snow starting in Boston?

Sunday 8 a.m. to noon: There may be some stray flurries early Sunday morning here and there but the true shield of snow associated directly with the storm will move in from south to north across southern New England between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m.

The first flakes should fall in Boston and Worcester sometime between 10 a.m. and 12 p.m. Along the Massachusetts/New Hampshire border, it'll be between noon and 2 p.m.

Intensity: Light to moderate during the morning hours.

Accumulation: Very little accumulation expected, scattered coatings.

Sunday noon to 3 p.m.: The snow encompasses all of southern New England during this timeframe.

Intensity: Light at first, then the intensity picks up quickly

Accumulation: Mostly coatings to an inch or so. Up to 2" well southwest. 

Sunday 3 p.m. to 8 p.m.: We enter the "teeth" of the storm. Visibility lowers significantly, and the snow really starts to stack up.  Travel gets worse by the hour. We may see some mixing with ice/rain over the Islands.

Intensity: Moderate to heavy. Some areas receive 1" or more per hour.

Accumulation: Widespread 3-6"+ by 8 p.m.

When is the worst of the storm in Boston?

Sunday 8 p.m. to midnight: The storm is at its peak, travel at its worst. Visibility less than a quarter mile in heavier bands. Winds gusty along the coastline.

Rain/ice mix in along the South Coast, Cape and Islands. A coastal front sets up near I-95 and temperatures rise in eastern-most areas, making the snow a bit wetter.

Intensity: Heavy, potential for 1-2"+ per hour.

Accumulation: 6-12" across southern New England.

Monday 12 a.m. to 7 a.m.: Steady/heavy snow starts to become more scattered. A dry slot moves up over portions of Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeastern Mass. This will either shut off the precipitation completely or dramatically lessen the intensity.

The rain/mix line reaches its farthest northern location (likely around Plymouth). Winds will be gusty out of the northeast along the coastline. The coastal front sits to the west of Boston along I-95, marking the difference in temperatures between the upper 20s to the east and teens to the west.

Intensity: Starts heavy then becomes quite variable/spotty.

Accumulation: 10-16" in all areas except South Coast/Cape/Islands.

When does the snow end in Boston on Monday?

Monday 7 a.m. to 5 p.m.: The storm makes its closest pass to southern New England and then begins to head east, out to sea.  The winds will veer to the north, and the coastal front will be swept away. The frigid, Arctic air will extend back over eastern and southeastern Mass., and any standing water from the rain/mix area will freeze quickly.

Areas of snow now rotate from north to south but are scattered. It will snow moderately in some areas, lightly or not at all in others. Watch for some locally heavy, ocean-enhanced bands of snow near the coastline.

Intensity: Variable.

Accumulation: 12-20" by the end of the day, again except for extreme southeastern Mass. It would make sense to do a driveway cleanup during the day on Monday, just keep in mind you could receive another coating to 2".

Monday 5 p.m. to midnight: The area of snow begins to rotate eastward. Snow ends in central and western Mass. The final few snow bands pass through eastern Mass.

You can safely go out and cleanup the driveway without worrying about much additional accumulation.

Tuesday 12 a.m. to 7 a.m.: Done. Let the cleanup begin. Temperatures will be very cold Tuesday and all of next week, we probably will stay below 32 degrees right through next weekend.

In other words, no melting.

Click here for the latest snow map that shows the potential for 20 inches of snow or more in Massachusetts.

Our WBZ Weather Team is highlighting the three-day stretch from Saturday through Monday with a NEXT Weather Alert for the likelihood of a major one-two punch of extreme winter cold and snow.

We are still days away from the storm's arrival here in New England and therefore, we anticipate several changes and tweaks to our forecast. The trends are definitely concerning and that is why we are raising the alert.

Coldest air of the season for Boston area

We can say with absolute certainty that the coldest air of this winter season will arrive Friday night. This is an air mass with origins in the Arctic region, near the North Pole.  

Low temperatures on Saturday will range from the single digits to as much as 10 degrees below zero in southern New England. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will likely not make it out of the teens.  

