CBS News Poll analysis by the CBS News Polling Unit: Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto.(CBS News) President Obama and Mitt Romney are effectively tied in the race for the presidency, according to a new CBS News/New York Times survey.
Forty-seven percent of registered voters nationwide who lean towards a candidate back Romney, while 46 percent support the president. Four percent are undecided. The 1 percentage point difference is within the survey's three-point margin of error.
Romney leads by eight points among men; the president leads by five points among women.
The president's supporters are more likely to strongly back their candidate. Fifty-two percent strongly favor Mr. Obama, while just 29 percent of Romney voters strongly back the presumptive Republican nominee.
More than one in three Romney voters say they are supporting Romney primarily because they dislike Mr. Obama. Only eight percent of Obama supporters say their support for the president is tied to their dislike of Romney.
Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats when it comes to voting in this election, though just one in three registered voters overall are more enthusiastic than they were in the past. Roughly half of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic compared to past elections - up from 36 percent in March - while just 27 percent of Democrats say they same.
One in five registered voters with a candidate choice said they still might change their mind. The percentage of those willing to switch was essentially the same for both candidates.Continue »
CBS News Poll analysis by the CBS News Polling Unit: Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto.
(CBS News) Nearly two out of three registered voters believes that President Obama's policies contributed to some degree to the economic downturn, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll.
Thirty-four percent say Mr. Obama's policies contributed significantly to the downturn, and another 30 percent say they contributed to some degree. Thirty-five percent say the president's policies contributed little or not at all to the downturn.
While a majority of voters say Mr. Obama has at least some ownership of the recession, far more blame his predecessor, President George W. Bush. The downturn began before Mr. Obama took office.
Nearly half say Mr. Bush's policies played a significant role in creating the nation's current economic problems. Another 33 percent say they played some role. Only 18 percent say Mr. Bush's policies had little to no impact.
Forty-six percent of registered voters - including more than half of independents - say Mr. Obama's economic policies will never improve the economy. Thirty-four percent, including 31 percent of independents, say his policies will improve the economy if given more time. Just 17 percent believe his policies are currently improving the economy.Continue »
CBS News Poll analysis by the CBS News Polling Unit: Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto.
(CBS News) A majority of registered voters believe that presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney's policies favor the rich, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll.
Fifty-three percent say Romney's policies favor the wealthy. Eleven percent say his policies favor the middle class, while two percent say they favor the poor. Thirty percent say Romney's policies treat all groups equally.
Americans were split on which segment of society is favored by President Obama's policies. Twenty-one percent say his policies favor the rich, while 22 percent say they favor the middle class and 24 percent say they favor the poor. One in four say his policies treat all groups equally.
Asked separately which candidate will do more to help the middle class, 52 percent pointed to Mr. Obama, including 15 percent of Republicans. Thirty-eight percent cited Romney, including five percent of Democrats. Among independents, 48 percent cited Mr. Obama while 40 percent cited Romney.Continue »
(CBS News) Most Americans are unfamiliar with Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts or have no opinion of him. However, in the wake of Roberts' decision to side with liberals on the court and uphold President Obama's health care law, a new CBS News/ New York Times poll shows that the conservative justice is more popular among liberals than conservatives.
Among Americans overall, 73 percent have no opinion or are undecided about Roberts, according to the poll, conducted July 11-16. Fourteen percent have a favorable view of him while 12 percent have an unfavorable view.
Among self-identified conservatives, just nine percent have a favorable view of Roberts, who was appointed to the high court by President George W. Bush. Twice as many, 18 percent, have an unfavorable view. Among liberals, 13 percent have a positive view of Roberts while 8 percent have an unfavorable view. Twenty percent of moderates approve of the chief justice.
Overall views of the Supreme Court have declined slightly in the aftermath of the health care ruling. Among Americans overall, voters are now split, with 41 percent who approve of the court and 41 percent who disapprove. Another 18 percent have no opinion or don't know. In May of this year, 44 percent approved while 36 percent disapprove.Continue »
As buzz in the media about who Mitt Romney's running mate will be hits a fever pitch, 74 percent of registered voters said that a candidate's VP choice matters a lot or somewhat. Twenty-six percent of registered voters said the choice matters a lot to their vote, while 48 percent said it matters somewhat. Twenty-five percent said it doesn't matter at all.
Meantime, three and a half months before election day, Republican enthusiasm about voting this year has shot up since Mitt Romney clinched the nomination in April, from 36 percent of Republicans saying they were more enthusiastic in March to 49 percent now.Continue »
A CBS News/New York Times poll released on Thursday shows that most Americans think the Supreme Court's health care decision will be based on justices' personal and political views.