This Arctic air out ahead of the storm is an essential ingredient and will be a major factor in creating an historic winter storm across the United States.

Winter storm

This will be a rare combination and clash of very different air masses. A near-record cold and strong, Canadian high pressure system will collide with a moisture-laden, atmospheric river of air from the deep Pacific and turn the southern and eastern United States into an atmospheric battle zone.

This will be the most impactful winter storm the United States has seen this winter and perhaps, in several years.  

By Friday, we expect dozens of states to be under blizzard and ice storm warnings.

Travel across the country will be severely impacted and many airports will inevitably need to shut down.

This storm system will grow to be more than a thousand miles wide and by Sunday, will likely cover just about the entire eastern half of the country.  

How much snow?

Current snow and ice estimates across the South and Mid-Atlantic are staggering. 

There will be a swath of 1-2 feet of snow that will extend for 1,000 miles or more. Some major cities currently forecasted to be within that area through Sunday afternoon include Oklahoma City; Lexington, Kentucky; Washington, D.C. and Philadelphia.  

Just to the south of the snow shield, a very dangerous ice storm will be occurring in cities like Dallas, Little Rock, Arkansas; Nashville, Tennessee and Charlotte, North Carolina. 

Anticipate hundreds of thousands of power outages and perhaps, several days before the lights come back on.

Boston weekend weather

As for New England, the trend in the last 24 hours is for a more northern track and much higher impact in our area. What would that scenario mean?

Snow would likely begin lightly during Sunday morning and afternoon with the brunt of the snow and accumulation coming Sunday evening through a good portion of Monday.

Under a worst-case scenario, it may be snowing for nearly 36 hours. Should this occur, a foot of snow or more would not be out of the question across most of southern New England.

The fluff factor

With temperatures being so cold, the snowfall in our region would be very light and fluffy. That type of snow tends to stack up quickly. Many of our biggest snow storms and highest snow totals have occurred with Arctic airmasses in place.  

To give you an idea of how much temperature matters: Let's say the storm drops a total of 1.0" of water (liquid equivalent). Under "normal conditions" with temperatures near freezing or slightly below, you get a ratio of 10:1, meaning 10" of snow for 1" of liquid.

With a true Arctic airmass in place, that ratio can grow to 20:1 or higher, meaning 20" or more of snow for the same 1" of liquid.

Would you believe, it has been nearly four years since Boston had a snowstorm of 6" or more? This is the second-longest such stretch on record.  

So, it has certainly been a while for all of us. If the worst-case scenario plays out, this will be unlike anything we have seen or experienced in quite some time.  

Finally, some good news: With many of our most infamous nor'easters and coastal storms, there is a major wind and coastal component. Not this time. Tides are astronomically fairly low and winds will be a bit gusty at the coastline, but not expected to be all that impactful.

This is definitely one of those storms that it is imperative to stay tuned to the forecast.

The WBZ NEXT Weather team will have you covered every step of the way. Stay tuned to WBZ-TV and WBZ.com for frequent updates.  

More importantly for us, there was a coronal mass ejection (CME) from this area which is partially headed for Earth. 

Those particles are expected to impact our upper atmosphere Monday night with the potential of causing a G3 to G4 (severe) geomagnetic storm.  

Northern lights forecast

Keep in mind, forecasting the northern lights is very tricky, much harder to predict than your weather. Ultimately, until the CME arrives within a million miles or so to Earth, we won't really know how strong the "storm" will be. (The sun is 93 million miles from Earth).  

All that aside, here is what experts are predicting for tonight:

As usual, the farther north you live, the better the chance of seeing the northern lights. However, tonight may be one of those nights when folks in the mid-latitudes get a rare chance to see the phenomenon.

How to see the northern lights

Conditions are expected to peak locally just after midnight. It appears that 1 a.m. to 4 a.m. may be the best window to see an aurora.  

If you are planning to take a look tonight, keep in mind that to increase your chances of seeing the lights you need to find an area without artificial light and with a wide, clear view of the sky.

More importantly, bundle up. Temperatures will be in the teens overnight and it will feel like the single digits with a gusty wind.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 7 am Monday for all of southern New England (except for Nantucket).

Massachusetts snow timeline

While snow showers through the daytime hours were light, bringing minimal impact, the snow will become steadier and heavier through the evening until around 1 a.m. 

As temperatures drop to around and below freezing the snow will also be able to accumulate leading to snow covered roads and slick travel. 

7 p.m.-Midnight: This is the brunt of the storm and when the majority of the accumulation will occur. Snow will expand in coverage to include most of central and eastern Massachusetts. Roads will become snow-covered and visibility will be lowered in many areas.

Midnight-6 a.m.: The main area of snow exits off the coast, and we are left with a much lighter and scattered snowfall. There may be one final burst along the immediate Coastline before tapering.

6 a.m.-10 a.m.: Chance for some last scattered snow showers snow showers during Monday morning. They will be lighter than at night, but could bring an extra light coating to some roads.  

How much snow will Massachusetts get?

3-6 inches: Just about all of eastern Massachusetts including Worcester and Boston and all areas around and inside of Interstate 495.

1-3 inches: Areas north and west of I-495 and Route 2, including western Massachusetts, southern New Hampshire, southern Vermont, and southern Maine.

1-3 inches: Most of Cape Cod, the Islands and the Massachusetts South Coast, due to mixing with rain.

Wet, heavy snow 

Temperatures throughout the storm will be near or slightly above 32 degrees. This will make for a very wet and pasty snowfall. This kind of snow is also a bit harder to readily accumulate at first due to some melting with contact. 

Keep in mind, when you eventually head out to shovel,  this stuff is going to be heavy to move around. Take is slow and easy.

What's next?

We'll get some melting with temperatures in the low to mid 30s Monday but after that … it's going to get cold!  An Arctic front moves through Monday night into Tuesday bringing highs just in the 20s Tuesday and wind chills in the single digits and low teens.  Another batch of cold air then looks to move in for the end of the week and weekend! 

The snow Tuesday evening will be nothing more than a minor inconvenience or, glass half full, a nice mood-setter for the holidays.

Will it snow before Christmas?

It will be located mainly north of the Mass Pike across Worcester, Middlesex and Essex counties. Boston will likely see a few hours of snow as well.

The snow will quickly taper off from west to east tonight ending in central Massachusetts between 8-10 p.m. and in eastern Massachusetts between 10 p.m. to midnight.

Snow amounts will be light with just a coating to an inch from Boston to Worcester and areas to the north.

There will be a tad bit more, 1-3" across the border in parts of southern Vermont and New Hampshire.

Christmas forecast

As the storm blows up well to our east, out at sea, we may get one last band (otherwise known as an inverted trough), during Wednesday morning and early afternoon.

If you are traveling along or east of I-95 on Wednesday, you may encounter some wind-whipped, ocean-effect snow showers that could briefly whiten the roadways and reduce visibility.

Beyond that, we do not foresee any weather issues Wednesday night or Thursday.

It will be rather chilly, but seasonal on Christmas Day with a bit of a gusty breeze at times.

The WBZ weather team is issuing a Next Weather Alert for incoming snow showers on Tuesday. We especially want to highlight the potential weather impacts, given that Tuesday will be a major travel day ahead of Christmas.  

Tuesday snow

On Tuesday, a fast-moving "clipper" will pass through the upper Midwest and New England. This will not be a major storm system, but it is likely to bring some light snow accumulation to parts of our area. 

Right now, it appears as though the majority of accumulating snow will occur during the daytime on Tuesday. Snow is favored in central and northern New England, while a wintry mix may occur as you head farther south. After our snow cover was washed away after Friday's rain, Tuesday's storm will be our last chance to whiten the ground before Christmas.  

The farther northwest of Boston you live, the better chance of hitting the 1-3" snow accumulation. That said, it's looking more favorable the closer we get to Tuesday that Boston and parts of the south shore will be including in the 1"+ range as well.

This map shows our current thinking regarding snow totals on Tuesday. 