According to the poll, 55 percent of Americans believe political positions will play a role in the health care decision, compared to 32 percent who believe justices will decide the case based on legal analysis. While fewer Republicans - 48 percent - believe personal or political views play a role, there respondents of different political stripes have a similar view. Fifty-six percent of Democrats and 57 percent of independents say justices' political views will influence the health care outcome. The margin of error is three percentage points.
The Supreme Court is considered to have four liberal-leaning justices and four conservative-leaning justices with one who is considered to be the swing vote.
CBS News/ New York Times asked a similar question of the Supreme Court but did not limit it to the health care law. Seventy-six percent of respondents said Supreme Court justices' decisions are sometimes influenced by their personal views. Respondents' answers were the same regardless of political affiliation.Continue »
A new CBS News/New York Times poll finds that six in ten Americans oppose lifetime appointments for Supreme Court justices, with respondents agreeing with the idea that such appointments give the justices too much power.
Respondents were asked this question: "Which opinion comes closer to your own appointing Supreme Court Justices for life is a good thing because it helps keep them independent from political pressures, or appointing Supreme Court Justices for life is a bad thing because it gives them too much power?"
Just 33 percent said they believed lifetime appointments are a good thing because it keeps justices independent. Sixty percent said they disapprove of lifetime appointments.
Three in four said they believe the current Supreme Court justices sometimes let their own personal or political views influence their decisions. The belief crossed party lines, with roughly the same percentage of Republicans, Democrats and independents expressing that view. Only 13 percent said the justices decide cases based solely on legal analysis.Continue »
Updated 10 a.m. ET
A new CBS News/New York Times poll reveals that nearly seven in ten Americans want the Supreme Court to overturn either all or President Obama's health care law or strike down just the individual mandate.
In the poll released on Thursday, 41 percent of those polled think Mr. Obama's health care law should be overturned completely by the Supreme Court, with another 27 percent of respondents saying they want the court to keep the law but overturn the mandate.
Nearly one-quarter - twenty-four percent - of respondents want the entire law upheld. The margin of error is three percentage points.Continue »
Among voters in today's recall election, 51 percent said they would pick Mr. Obama, compared to 45 percent for Romney. Two percent say they won't vote. However, it should be noted that there is a lot of time before the November elections, and it's too soon to tell what the electorate will be like in five months.
In 2008, Mr. Obama defeated Republican Sen. John McCain by 14 percentage points in Wisconsin.
The recall election in Wisconsin pits Republican Gov. Scott Walker versus Democratic Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, in a rematch of their 2010 race. The recall effort was brought about mainly in response to Walker's plan that restricted collective bargaining rights for public union workers. Today, 52 percent of Wisconsin voters in the early exit polls have a favorable view of unions for government workers, while 43 percent have an unfavorable opinion of these unions. Among voters in unions households (public or not), 69 percent view these unions favorably.Continue »
(CBS News) One in four registered voters say they are less likely to vote for President Obama in November because he expressed support same-sex marriage, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll.
While 25 percent say the president's support for same-sex marriage makes them less likely to support his reelection, 16 percent say his position makes them more likely to support him. Fifty-eight percent say the announcement will not affect how they vote.
Republicans were most likely to say the announcement made them less likely to support the president, with 43 percent making that assertion. Even before he came out in support of same-sex marriage, Mr. Obama had little support from Republican voters. In the new survey, conducted from May 11-13, only five percent of Republicans said they would vote for the president in November.
More worrisome for the president is the percentage of Democrats and independents who say the decision will sway their views. And that figure, while smaller, is not insignificant.
Among Democrats, twelve percent say Mr. Obama's position makes them less likely to back him, while 29 percent say they are now more likely to do so. And 22 percent of independents say they are now less likely to vote for the president, while 14 percent say they are more likely to vote for him.
Twenty-three percent of registered voters, including 11 percent of Democrats and 20 percent of independents, say presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney's opposition to same-sex marriage makes them more likely to vote for him. Seventeen percent say it makes them less likely to support him, a figure that includes 20 percent of independents but just two percent of Republicans.
The survey found that 38 percent of Americans overall believe same-sex couples should be allowed to marry. Twenty-four percent said such couples should have the right to civil unions, while 33 percent said same-sex couples should have no legal recognition.
Updated: May 15, 12:45 p.m.
(CBS News) Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney has a slight edge over President Obama in the race for the White House in the latest CBS News/New York Times poll.