The closer you get to the Cape and Islands, the more likely we are to only see a coating to an inch.

As you can see, your odds still rise with each mile you travel northwest of Boston. The chances of plowable snow from this system remain low across most of our area, except in northern Worcester County and parts of southern New Hampshire and Vermont.

Will Massachusetts have a white Christmas? 

But the official definition of a white Christmas is one inch of snow on the ground as of 7 a.m. Christmas morning.

Right now there's about a 20% chance of that occurring in Boston, but the closer we get to 495 in Lowell and Haverhill, it could rise up to a 40% chance. Further northwest, up Route 2, it has around a 60% chance. 

Funny thing is, that is kind of similar to the historical odds of a white Christmas in our area.   

This map uses data compiled from the last 150 years or so.

Christmas travel weather

Early next week, there will be two areas to watch for impactful weather if you are traveling for Christmas. The Pacific Northwest and Northern California will undoubtedly be the spots with the most challenging travel conditions, as they will be battered by multiple waves of rain and wind.

Much of the Central U.S., east of the Rockies, will be quiet and mild.

Christmas Day weather

Things will quiet down on Christmas Eve, and there shouldn't be any travel issues for Santa and his reindeer on Wednesday night. 

Christmas Day also looks relatively quiet and seasonal with highs in the low to mid-40s. There may be a stray sprinkle at some point, but that's about it.

All in all, it seems Mother Nature has put us on the "nice list" this year.  

Temperatures will range from the teens over southeastern Massachusetts to slightly below zero north and west of Boston.

The winds will be decreasing at that point but still enough to add an extra bite to the air.

We will spend the entire day Friday below freezing with highs in the 20s throughout most of southern New England.

We will rebound into the mid 30s by Saturday, still about 10 degrees below the average.

It appears as though this may be just the first in a series of bitterly cold shots in the next 7-10 days. We are likely to get another blast of cold on Monday and perhaps a third around the end of next week

Over the last few days there have been multiple Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) from sunspot 4274 on the surface of the sun.

Forecast models are predicting a direct hit to Earth's upper atmosphere Thursday night and a glancing blow again Friday.

Northern lights forecast

Experts are now forecasting the potential of a strong geomagnetic storm Thursday evening, which in turn, means there is likely to be increased auroral activity.  

The light show actually began Wednesday night as auroras were spotted in several northern states, though it was too cloudy in Massachusetts.

Wednesday night's sightings were caused by a glancing blow from a CME, meaning tonight's show has even more potential.

Aurora sightings are possible as far south as New Jersey tonight as seen by the black line on the map. While they are far more likely across portions of the Upper Midwest and northern New England, skywatchers throughout the northeast should be on the lookout.

How to see the northern lights

It seems that the highest odds of auroral activity in southern New England may be early this evening, peaking around 7 p.m.

Here's the caveat: Auroras are very difficult to predict and can be very finicky and fleeting.

To increase your odds of a sighting, find an area with the least amount of artificial light and a wide open view of the sky and horizon.

Another challenge this evening: The just-past-full moon. The added moonlight will unfortunately make the aurora more difficult to see.  That doesn't preclude us from seeing the northern lights but it may mean we need a stronger surge of geomagnetic activity and deeper colors in order for the naked eye to catch the show.

There has been a surge in northern lights activity in the past year as the sun has been in a period of solar maximum during its 11-year solar cycle. Space Weather Prediction Center forecast coordinator Shawn Dahl told WBZ-TV last year that the ramped-up auroras could continue into 2026.

Over the last week or so, we have had several very gusty days, including Tuesday. As of mid-day, most of southern New England was experiencing gusts between 25-50 mph.

The WBZ weather team is issuing a NEXT Weather Alert for Wednesday night because it appears as though that event could be a slightly higher impact.

The National Weather Service has already issued a High Wind Watch for all of central and eastern Massachusetts from Wednesday night through Thursday morning.

Storm bringing some snow to northern New England

The wind is coming on the back side of an "Alberta Clipper." This type of storm is named from its source region (Alberta, Canada) and typically describes a fast-moving but potent storm system that makes a beeline from Alberta to New England in the fall and winter. 

Many times, it can mean accumulating snowfall for our area and, while there is some snow expected in northern New England, this will bring just a few rain showers to southern New England late Wednesday. Again, the main impact will be the wind that arrives after the storm passes.  

The best chance of seeing a shower or downpour will be between 8 p.m. and midnight on Wednesday.

Wind timeline for Massachusetts

The winds will come on quick and strong, peaking between 11 p.m. Wednesday and 7 a.m. Thursday.

West-northwesterly gusts could reach as high as 45-65 mph during that timeframe.

That would certainly lead to scattered tree damage and perhaps, some power outages.

After 7 a.m. on Thursday, the winds will slowly taper down, below warning criteria by midday and afternoon.

First, there is a major category 5 hurricane, Melissa, hitting Jamaica Tuesday before charting a course off the East Coast later this week.

While the track of Melissa will be several hundred miles off the Massachusetts coastline, there is going to be a tropical connection with another storm system closer to home. This will make for some soaking rainfall and gusty winds in New England on Thursday.

Early rainfall estimates for Thursday are between 1 and 3 inches across southern New England with the heaviest rainfall coming Thursday night. 

Halloween weather forecast for Boston

It looks like the rain gets out of here early on Friday, likely by dawn.

There may be just an isolated sprinkle during the day Friday along with a mix of sun and clouds and a gusty westerly wind.

Wind gusts during peak trick-or-treat hours on Friday will range between 25-35 mph for most of the area, perhaps a bit gustier over the Cape and Islands. Make sure the outdoor decorations are tied down.

The official Halloween forecast calls for highs near 60 in the afternoon and dropping through the 50s between 5-8 pm.

We do not expect any rain issues; however, the winds will stay busy.

Recent Halloween weather "tricks"

Halloween has been one of the wildest weather holidays on the calendar in recent years.

Between 2010 and 2020 we had several major weather events occur on or just before Halloween causing many local towns to postpone or cancel the festivities.

From "Snowtober" to Hurricane Sandy, it was a raucous stretch of Halloween weather.

Over the last five years we have gone from several inches of snow in 2020 to near record warmth last Halloween!

It seems the "tricks" just keep on coming.  

When does Daylight Saving Time end?

Last but not least, a reminder that Daylight Saving Time ends this weekend.

So don't forget to turn the clocks back one hour before bed on Saturday night.

Sunset on Sunday is at 4:36 p.m.

The WBZ weather team is issuing a Next Weather Alert for the storm that will start the week.

Winds are expected to be strong during the first part of the day, with some of the highest gusts on Martha's Vineyard of up to 45 mph. Boston could see wind gusts top 35 mph around noon.

Although these winds likely do not pose a severe threat, it will be a good idea to secure loose items ahead of the first round of downpours on Monday morning.

Heavy rains in Massachusetts

The line of heavy rain will sweep in from Western Massachusetts with some thunderstorms possible in the morning hours. 

We aren't expecting this to bring anywhere near the rainfall totals our recent nor'easter soaked us with last week, however the quick round of downpours will bring an additional half inch to an inch of rain Monday. Higher amounts are possible in any thunderstorms that occur.

Western and central portions of Massachusetts get hit first with the line of showers between 6-7 a.m. The line of heavy downpours and the potential for embedded thunderstorms will then push east through mid- to late morning, moving offshore with some drying during the afternoon.

The all-clear comes during the Monday evening commute and Tuesday, with another round of rain expected for Wednesday.

Stay with the WBZ Next Weather Team as we continue to track both the Monday and midweek rain.

You can almost smell it in the air. We are starting to check some "winter is just around the corner" boxes:

• We had our first nor'easter a few days ago
• We had our first widespread frost and freeze
• The leaves are turning and dropping (quicker than usual this year)
• And finally, social media is starting to light up with various winter forecasts

The main forecast factor in their outlook was the emergence of a weak La Nina, which they expect to persist through the winter.

And, sure enough, their precipitation and temperature forecasts very much resemble that of a typical La Nina winter.