According to the survey, conducted May 11-13, 46 percent of registered voters say they would vote for Romney, while 43 percent say they would opt for Mr. Obama. Romney's slight advantage remains within the poll's margin of error, which is plus or minus four percentage points.
Last month, a CBS News/New York Times poll showed Mr. Obama and Romney locked in a dead heat, with both earning 46 percent support among registered voters. Polls conducted in February and March showed Mr. Obama with an advantage over Romney, while a January poll showed Romney edging out Mr. Obama 47 percent to 45 percent. Another January poll showed the two tied.
Neither candidate, however, has had more than a six-point lead over the other since CBS News/New York Times began conducting head-to-head in polls this January.
Despite recent controversies surrounding issues like same-sex marriage, which Mr. Obama came out in support of last week, the poll indicates that the economy remains the most important issue to voters in the presidential election.Poll: One in four less likely to back Obama over same-sex marriage
Poll: Most Americans support same-sex unions
Full poll results (PDF)Continue »
A new CBS News/New York Times Poll shows a solid majority of Americans support legal recognition for same-sex couples - though not necessarily through the official act of marriage - and the number of people who do support full marriage rights for gay and lesbian couples is significantly higher among younger generations.
Overall, 38 percent of those who responded to the survey said same-sex couples should be allowed to marry, just like any other couple. Another 24 percent said civil unions should be used to grant same-sex couples legal rights similar to male-female partnerships. Combined, that means 62 percent - close to two thirds - of Americans believe that same-sex unions should be recognized by law.
Of all those who participated, 33 percent said there should be no legal recognition for same-sex couples.Continue »
You probably know the headline by now: In the new CBS News/New York Times poll, President Obama and presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney are in a dead heat, with each man receiving support from 46 percent of registered voters.
But there's a lot more to the poll than just the headline. Below, five findings from the survey that provide important insights into the state of the race:
Romney has Republican support - but not their love: Republicans have united around Romney, with 54 percent now saying they support him as their nominee - up from 30 percent in March, when Rick Santorum was still in the race. But after a long and bruising primary campaign, their support is grudging at best.
Just 33 percent of GOP primary voters "enthusiastically support" Romney - less than the 40 percent who say they support him with reservations. And 18 percent say they're backing Romney only because he is the nominee. (Eight percent say they don't support Romney.) The numbers are particularly bad among white evangelicals: Just 27 percent enthusiastically support Romney, while 50 percent have reservations.
The good news for Romney is that he still has time to define himself favorably among registered voters overall. While just 13 percent say they are undecided or need to know more about Mr. Obama to decide if they have a favorable view of them, 37 percent are undecided or haven't heard enouth about Romney. Both candidates currently have underwater favorability ratings - Mr. Obama is viewed favorably by 42 percent and unfavorably by 45 percent, while Romney is viewed favorably by 29 percent and unfavorably by 34 percent - but Romney has more room to win people over. Of course, that also means the Obama campaign has room to define Romney negatively.Continue »
Americans are still largely down on the economy but have become slightly more optimistic, according to the latest CBS News/ New York Times poll.
And as President Obama and presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney lay out their competing economic visions, most Americans are confident either candidate could handle the economy. Voters are skeptical, however, that either candidate would help their own personal financial situation.
As many as seven in 10 Americans say the economy is in bad shape, according to the poll, conducted April 13-17. Another 27 percent think the economy is at in at least somewhat good shape - a low figure, but the best it's been since 2008.
The unemployment rate stood at 8.2 percent in March, and now, one third of Americans think the economy is headed in the right direction. Another 28 percent think the economy is getting worse, while 38 percent think it is staying the same.
Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to view both the condition and the direction of the economy favorably. Fifty-four percent of Democrats think the economy is getting better, and 42 percent think its condition is at least somewhat good. Only 16 percent of Republicans think the economy is getting better, and just 5 percent call the economy good.Continue »
Updated 6:30 p.m. Eastern Time
Mitt Romney has closed the gap with President Obama among registered voters, a CBS News/New York Times poll released Wednesday found, putting the former Massachusetts governor in a dead heat with the president for the White House.
Mr. Obama and Romney each received support from 46 percent of registered voters when asked who they would vote for if the election were held today. In March, a CBS News/New York Times survey found that Mr. Obama held a slight advantage over Romney of 47 percent to 44 percent.
The poll was conducted between last Friday and Tuesday, days after former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum suspended his campaign, effectively making Romney the presumptive nominee to take on the president in the fall. Texas Rep. Ron Paul and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich remain in the race but face Romney's all-but-insurmountable lead in delegates and fundraising ahead of the Republican convention this summer in Tampa, Fla.Continue »
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