What does winter look like this year?

What does this mean for New England? Essentially NOAA says that we have equal chances of above and below average precipitation ... no big news there.

The biggest takeaway was their temperature forecast which showed slightly higher probabilities for a warmer than average winter in southern New England.

How does NOAA determine forecast?

NOAA uses a probability-based forecast that can be somewhat confusing. Essentially, they are taking the most recent 30-year dataset and breaking it into three categories.

The coldest or driest 10 years are put in one category, the warmest or wettest into another and the remaining 10 years are in a "middle or equal chances" category.

Each category comprises 33% probability (totaling 100%). The forecasters then decide which of the three categories any given location is most likely to fall in and assign values based on that.

So, for southern New England, they are forecasting the warmer than average category but just barely. They are saying we have a 33-40% chance of having a warmer than average winter ... again, equal chances would be 33%. Think of it as three people playing the card game "War" and one player has a couple extra cards in their pile. They have a slightly better chance to win but it wouldn't take much for that to change.

What's the takeaway from all of this? At this point, there are no strong atmospheric signals in either direction. That certainly may change as we head into November which often is a harbinger for the upcoming winter.

As of Monday morning, 1-3" of rain had already fallen across southeastern Massachusetts. Click here to see which towns have the most so far.

This area will continue to be the bullseye for the heaviest rain for the remainder of the storm.

We expect an additional 1"-2" across most of eastern Mass. and .5"-1.0" a bit farther inland.

When will the rain and wind stop?

The rain will continue at varying intensity through Monday night and into early Tuesday.

The rain will taper to a drizzle/mist during Tuesday morning.

Winds have topped out between 40-55 mph across the coastal plain and in particular over far southeastern areas.

The National Weather Service has continued the wind advisory through 8 p.m. Monday night for the Cape and Islands.

Thankfully, the worst of the winds are behind us, and we will see a very slow, gradual decreasing of peak gusts in the next 24-36 hours.

Therefore, we expect only minor issues today with wind damage and power outages.

Coastal flooding

Coastal flooding has largely been minor thus far and we have one more high tide cycle to watch.

There will be minor inundation and splashover between 3 p.m. - 7 p.m. during the Monday evening high tide and the National Weather Service has issued a coastal flooding advisory for that timeframe.

Once this storm passes, the rest of this week looks pretty quiet. Temperatures will largely be below average with highs in the 50s and low 60s.

Why is there a nor'easter in October?

When you hear the word "nor'easter," it might conjure up thoughts of wind-whipped snow or giant waves crashing over our sea walls. While sometimes that does occur, nor'easters are not just a winter phenomenon. 

Storm season in New England typically begins around now, in October, and lasts through March or April. This is when we tend to get clashing air masses of warm and cold that feed on an infusion of energy from the warm Gulf Stream off the East Coast.  

Boston nor'easter timeline

A WBZ-TV NEXT Weather Alert is in effect through Tuesday.

Monday: The peak of the storm arrived early Monday, with the heaviest rain and strongest winds.  

Monday has the look of a washout in southern New England. Still, northernmost New England should be mainly dry, albeit overcast and cool.

Northeast wind gusts will peak between 30 to 45 mph across the coastal plain, and between 45 to 60 mph on Cape Cod and the Islands. A wind advisory has been issued for Barnstable County until 8 p.m. and a wind warning has been issued for Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard until 2 p.m. Monday.

There may be some isolated wind damage and power outages, but we do not expect any significant or widespread issues.

Tuesday: The storm will hang around to our south through the day on Tuesday, but it will begin to erode and weaken. So, you can expect continued showers, but less intense than Monday and also slowly diminishing winds. Still a very gray, wet and windy day, but with signs of improvement.

Rainfall totals from the entire storm will be highest across the Massachusetts east and southeast coasts.  A conservative estimate is between 1-3", but there is a chance of isolated pockets reaching as high as 4-5".

This is largely good news given our recent drought status however, if too much falls all at once, there may be some localized flooding.

Lesser totals are expected to the north and west.

Coastal flooding from nor'easter

Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast, especially in low lying areas near the shore as well as beach erosion and splash over during high tides. The National Weather Service has issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for most of eastern and southeastern Massachusetts from noon to 4 p.m. Monday.

Forecasts call for about a half foot of inundation on vulnerable coastal roads, but this would not put the Boston area in any significant flood threat.  

Finally, the seas will be very angry and churned up early this week. Wave heights just offshore are expect to be 5-10 feet or higher.

As always, the WBZ NEXT Weather Team will keep you updated and covered throughout the storm. Stick with us on WBZ-TV, CBS News Boston and WBZ.com

It has been one of the warmest starts to October on record, but all of that is about to change. A crisp, chilly airmass is bringing the coldest air of the season thus far.

How cold will it be in Boston?

High temperatures on Thursday will be some 20-to-25 degrees colder than what we have been experiencing in recent days.

But it is Thursday night when the real chill arrives.

With clear skies, dry air and light winds, temperatures will drop like a rock Thursday night into early Friday. This has prompted the National Weather Service to issue a freeze warning from 11 p.m. Thursday to 9 a.m. Friday.

Most of the northern and western suburbs of Boston will bottom out between 28 and 32 degrees around 6-to-7 a.m. on Friday.

First frost

You can see that in a typical year, areas like northern Worcester County and the Berkshires have their first frost in late September.

Areas in green and yellow in the picture typically have their first frost/freeze right around now - right on schedule.

As a reminder, a frost occurs when the water vapor in the air freezes on contact with surfaces like grass and your windshield. This can actually occur in temperatures near or slightly above 32 degrees. A frost doesn't always lead to the death of vegetation.  

A freeze on the other hand is much more deadly to existing, tender plant life. A freeze occurs when temperatures are at or just below 32 degrees, this what we expect in those areas north and west of Boston early on Friday.

Therefore, we do expect significant damage to plants.

Protecting plants from freezing

Here's the thing about Friday morning's freeze, it is likely to be a "one-off" as we do not expect any similarly cold mornings for at least a week or more in the following days.  

So, if you want to keep your mums or other plants and flowers alive for a while longer, take some steps before you go to bed Thursday night.  

For potted plants, you can simply bring them indoors for the night.  

For vegetation in the soil, you have several options. You can cover them with a cloth or blanket, give them some extra water the night before or even load up the base with some additional mulch.  

Does it seem like the growing season is lasting a bit longer than it once did? This is true. Climate change has pushed our first frost and freeze dates nearly a week longer on average in the Boston area over the last 50 years.  

The fall season has been the second fastest warming season (only behind the winter) in our area over the last several decades.

The Storms Prediction Center has placed all of southern New England in a "marginal" risk for severe weather today.

This is the lowest category (1 of 5) that the center issues.

In addition, the center issued a 5% risk for damaging winds within any thunderstorms that form today.

Boston weather today

There could be a few widely scattered downpours as early as 2 p.m. to 3 p.m. this afternoon.

The greatest risk comes between 6 p.m. to 11 p.m. this evening. This is when many models show a cluster of storms moving from west to east across the state.

The main concern would be for some locally heavy downpours along with some occasional lightning. There is a smaller chance of some isolated wind damage or hail.

Again, we do not anticipate a major severe weather outbreak today. We would urge you to stay tuned to the latest forecast and keep an eye to the sky if you have any outdoor plans this evening.

July 4th forecast

Looking ahead a few days to the 4th of July: For the most part, it is a near perfect weather forecast.

The humidity from the next few days will be gone, leaving a very comfortable airmass in its place.

The day will start with wall-to-wall sunshine and temperatures in the 70s by late morning and noon.

The air well above our heads will be a bit unstable on Friday so, there will likely be some clouds popping up during the afternoon.

There is a very slight risk of an isolated, pop-up shower at some point in the afternoon or evening. This is not something to necessarily focus on as the chance is very low.

Highs will rise into the low 80s during the afternoon.

For fireworks displays at night, the skies will be mainly clear, and temperatures will fall back into the upper 60s and low 70s.